US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

CM was 113.5m away from 400m going into the weekend. With a 34.3m weekend, it needs to pull a 3.3x off of that to get to 400m and something like a 3.7x to get to Wonder Woman. Currently CM is holding more like a 2.6-2.7x. Even with some better weekly holds and an Endgame boost, I think it comes in around 395m unless Disney fudges.

2.6 mutli would 397 and 2.7 413 🤷‍♂️

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

Biggest Domestic March Movie Openings
	Beauty and The Beast	Multiplier	Batman v Superman	Multiplier	Captain Marvel	Multiplier	The Hunger Games	Multiplier
Release	2017-03-17		2016-03-25		2019-03-08		2012-03-23
Day 1	$63.8M	0.36	$81.6M	0.49	$61.7M	0.40	$67.3M	0.44
Day 2	$62.7M	0.72	$50.7M	0.80	$52.9M	0.75	$50.4M	0.77
Day 3	$48.3M	1.00	$33.8M	1.00	$38.8M	1.00	$34.9M	1.00
Day 4	$13.5M	1.08	$15.0M	1.09	$11.0M	1.07	$10.8M	1.07
Day 5	$17.9M	1.18	$12.2M	1.16	$14.6M	1.17	$10.3M	1.14
Day 6	$11.5M	1.25	$8.1M	1.21	$8.6M	1.22	$8.1M	1.19
Day 7	$10.9M	1.31	$7.7M	1.26	$9.2M	1.28	$8.2M	1.25
Day 8	$23.6M	1.44	$15.0M	1.35	$19.0M	1.41	$18.7M	1.37
Day 9	$38.3M	1.66	$22.3M	1.48	$29.4M	1.60	$24.7M	1.53
Day 10	$28.5M	1.83	$14.0M	1.57	$19.5M	1.73	$15.2M	1.63
Day 11	$7.1M	1.87	$3.2M	1.59	$5.2M	1.76	$4.5M	1.66
Day 12	$9.5M	1.92	$4.1M	1.61	$7.6M	1.81	$5.3M	1.69
Day 13	$6.3M	1.96	$2.8M	1.63	$4.6M	1.84	$4.6M	1.72
Day 14	$6.1M	1.99	$2.7M	1.65	$4.2M	1.87	$6.4M	1.77
Day 15	$12.8M	2.06	$6.1M	1.68	$9.1M	1.93	$12.8M	1.85
Day 16	$19.5M	2.18	$10.7M	1.75	$15.1M	2.03	$13.0M	1.93
Day 17	$13.1M	2.25	$6.6M	1.79	$10.0M	2.09	$7.3M	1.98
Final	$504.0M	2.88	$330.4M	1.99	TBD	TBD	$408.0M	2.67
Days to 90% Total Gross	31 Days		18 Days		TBD		37 Days
Display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand

 

CM is currently in between these two movies presently, one that got 90% domestic total in 37 days and the other in 31 days. MCU first entry movies have hit 90% an average of 31 days with an average multiplier of 2.99. The current range has been a floor of 23 days for The Incredible Hulk (2.43) and a ceiling of 43 days with Guardians of the Galaxy (3.53).

CM = THG 2.67 + 0.11 = 2.78 

CM = BaTB 2.88 - 0.16 = 2.72

 

Captain Marvel just needs a greater than 2.6 multiplier to hit $400M. A 2.6 multiplier would be the second worst first entry multiplier in the MCU after The Incredible Hulk not accounting for the calendar. But maybe its Thursday Preview to First Weekend multiplier being as low as it was for a first entry portended a more frontloaded than average run.

ok so you mean a multi likely 2.7 ? then thats very good

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Bishop54 said:

Alia way up with actuals...Queen Rosa slaying it.

