Tuesday Numbers: US $8.03M

[cdsacken]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Again you and others have brought this up but the problem is we do not have all of the costs detailed in front of us. We are guessing based on maybe one good source....  maybe..   if that...    I don't like spending a lot of time on something where I can't look at the raw numbers. There were people saying such and such movie needs to make oh $900M to break even and I'm thinking okay,  maybe Deadline has a source on that but where is the actual numbers?  If the numbers aren't in front of me then I'm not too interested in discussing that. 

What needs to make 900m to break even? 

[sfran43]

 

[Johnny Tran]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Agree totally to It

 

Nope, the discussion started around a week back when certain people tried to proof a certain mp can only mean this and not also that.

Formulated partly in absolute wordings, summary a bit like:

if an mp is lets say 2.2 it can only mean the movie is bad in the POV of all

For some the discussion is ongoing, for some, who might have missed the posts at other places, the discussion was about a bit another focus, like comparing high OW in one month to lower OW at another month, but both with the ~ same end-result .... as said a bit criss-cross

 

I was not expecting a huge multiplier on CM.  Most MCU movies these days it's going to be a huge opening weekend and then so-so legs because so much interest was already burned off on the opening weekend. 

 

It's great that Wonder Woman can have a good opening weekend and then WOM kicks in and it ends up have this colossal multiplier. That's awesome and it speaks to how well Wonder Woman was received by audiences. 

 

I think people want to point to a multiplier with CM and say "look,  it's not that well received" but that's tough to do with such a huge OW and other factors in play like it not being a summer movie etc..  

 

But then I look at Black Panther and it opened to $200M and still made it to $700M.  So it will end up with a better multiplier than CM and also had a bigger opening weekend,  all that can suggest is that Black Panther was very well received and basically a cultural phenomenon in North America. I don't think that can be argued. 

 

CM there is an argument to be made on both sides..  A softer multi could point to it being just an "ok" movie through the eyes of most. But it doesn't mean necessarily that is the case. It's going to end up making as much in NA as Wonder Woman.  

 

It sucks but with Wonder Woman you could say yes it was very well received but with CM it's harder to reach the same conclusion because of the hye surrounding the opening weekend. 

 

Here's the thing. There is NEVER going to be a confirmation on CM on either side. I think there is more out there to suggest that it is well received but the trolls DO have an argument and as long as there is a possible argument then the war will rage on for eternity.  

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

very good jump for captain marvel now wait for the overreaction with the thursday numbers

1.5 😮 just kidding. Probably 2.65? I forget what I predicted earlier. I did the math but I'm feeling lazy

Edited March 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[Premium George]

Read between the lines. Johny Tran will never make such posts for DC movies. He is ignoring all logic provided by other posters 'cos it ruins his made up situation. First, he said budget of CM and F8 is same. When told, not even close, now budgets don't matter. Aquamam, wonder womam, IT, Bohemian Rhapsody, all had better box office run reception than F8. 'cos their budgets are much lower and they are first entries and not sequel to $1.5 billion grosser. Why it should be different for CM?

[andersonhoran]

So where are the haters now talking shit about monday numbers? Captain Marvel queen of tuesdays 

[john2000]

Just now, andersonhoran said:

So where are the haters now talking shit about monday numbers? Captain Marvel queen of tuesdays 

they will come back again with tommorrow numbers dont worry 

[cdsacken]

Gotg 2 is 2.5 million Wednesday, 2.4 Thursday, 5.375 Friday and 7.88 Saturday. CM has to chance to beat every one of them.

[YM!]

And this is why it’s hard for me to get hyped for CBMs nowadays.

[FilmBuff]

LAG gives me the GAG reflex.

[Johnny Tran]

2 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Read between the lines. Johny Tran will never make such posts for DC movies. He is ignoring all logic provided by other posters 'cos it ruins his made up situation. First, he said budget of CM and F8 is same. When told, not even close, now budgets don't matter. Aquamam, wonder womam, IT, Bohemian Rhapsody, all had better box office run reception than F8. 'cos their budgets are much lower and they are first entries and not sequel to $1.5 billion grosser. Why it should be different for CM?

