Ms Lady Hawk Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, tawasal said: HG: 408m/152m = 2.68x CF: 424m/158m = 2.68x CM: 153m*2.68 = 410m Even if it had HG legs it won't reach CF's 424m. Even CF's legs translate to the same as HG's. Catching Fire also had some insanely low Sunday to Monday drops which CM will not see for the duration of its run. Why the comparison to HG and CF, when they are further away in time and not Superhero movies? Why not use Civil War, which was at over 377 million at same point in time, yet finished at ~408 with “summer” weekdays? If you want to argue good late legs from a SH movie, then as Baumer pointed out the other day, use SM:HC. CM is going to need that type of late legs to reach 415-420... Some incredible legs would get it to 425. Seems lofty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said: Catching Fire also had some insanely low Sunday to Monday drops which CM will not see for the duration of its run. Why the comparison to HG and CF, when they are further away in time and not Superhero movies? Why not use Civil War, which was at over 377 million at same point in time, yet finished at ~408 with “summer” weekdays? If you want to argue good late legs from a SH movie, then as Baumer pointed out the other day, use SM:HC. CM is going to need that type of late legs to reach 415-420... Some incredible legs would get it to 425. Seems lofty. It has already surpassed Civil War's legs, with less OW take. Really there is no single good comparison to these movie with the same range of OW. These are probably the best comparisons we have, but none of them had Easter on the same weekend or the same competition. Quote 5 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $116,101,023 34.7% 3,728 $31,143 $334,191,110 3/5/10 4 The Hunger Games LGF $152,535,747 37.4% 4,137 $36,871 $408,010,692 3/23/12 2 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice WB $166,007,347 50.3% 4,242 $39,134 $330,360,194 3/25/16 ALICE did 2.87x OW THG did 2.68x OW BVS did 1.98x OW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 CM is now at 2.32x OW, another 45m from here on will give the same multiplier as CF and THG 2.68x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) It’s been tracking Kong extremely closely in % for the first 25 days. The OW sizes might make you a bit hesitant, but they are both Brie Larson+SLJ action movies opening on the same March weekend with roughly similar Easter schedules. Edited April 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: It’s been tracking Kong extremely closely in % for the first 18 days. The OW sizes might make you a bit hesitant, but they are both Brie Larson+SLJ action movies opening on the same March weekend with roughly similar Easter schedules. This a perfect comparison almost, because the friday, saturday and mondays look identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said: Catching Fire also had some insanely low Sunday to Monday drops which CM will not see for the duration of its run. Why the comparison to HG and CF, when they are further away in time and not Superhero movies? Why not use Civil War, which was at over 377 million at same point in time, yet finished at ~408 with “summer” weekdays? If you want to argue good late legs from a SH movie, then as Baumer pointed out the other day, use SM:HC. CM is going to need that type of late legs to reach 415-420... Some incredible legs would get it to 425. Seems lofty. SMH made 60M$ after a 13M$ 4th weekend - it dropped 62%-50% and 40% after its first weekend CM is coming off a 20,6M$ 4th weekend and it dropped 56%-50% and 40% after its first weekend CM doesn't need the same SMH legs to get to 415M$. It needs a 3X from its 4th weekend to achieve 415M$ and 3,5X to match HG:CF. SMH got a 4,6X multi after that 4th weekend. CW made 35M$ after a 15M$ 4th weekend which was Memorial day WE. It dropped 60%-55% and 53% (Sunday boosted by Memorial day). It achieved a 2,3X multi after its 4th weekend Civil War is a poor comparison for the later part of the run because it was clearly already dropping like a rock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Kong: SI Spoiler CM Spoiler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 33 minutes ago, cdsacken said: I'm not going into politics. The story itself is full of blatant lies to push one narrative. I'm not pro-choice but suffice to say I loathe liars. Murder is politics...sad thing really. So I'm intrigued you saw the film and know for certain the details are fabricated and full of lies. Good to know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DisposedData Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Fallen Kingdom seems like the best CM comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, tawasal said: Kong: SI Hide contents CM Hide contents That's a very good comparison, might be enough to make me see the light on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) Kong weekly drops: -53.5 -47.2 -41.5 CM weekly drops: -54.5 -47.7 - ~40.6 (estimate based on last week’s T,W,Thu %s) It’s kind of uncanny, though I expect the next two weeks will mess it up a bit as CM has Shazam week 5 (where Kong was really strong) and then Kong got hit hard by F8 in week 6). Edited April 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Kong's multiplier was 2.75x, so I am hoping somewhere between 2.6x to 2.75x multiplier for CM. That will translate to: 153*2.6 = 397.8m to 153*2.75 = 420.75m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordNox Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Kong weekly drops: -53.5 -47.2 -41.5 CM weekly drops: -54.5 -47.7 - ~40.6 (estimate based on last week’s T,W,Thu %s) It’s kind of uncanny, though I expect the next two weeks will mess it up a bit as CM has Shazam week 5 (where Kong was really strong) and then Kong got hit hard by F8 in week 6). Shazam is selling so badly on presales that it will have minimal impact on Captain Marvel. This is good for Captain Marvel's legs that Shazam is posed for a very weak opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 I think 2.6 is almost impossible at this point. If it go no boost at all from End game and fell hard every week I guess. Seems like absolute floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Could Hellboy opener higher than Shazam? Any news on pre-sales for that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, cdsacken said: I think 2.6 is almost impossible at this point. If it go no boost at all from End game and fell hard every week I guess. Seems like absolute floor. I don't get what you are trying to say. Are you saying it's impossible for CM to get 2.6x multiplier or that 2.6x multiplier is the floor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, LordNox said: Shazam is selling so badly on presales that it will have minimal impact on Captain Marvel. This is good for Captain Marvel's legs that Shazam is posed for a very weak opening. You wrote more or less the same thing on the previous page. We get it! You want Shazam to tank. Perhaps, your banning from the tracking thread didn’t get the point across that trolls are not really appreciated here on BOT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, tawasal said: I don't get what you are trying to say. Are you saying it's impossible for CM to get 2.6x multiplier or that 2.6x multiplier is the floor? I'm suggesting that 2.6 is the absolute floor and incredibly unlikely that's all it finishes with It will likely be at 2.41 or higher by the end of the week after it's 5th weekend. At that point End Game is only 2.5 weeks away. Edited April 2, 2019 by cdsacken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, cdsacken said: I'm suggesting that 2.6 is the absolute floor and incredibly unlikely that's all it finishes with It will likely be at 2.41 or higher by the end of the week after it's 5th weekend. At that point End Game is only 2.5 weeks away. I am sorry, now it's all clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