WAY up? I mean 1.015 to 1.083 is certainly AN increase, but I wouldn't consider it at all substantial lol

[Rthmessiah]

56 minutes ago, Rthmar-vell said:

Canada WE

#1 CM, #2 Us, #3 FFA, #4 WP, #5 HTTYD3, #6 Kesari (actually #12 Domestic)

 

46 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That's quite the disparity

Domestic nearly all BO horror comes from USA. Canada is same as number of countries where horror for most part under performs. Us % of Domestic  was similar to GO & Halloween

 

@cax16

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, Rthmar-vell said:

 

Domestic nearly all BO horror comes from USA. Canada is same as number of countries where horror for most part under performs. Us % of Domestic  was similar to GO & Halloween

 

@cax16

Horror hardly ever does crazy business at my local theatre in Canada, with the exception of It and Split. Are there any exceptions to the general rule of "horror not doing great in Canada"?

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

My first reflex was really, possible to miss 400M ? Considering the 45m advance with Wonder Woman after 17 days and 18M above the 408m Hunger Games, but:

 

	Captain Marvel	Hunger Game		Beauty		Wonder Woman		Jurassic world 2		Gotg 2
Week1	$196.9 M	$189.9 M	104%	$228.6 M	86%	$147.8 M	133%	$204.8 M	96%	$183.2 M	108%
Week2	$89.6 M	$79.4 M	113%	$119.3 M	75%	$86.0 M	104%	$100.0 M	90%	$83.6 M	107%
Week3	$34.3 M	$46.2 M	74%	$59.4 M	58%	$59.4 M	58%	$43.0 M	80%	$46.6 M	74%

 

Weekly box office is going relatively down quite a bit versus other 400m+ movies and good competition is starting.

 

Legs, week 3 multiplier

Jurassic World 2 added 1.603 times week 3 to it's total.

Beauty and the beast added 1.63 times week 3 to it's total.

Guardian 2  added 1.64 times week 3 to it's total.

Hunger games added 2x times it's week 3 to it's total.

Wonder woman added 2.01 times it's week 3 to it's total.

 

2.0 legs (that look like that on the great legs side) would push it to 320.75+ 34.3*2 = 390m for a 2.54 multi,

1.65 legs (that look like that on the sequel/very hyped side) would push it to 320.75+ 34.3*1.65 = 377m for a 2.45 multi (hard to believe that one),

 

That does look a bit low, maybe that 34.3M week is a bit of an anomaly/last week burning some demand anormally big, Us giant 70m+ affair effect or something ?

 

 

 

It’s because CM week 3 only has 3 out of 7 days  contributing 😛  

 

Will be 45M+

[Jim Shorts]

I was hoping A Star Is Born would have enough left in the tank to pass Bohemian Rhapsody but doesn't look like its going to happen.  So close!!  

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

  Hide contents

 

 

 

It’s because CM week 3 only has 3 out of 7 days  contributing 😛  

  

Will be 45M+

Ahhhhhhh !!!!

 

That it, with movie starting thursday week does not end on sunday at all.

 

Thank you.

 

45 * 1.65 + 331 = 405m

45 * 2 + 331 = 421m

 

That make much more sense.

 

[Rthmessiah]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Horror hardly ever does crazy business at my local theatre in Canada, with the exception of It and Split. Are there any exceptions to the general rule of "horror not doing great in Canada"?

Off the cuff Conjuring universe, some of the PA films. It & Split OWe good numbers but low %, but overall run they improved.

 

[Jake Gittes]

40 minutes ago, john2000 said:

2.6 mutli would 397 and 2.7 413 🤷‍♂️

Weekend should be included in the # that needs to be made. 34.3m is part of the 114m CM needed to make to get to 400 as of Thursday, just like any movie's OW is, y'know, part of its total gross and thus the multi. @AndyChrono is one of the very few people I've seen on here not to make this mistake.

[cax16]

33 minutes ago, Rthmar-vell said:

 

Domestic nearly all BO horror comes from USA. Canada is same as number of countries where horror for most part under performs. Us % of Domestic  was similar to GO & Halloween

 

@cax16

Ty!

[terrestrial]

Someone had asked for Deadline's yearly most valuable movies.

