Weekend Thread: weekend #s (Actuals) Dumbo $45.99M, Us $33.23M, CM $20.66M

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Us’ number is actually very good. Deadline said earlier that its Friday was showing 9M. 10.4M puts its Friday increase at over 120% from a Thursday of 4,45M. With RTH’s number of 10.4, it should have a weekend in the mid 30s, which would amount to less than a 50% drop. That would be excellent, especially for a horror. I dok’t get the doom and gloom analysis about it burning off demand. 

 

CM’s number is okay and prettty much what was expected. Dumbo’s number seems underwhelming. 

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Dumbo being this more frontloaded than Cinderella and Oz is pretty baffling 

I said before that it'd be more front-loaded, just by virtue of preview/midnight screenings being exponentially more popular now than they were in 2013/2015. Don't expect great legs since a better reviewed/more colourful 4-quadrant family film is out next week

[Mulder]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm not going to fully commit to this take until Sat number roll in for Dumbo, but I gotta say I'm not really surprised if it does come in low.  Pre-sales were just blah all the way leading up to release.  Yes, it's a family movie, so it's much much MUCH more walkup based.  But even then, just..

 

...

 

Blah really is the best word I can use.  Never got the sense it would crash and burn like AWiT did, but I also didn't get a whiff of it taking off (no pun intended).  Took a peek at Fandango sales earlier today, and it was still pretty meh.

 

So I can't say I'm surprised by this.

 

And, no, wasn't hoping for it to happen.  Really had no opinion of the film, one way or the other.

 

Will be interesting to see the legs for this, though.  When it comes to family films, it's probably on the younger side than Shazam!, so it might appeal to a slightly different set.  And while Endgame is going to be a true 4 quad monster, it's just not the same as "My kid is screaming and I want to shut them up for a couple of hours, let's go to something that looks fun" type movie.

 

Actually, really am interested to see just how the Dumbo/Shazam! battle plays out when it comes to legs.  On the one hand, Shazam! should get its legs cut out from under it with another CBM out so soon (not to mention another one still in theaters).  On the other hand, it's very well reviewed and it's a different type of CBM than ether CM or Endgame.  Meanwhile Dumbo is more of the stereotypical family film, but the jury might still be out on the WOM, though that CinemasScore is a good sign.

 

Really interesting from a data nerd viewpoint to see how it all plays out.

This is why you're one of the best members on this site tbh.

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Huh CM has been majorly lagging behind Wonder Woman since last weekend. What are you talking about?

Yes I haven't been following the box office that closely lately, you are correct that Captain Marvel is falling behind in day to day, my bad. With that said, I have a hard time not seeing Captain Marvel not topping both Civil War and Wonder Woman unadjusted. It's just a perfect storm. I'll try to elaborate the numbers later.

[TMP]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

When it comes to family films, it's probably on the younger side than Shazam!, so it might appeal to a slightly different set.

This is so interesting, since - based on the trailers - Dumbo is a darkly lit, serious-looking film with baby elephants crying while Shazam! looks like an incredibly fun romp; but based on every single review I've read for both, Shazam's a lot less kid-friendly than the new Tim Burton joint.

[cdsacken]

US is close to where I thought it would be. Predicted 37 million weekend. Might be 35 to 36 and change

 

10.4

14.4

11.4

 

I literally predicted exactly 5.5 for CM Friday last Sunday. Curious to see actual

 

 

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Yes I haven't been following the box office that closely lately, you are correct that Captain Marvel is falling behind in day to day, my bad. With that said, I have a hard time not seeing Captain Marvel not topping both Civil War and Wonder Woman unadjusted. It's just a perfect storm. I'll try to elaborate the numbers later.

in DOM it's possible, late legs will probably be awesome thought next weekend I imagine not so much. Next 4 after though should be damn good.

[Krissykins]

I wouldn’t have been surprised with a 60% drop for Us considering it’s very strange and opened so big. Happy with these numbers. 

 

I hope Captain Marvel slows down, I don’t want it to pass WW domestically just because lol. But if it’s at 350m by Sunday off a $20m weekend it most likely will do $420+ 

Edited March 30, 2019 by Krissykins

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, TMP said:

This is so interesting, since - based on the trailers - Dumbo is a darkly lit, serious-looking film with baby elephants crying while Shazam! looks like an incredibly fun romp; but based on every single review I've read for both, Shazam's a lot less kid-friendly than the new Tim Burton joint.

I just think the power of baby elephants trumps all in this sort of battle (i.e. which is more appealing to young kids).  

 

And it's not like kids aren't used to sad things.  They just have to be relatable sad things. 

 

====

 

Now this is just a gut instinct, mind.  Plus we're also talking about at least in part to what the parents decide to take the tykes to. 

 

And it's not like Shazam! won't be kid-friendly as well, it will.  Just in a lot more of a pure old school comic book movie sort of way.

[ZattMurdock]

22 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I wouldn’t have been surprised with a 60% drop for Us considering it’s very strange and opened so big. Happy with these numbers. 

 

I hope Captain Marvel slows down, I don’t want it to pass WW domestically just because lol. But if it’s at 350m by Sunday off a $20m weekend it most likely will do $420+ 

I think both Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman are very important films for the superhero genre but for different reasons. I love both films, but something a friend told me made me understand a bit more why Carol has been as much embraced as Diana: she said that while she loves Wonder Woman, she's a goddess, someone you look up to instead of someone you see yourself within the film. 

 

As for me, I'm just happy that the new generation have these two excellent superheroine films to look up to and cheer for.

[Krissykins]

19 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

As for me, I'm just happy that the new generation have these two excellent superheroine films to look up to and cheer for.

I absolutely agree  

 

Here’s to plenty more, too! 

