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Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | April 15, 2022 | Final Trailer on Page 75

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18 hours ago, Xavier said:

One reason the FB films failed was the awful gloomy murky cinematography which has gotten progressively worse since Order of the Phoenix, the only exception being Half Blood Prince. The best cinematography was in Prisoner of Azkaban btw...

 

HALF-BLOOD PRINCE's cinematography was really good.

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On 1/19/2023 at 10:00 AM, Xavier said:

One reason the FB films failed was the awful gloomy murky cinematography which has gotten progressively worse since Order of the Phoenix, the only exception being Half Blood Prince. The best cinematography was in Prisoner of Azkaban btw...

That did not help, b ut the main problem was the writing. In the end, The FB movies did not give us a lof of  charecters most people cared about. Even when they brought in charecters from the Harry Potter novels, a lot was lost in the transfer.

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5 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

While it obviously doesn't sound good, I wouldn't take this as confirmation that the series is over. Despite all the obstacles, the latest film most likely managed to break even, and if they wanted, they could cut the budget to $140-150m and make a short final film focused solely on the wizarding war (they might even re-brand it and drop the 'Fantastic Beasts' label).

 

However, on that regard I believe a lot depends on Rowling and whether she is up to provide a story for that finale. She is currently very busy writing the Strike books and hasn't mentioned Fantastic Beasts in years (excluding the brief appearance at the premiere). Her original vision has already been compromised, and after all the toxicity, everything points out at her not being interested much in this series anymore.

Edited by nox
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27 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Can WB still move forward without her if that even makes sense?

When answering questions about the future of the series, Yates (and Heyman too iirc) said that FB4 depends on Rowling having the time to write it. It's possible they were simply being courteous to Rowling, or it might indeed be true that FB4 can happen only if Rowling writes it (or approves someone else doing it).

Edited by nox
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1 hour ago, nox said:

When answering questions about the future of the series, Yates (and Heyman too iirc) said that FB4 depends on Rowling having the time to write it. It's possible they were simply being courteous to Rowling, or it might indeed be true that FB4 can happen only if Rowling writes it (or approves someone else doing it).

 

1 hour ago, AJG said:

 

They can't do anything without Rowling's involvement.

 

I really hope they still move forward with the rest. Maybe changing the writer is the way to go. The FB movies have been good, but it seemed like the magic wasn't always there.

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p

On 1/20/2023 at 5:49 PM, kayumanggi said:

Can WB still move forward without her if that even makes sense?

I think she has a veto over anything to do with the wizarding world. On paper they could move ahead without her direct invovlement, but if she does not like what tey are doing she can kill it on the spot.

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On 1/20/2023 at 7:35 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

 

I really hope they still move forward with the rest. Maybe changing the writer is the way to go. The FB movies have been good, but it seemed like the magic wasn't always there.

Thing is they have to get at least Rolwing's OK to do anything. Her contract gives here veto power, apparently.

But I think it is very clear to all the but the die hard fans who ignore reality that the FB saga is over.

Edited by dudalb
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There is a lot of talk about a possible Wizarding World TV show on social media, and there has been multiple reports about WB developing a show for one of its major IPs. Some fans speculate it could be a show focused on Dumbledore, and I think a show about Dumbledore vs Grindelwald makes sense.

 

I tried to calculate whether The Secrets of Dumbledore has already recovered its production and marketing costs, which I provide below. Based on my estimations, the film must be very close to breaking even (or already did). 

 

Cost:

 

The production cost was reported as near $200m (significantly inflated because of COVID and additional hirings). The marketing spend was not revealed but we can estimate it as less than $80-100m, which was the number reported for Black Adam by multiple sources. Relative to Black Adam, this film had a much shorter and modest marketing (no panel at conferences, no full takeover of Times Square, etc).

 

Revenue:

 

This film has done quite well in domestic video sales, relatively speaking. As of November 20 of 2022, it's brought $4.96m from DVD sales (#9 in 2022 spending charts, and more than The Batman, Dune, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 etc), and as of November 27, it's brought $10.87m from Blu-ray sales (#8 in spending charts, ahead of many higher-grossing titles). For total domestic video sales we get $15.84m as of November 2022, but now it should be quite a bit higher thanks to winter holidays and increased interest from Hogwarts legacy. Let's be highly conservative and assume $17m for its current sales number. For FB1 Deadline used 70% for studio revenue from video sales, so here we get $12m revenue from the domestic market only.

 

I didn't find any numbers for international video sales, but it has to be much higher than in the US, considering the series is much more popular there (76.4% of global box office). If we used the same ratio as at the box office, the international video sales would be $70m+. And if the studio share was the same as in the US, we'd get $50m estimated revenue. In reality, the international video sales could be a lot more muted compared to the box office, and the studio share is also probably a lot lower than 70%. Since we don't have exact numbers, I will fall back to a very conservative $20m guesstimate.

 

The Secrets of Dumbledore has also performed well on streaming (#3 most popular film of 2022 on HBO Max according to FlixPatrol). Streaming and TV revenues are hard to estimate, but using the Deadline's TV numbers for FB1 as a basis and decreasing them proportionally to the box office gross, we get $30m for domestic TV and $40m for foreign TV.