It just started

 

Deadline Hollywood‏Verified account @DEADLINE 3m3 minutes ago

More

Deadline’s 2018 Most Valuable Movie Blockbuster Tournament Gets Underway: No. 10 ‘A Star Is Born’

[PDC1987]

1 hour ago, Jim Shorts said:

I was hoping A Star Is Born would have enough left in the tank to pass Bohemian Rhapsody but doesn't look like its going to happen.  So close!!  

LOL, not "close" at all. They re-expanded ASIB about 765 times, including a new cut of the film last time, yet it's still $700,000 behind and now making less per day. BR also had better PTAs the last 2 weeks.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Someone had asked for Deadline's yearly most valuable movies.

It just started

 

Deadline Hollywood‏Verified account @DEADLINE 3m3 minutes ago

More

Deadline’s 2018 Most Valuable Movie Blockbuster Tournament Gets Underway: No. 10 ‘A Star Is Born’ 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/a-star-is-born-box-office-profit-2018-1202580798/

 

Lot of strange / typo ?

Budget: 36m

Participations: 35m

 

Not accounted for here is the revenue from the hit soundtrack, which was a driving force for this picture’s success, racking up 4 billion in album sales worldwide and 2 billion streams worldwide. 

 

1) I imagine those are millions and not B.

2)  If a 34M just below the lines in California gross budget movie (with $7M tax credits) end up being only $36M net, that mean everyone worked on a very low salary and make the paying only 35m in participation with those Cooper, Roth, Gaga, Todd Philips, Jon Peters, names involved look quite low.

 

35m is less than 10% gross or around 16% profit type of deals. If they really kept a movie like that performing like that to under 75m in total budget + bonus cost, kudos to them, incredibly good deal. Captain Philips at 350m WW box office was already at 80m in bonus (and people got paid with that 60m net budget), I would imagine those low salary tend to come with better back end deal in exchange.

 

 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Barnack

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

Uh-oh...actuals for CM went down. 

Floptain Marvel 

[Nero]

1 hour ago, LouisianaArkansasGeorgia said:

Uh-oh...actuals for CM went down. 

Floptain Marvel 

But it went up 2.1M+ in OS 

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

https://deadline.com/2019/03/a-star-is-born-box-office-profit-2018-1202580798/

 

Lot of strange / typo ?

Budget: 36m

Participations: 35m

 

Not accounted for here is the revenue from the hit soundtrack, which was a driving force for this picture’s success, racking up 4 billion in album sales worldwide and 2 billion streams worldwide. 

 

1) I imagine those are millions and not B.

2)  If a 34M just below the lines in California gross budget movie (with $7M tax credits) end up being only $36M net, that mean everyone worked on a very low salary and make the paying only 35m in participation with those Cooper, Roth, Gaga, Todd Philips, Jon Peters, names involved look quite low.

 

35m is less than 10% gross or around 16% profit type of deals. If they really kept a movie like that performing like that to under 75m in total budget + bonus cost, kudos to them, incredibly good deal. Captain Philips at 350m WW box office was already at 80m in bonus (and people got paid with that 60m net budget), I would imagine those low salary tend to come with better back end deal in exchange.

 

 

For albums sold it would be 4 million but for streams it would probably be 2b streams - especially considering the number of songs in play.  Shallow alone has 436m on YT.

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

Just now, Nero said:

But it went up 2.1M+ in OS 

Meh.

It will never surpass Avatar, therefore Captain Flopvel.

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, LouisianaArkansasGeorgia said:

Meh.

It will never surpass Avatar, therefore Captain Flopvel.

Ah, I see we have someone who is less concerned with box office and more concerned with eliciting reactions out of people  

 

Anyone who knows anything about box office understands... you know what it's not even worth my time. Go take a look at Mojo if you actually care lol

[Nero]

4 minutes ago, LouisianaArkansasGeorgia said:

Meh.

It will never surpass Avatar, therefore Captain Flopvel.

Whatever suits you