[Porthos]

Quote

UPDATE, SATURDAY AM: Dumbo doesn’t stink like the elephant pen at the zoo, but his estimated $14.8M Friday and $44M isn’t a skyrocket in flight either. If this Disney $170M live action adaptation of the classic 1941 feature toon is going to clear $50M for the weekend, Jumbo Jr. is going to have to do $22M on Saturday, which is 49% more than Friday, and right now he’s figured to do only $18.5M, +25%.

 

On the bright side, Dumbo roared to an A- CinemaScore, which is the same grade as director Tim Burton’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland, but with general audiences the pachyderm pic only gets 3 1/2 stars on PostTrak and with parents and kids under 12, 4 1/2 stars each.  General audiences made up 53% of tonight’s crowd, parents 16% and kids 32%.

Quote

While Jordan Peele’s Us doesn’t have the jaw-dropping second weekend dip that Get Out did at -15%, pic’s weekend 2 decline of $33.6M, -53% is still respectable as the average horror pic drops -60% to -65%. African Americans are leading the way in PostTrak exits in weekend 2 at 37%, followed by Caucasian at 32%, Hispanic at 19% and Asian 7%. Close to an even four-quad movie here age-wise which is how a studio likes it Men under 25 (27% who gave the pic its best demo grades at 84% positive), Men over 25 (21%),  Females under 25 (25%) and Females over 25 (26%). Ten total is $128.2M.

 

We’ll expound more in the AM, but PureFlix’s anti-abortion movie Unplanned despite all the controversy and the fact that they couldn’t get cable ad spot time or even Christian radio airtime is shaping up to be distributor’s second best opening ever since they handled their own product with $6.2M after God’s Not Dead 2 ($7.6M). Four stars on PostTrak, 80% positive and a 65% definite recommend from its audience. Females over 25 at 51% were the biggest draw, followed by Men over 25 (27%), Females under 25 (13%), and Males under 25 (10%). Females like the movie better than guys, 81% to 77% but the younger under 25 crowd enjoyed the movie more than those over that age, 87% to 78%.

 

Quote

Bleecker Street/ShivHans acquisition of Weinstein Co.’s Hotel Mumbai via Lantern in its weekend 2 wide break is making $3.5M in 8th place at 924 venues for a $3.58M ten-day total. 3 1/2 stars and a 48% definite recommend on PostTrak isn’t the strongers, but Men under 25, the pic’s third biggest demo at 20% loved the pic the most at 93% positive.  Men over 25 the biggest group at 33% liked it the least at 69%, with females over 25 (28% turnout, 77% positive),  and Females under 25 (19% with an 85% positive).

 

NEON’s The Beach Bum is grossing $1.8M for the weekend at 1,015 and reps Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey’s lowest opening ever for a wide release. Beach Bum is lower in its estimated 3-day from the actor’s previous January disaster Serenity which was shortchanged by Aviron in its P&A, though the movie opened in a wider number of theaters during weekend 1 at 2,561 earning $4.4M.

 

McConaughey’s Mud even opened to more money with $2.2M and that was on fewer screens at 363. Prior to Beach Bum, McConaughey’s lowest headliner opening was for Weinstein Co’s Gold which debuted to $3.4M. Granted, helmer Harmony Korine is an acquired test and this was an indie pic made for a reported $5M. If only PostTrak audiences were actually high when they saw the movie, they may have given this alright, alright grades, but no with a paltry 2 1/2 stars and a low blow definite recommend of 36%. Men under and over 25 came out equally at 31%.

 

 

Deadline update.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Johnny Tran]

Deadline having Us at $33.6M seems very low.  

[Porthos]

That PostTrack split for Dumbo between the general audience and families/young kids does seem to be in line with what we're already hearing when it comes to immediate reactions.  Parents and young kids are giving it the stamp of approval; most other people seem to be meh.

 

Should mean decent enough legs though, as family films do tend to be leggy, even in the face of stiff competition. 

[Porthos]

BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 29-31

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY 3-DAY TOTAL WK 1 Dumbo Dis 4,259 $14.8M $44M $44M 1 2 Us Uni 3,743 (+2) $10.3M (-65%) $33.6M(-53%)  $128.2M 2 3 Captain Marvel Dis 3,985  (-293) $5.5M (-40%) $20.2M  (-41%) $353.5M 4 4 Five Feet Apart CBS 2,846 (-20) $2M (-26%) $6.3M  (-26%) $35.9M 3 5 Unplanned PF 1,059 $2.45M $6.2M $6.2M 1 6 Wonder Park Par 2,187 (-163) $1.2M (-44%) $4.8M  (-45%) $37.7M 3 7 …Dragon 3 DWA/Uni 2,785 (-562) $1.1M (-33) $4.2M  (-34%) $153M 6 8 Hotel Mumbai BST 924 (+920) $1.1M (+4200%) $3.4M(+3843%)  $3.6M 2 9 A Madea Funeral LG 1,923 (-264) $715K (-40%) $2.5M (-41%) $69.9M 5 10 The Beach Bum NEON 1,015 $675K $1.8M $1.8M 1

 

 

(Deadline chart update)

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

Deadline must be projecting 26 or 27% Saturday increase and a 20% Sunday decrease for US with those projections. Seems too pessimistic. Bet it does 35+ up to 37.

Edited March 30, 2019 by cdsacken

[LexJoker]

FLOPBO

[Matthew]

So my prediction.. 

 

Dumbo 48M

 

Us 35M

 

CM 21M 

[Curtis1986]

Wow. Not good at all for Dumbo

[Krissykins]

An anti-abortion movie? 

 

What a fun time at the cinema! 

 

Americans are weird.