Wednesday numbers: Dumbo $2.39M | Us $2.33M | Captain Marvel $1.72M

[Ms Lady Hawk]

• Shazam! (4,260 theaters) - $48.0 M
• Pet Sematary (3,585 theaters) - $30.0 M
• Dumbo (4,259 theaters) - $21.6 M
• Us (3,512 theaters) - $16.6 M
• Captain Marvel (3,573 theaters) - $10.1 M
• The Best of Enemies (1,705 theaters) - $5.0 M
• Unplanned (1,516 theaters) - $4.7 M
• Five Feet Apart - $3.4 M
• Wonder Park (2,281 theaters) - $2.4 M
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World(1,922 theaters) - $2.2 M

BOM Predictions. They are high on Pet Cemetery.

[AndyK]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Shazam and Sematary will definitely hit Cap Marv and Us this weekend. Same exact demo. Pretty much 100% overlap in audience.

I dont think it will make a jot of difference, I wouldnt be suprised at a 30% drop.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Barnack]

26 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I dont think it will make a jot of difference, I wouldnt be suprised at a 30% drop.

 

Maybe it would be versus an parallel universe with 0 new release, but those for everyone giant movie pretty much always have heavily shared demo opening against them week 3 when we think about what normal drop look like.

[AndyK]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Maybe it would be versus an parallel universe with 0 new release, but those for everyone giant movie pretty much always have heavily shared demo opening against them week 3 when we think about what normal drop look like.

Wonder Woman dropped 37% against a much bigger opener in Spiderman Homecoming.

[Barnack]

33 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Wonder Woman dropped 37% against a much bigger opener in Spiderman Homecoming.

That one of it's worst drop no ? (And face quite the theater lost with despicable me 3 OW that week before)

 

If no movie had opened that weekend, it would have not lost theater and probably had a better drop (dropped 30.7 and 32.4 and 27.5 the next 3 weekend for example).

 

But like I said we rarely see giant stretch without any new relevant release for that kind of movie, being movie for pretty much everyone between 5 and 85, they always face competition and it's fully integrated in what common good/great/bad legs look like.

[AndyK]

11 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That one of it's worst drop no ? (And face quite the theater lost with despicable me 3 OW that week before)

 

If no movie had opened that weekend, it would have not lost theater and probably had a better drop (dropped 30.7 and 32.4 and 27.5 the next 3 weekend for example).

 

But like I said we rarely see giant stretch without any new relevant release for that kind of movie, being movie for pretty much everyone between 5 and 85, they always face competition and it's fully integrated in what common good/great/bad legs look like.

It made no difference to the drop, it was the same as the previous week when DM3 opened, it waa completely in line with it overal trajectory.

 

CM may drop 50% but I wouldn't be suprised if it was in the 30's, there is plenty of capacity for all 3 movies to not affect each other and plenty of evidence that they probablt won't.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

It made no difference to the drop, it was the same as the previous week when DM3 opened, it waa completely in line with it overal trajectory.

 

CM may drop 50% but I wouldn't be suprised if it was in the 30's, there is plenty of capacity for all 3 movies to not affect each other and plenty of evidence that they probablt won't.

When a giant movie that caused a big theater drop happened  ? You cannot say it made no different to a no new release scenario using as a comparable an other weekend with 100m of new release.

 

It was one of the worst drop of WW.

 

You really think that in a world 0 new movie opened that weekend, that WW lost those theater, lose those screen and lose that same exact percentage (+/- 0.5%) ?

Edited April 4, 2019 by Barnack

[cdsacken]

These are giant films. Shazam is going to open weak and Pet Sematary is a very dark scary as hell movie. Yes could affect CM but it may not. We shall see, I will stick to my 11.9

[DAJK]

I think Dumbo is going to go down as a movie Disney overspent on. It looks gorgeous and all, and EVERY penny is visible on screen, and I definitely think the visuals enhance the movie. But they could have easily cut out 50M from that production budget, and their profits would have been all the better for it. 

[AndyK]

7 hours ago, Barnack said:

When a giant movie that caused a big theater drop happened  ? You cannot say it made no different to a no new release scenario using as a comparable an other weekend with 100m of new release.

 

It was one of the worst drop of WW.

 

You really think that in a world 0 new movie opened that weekend, that WW lost those theater, lose those screen and lose that same exact percentage (+/- 0.5%) ?

The trajectory is set by the chart, which already takes into account screen losses. The only thing that can affect it is EndGame, which may take up all the capacity.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, AndyK said:

The trajectory is set by the chart, which already takes into account screen losses

 

I think we pretty much agree then, exactly it's competition level is really normal already taken into account, not that the hold would not be better if there was not any new movie ever released from last sunday to june.

[cdsacken]

I don't see how end game is going to affect capacity negatively so late in the game. It's going to help it weeks 8 and 9 and after that point 98% of the revenue is baked in anyways.