 

The films global gross was $406.95m, including $95.85m domestically, $282m OS-China, $29.1m China. From that, the studio got $270-275m revenue (assuming 50-55%, 40%, 25% respective studio shares).

 

Summary:

 

US+Canada gross: $95.85m, revenue: $48-53m (assuming 50-55% share)

OS-China gross: $282m, revenue: $112.8m (assuming 40% share)

China gross: $29.1m, revenue: $7.3m (assuming 25% share)

US video sales: $17m, revenue: $12m+

International video sales: unknown, guesstimated revenue: $20m

Domestic TV estimated revenue: $30m

Foreign TV estimate revenue: $40m

Total revenue: $270-275m

 

Production cost: $200m

Marketing estimated cost: $70m

Total cost: $270m

 

 

***

A lot of the numbers are obviously speculations, but I tried to use reasonably low estimates whenever there were no numbers. And I of course would like your feedback if something's wrong in my calculations.

For box office gross I used boxofficemojo.com, for video sales: the-numbers.com.

Edited by nox
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2 hours ago, nox said:

There is a lot of talk about a possible Wizarding World TV show on social media, and there has been multiple reports about WB developing a show for one of its major IPs. Some fans speculate it could be a show focused on Dumbledore, and I think a show about Dumbledore vs Grindelwald makes sense.

 

I tried to calculate whether The Secrets of Dumbledore has already recovered its production and marketing costs, which I provide below. Based on my estimations, the film must be very close to breaking even (or already did). 

 

Cost:

 

The production cost was reported as near $200m (significantly inflated because of COVID and additional hirings). The marketing spend was not revealed but we can estimate it as less than $80-100m, which was the number reported for Black Adam by multiple sources. Relative to Black Adam, this film had a much shorter and modest marketing (no panel at conferences, no full takeover of Times Square, etc).

 

Revenue:

 

This film has done quite well in domestic video sales, relatively speaking. As of November 20 of 2022, it's brought $4.96m from DVD sales (#9 in 2022 spending charts, and more than The Batman, Dune, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 etc), and as of November 27, it's brought $10.87m from Blu-ray sales (#8 in spending charts, ahead of many higher-grossing titles). For total domestic video sales we get $15.84m as of November 2022, but now it should be quite a bit higher thanks to winter holidays and increased interest from Hogwarts legacy. Let's be highly conservative and assume $17m for its current sales number. For FB1 Deadline used 70% for studio revenue from video sales, so here we get $12m revenue from the domestic market only.

 

I didn't find any numbers for international video sales, but it has to be much higher than in the US, considering the series is much more popular there (76.4% of global box office). If we used the same ratio as at the box office, the international video sales would be $70m+. And if the studio share was the same as in the US, we'd get $50m estimated revenue. In reality, the international video sales could be a lot more muted compared to the box office, and the studio share is also probably a lot lower than 70%. Since we don't have exact numbers, I will fall back to a very conservative $20m guesstimate.

 

The Secrets of Dumbledore has also performed well on streaming (#3 most popular film of 2022 on HBO Max according to FlixPatrol). Streaming and TV revenues are hard to estimate, but using the Deadline's TV numbers for FB1 as a basis and decreasing them proportionally to the box office gross, we get $30m for domestic TV and $40m for foreign TV.

 

The films global gross was $406.95m, including $95.85m domestically, $282m OS-China, $29.1m China. From that, the studio got $270-275m revenue (assuming 50-55%, 40%, 25% respective studio shares).

 

Summary:

 

US+Canada gross: $95.85m, revenue: $48-53m (assuming 50-55% share)

OS-China gross: $282m, revenue: $112.8m (assuming 40% share)

China gross: $29.1m, revenue: $7.3m (assuming 25% share)

US video sales: $17m, revenue: $12m+

International video sales: unknown, guesstimated revenue: $20m

Domestic TV estimated revenue: $30m

Foreign TV estimate revenue: $40m

Total revenue: $270-275m

 

Production cost: $200m

Marketing estimated cost: $70m

Total cost: $270m

 

 

***

A lot of the numbers are obviously speculations, but I tried to use reasonably low estimates whenever there were no numbers. And I of course would like your feedback if something's wrong in my calculations.

For box office gross I used boxofficemojo.com, for video sales: the-numbers.com.

Like just breaking evenis some great triumph. Studios do not spend 200 Milliion to just break even.

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I do think I’ve said on here before that wrapping the Dumbledore/Grindlewald arc in a HBO Max miniseries would have value, but I think I said that before it was clear that Max original programming was being phased out, at least in its current form. I do think it would still prove valuable though.

 

And I maintain that a “Quidditch World Cup” sports drama film is could/would be massive, can exist standalone, and should be put into production ASAP.

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6 hours ago, dudalb said:

Like just breaking evenis some great triumph. Studios do not spend 200 Milliion to just break even.

Well, in this case it means that a continuation on a significantly reduced budget would not be a huge financial risk. For me, as a fan, that's good news. Also, if its original budget stood, this would be profitable already.

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