I don't know what you just said or are implying rather, your post is all over the place. I made it clear that I wasn't going to discuss budget/production/marketing costs because there isn't enough information in front of us,  there aren't real numbers to look at. I don't care much for hypothetical situations like "if it cost $200M and then factor in another $150M"...   no.  If you want to play that game by all means but I am not going to spend time going down a rabbit role that leads to nowhere.  You need information and the info isn't in front of us. 

[Mulder]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

And this is why it’s hard for me to get hyped for CBMs nowadays.

It's a lot easier when you ignore the fandoms entirely.

[Brainbug]

I didnt expect to see hell this early in the week. I mean Wednesday threads, i expect to see it in Wednesday threads but Tuesday ....?

[Matthew]

Fandom wars are useless. DC and Marvel are making loads of money and we here are trash talking each other. 

 

Try to be better and not participate in this. 

 

I am genuinely concern about next week. If Shazam opens less than Ant Man OW than whole internet will go into wars. 😳😳😳

[sfran43]

 

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's a lot easier when you ignore the fandoms entirely.

Or the idiotic trollish rivalries. I loved Aquaman and WW and really liked CM. BP was my favorite of the last couple years.

[andersonhoran]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

they will come back again with tommorrow numbers dont worry 

Can't wait for when the movie cross 1B just to see them bleeding on their chairs. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by andersonhoran

[LouisianaArkansasGeorgia]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

Damn! I just realized that Perry-directed films have grossed over a billion dollars. And with his relatively  tiny budgets, the guy must certainly be one of Hollywood's most profitable directors.

Good for him.

[baumer]

So we still do not have a number for us right now except for wife Scott Mendelson gave us

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

Sorry I don't think the "intelligent" thing to do is play around with numbers that aren't in front of us. We can play around with the box office numbers because that is reported to us.  I can't play around with a number that might be $155M but might also be $200M but because of tax breaks might be less and so and so on. 

 

If you want to have that discussion that's fine,  that's not a conversation I want to have unless I have the data in front of me. Good day. 

There people here might be able to help

 

E.g.

Depending where a movie is filmed, there are partly exact numbers to find about the real production costs and the rebates (see exact especially in UK, but also in Atlanta might be a bit less exact)

 

There is the agreed on budget, what the people who give the money (not always studios) are willing to spend.

Then there is the real production costs. That is usually the budget agreed on plus the money they can spend additional based on tax rebates and other forms to reduce costs.

E.g. in the most cities you have to pay for filming there, for the costs you cause, like police,...

But sometimes a city gives you money so you show their city or up their reputation.

That money goes into the pot you can spend without going over budget.

And that is also the reason so often people get either confused or do not belief in numbers anymore.

Good example the additional costs for FF7, but also the insurance pay out. If I remember it right, the agreed on budget got not risked for that 'detail'

Agreed on budget = usually less than production budget

 

But to get the movie as seen as profitable, is about the agreed on budget as the difference to the production budget is already back

 

Plus distribution costs worldwide

That can be a lot to less than people might assume.

For dom there are websites that track how much advertising on TV,... was ordered

Out of that we know certain distributors tend to spend a lot more money than others on that, beside GA often not realising it.

Translation costs sometimes you know per local articles,...

 

The problem with the tax rebates is: it happens long after the movie is in release. Count on 2y+ Hence why I at earliest look into more details for a film that late. At that time also articles tend to start to give some details. Google translate is my friend for that

 

A lot of advertising + distribution: for the big earners often $100m - $150m, but for the real expensive movies seldom even more. Very seldom.

 

Returns: Disney is bad with returns from cinemas. As in bad for the cinemas. They pressure a lot. If they are sure about a success. If less, a bit better.

That counts ww. There is a lot to find about details for it, as again and again there is clash for that in a lot of countries.

Some movie's details get named per MPAA statements.

Best is to collect tons and materials, and save all you can get. Compare,.... develop a kind of model. Its fascinating.

 

Be aware: big stars often get % after the release too, or their managers (the actual clash between agents and talents gives details too)

TV rights are often calculated out of OWs. Worldwide rights are usually split up, can be part of a package, there are rules of thumbs known

 

Deadline with their annual reports only calculates them out of industry averages. Sadly. Even of details are known....