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[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

So... 40 OS-C, 40 China, 50 domestic as an OW for Shazam? Haven't been able to go through all the details... If so, 300 WW should be the target. Ouch. Not a disaster, given the budget, but still... Would have hoped for Ant Man numbers - though if it develops good domestic legs, the studio's revenue retention compared to other markets might mitigate the OS results... 

From the China Forum- Previews +OD are $15.5m and opening from fan reaction and current pre-sales might indicate closer to a $33m opening

 

 

[Matthew]

Shazam will open to 

 

76M Sans China OS

 

30M China 

 

50M USA 

 

136M Opening Weekend WW

 

[ChipDerby]

6 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Shazam will open to 

 

76M Sans China OS

 

30M China 

 

50M USA 

 

136M Opening Weekend WW

 

 

Might want to check that math.

[Porthos]

*wakes up*

*sees new preview number*

 

BWAHJHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 

 

EARLY DEADLINE PROJECTION STRIKES AGAIN  

 

That's, what 47.5% off?  Just pitiful.

 

====

 

Fun fact.  I did a single partial comp yesterday and Wed.  One measly partial comp off of Venom locally from a single theater and never did any sort of followup on it before the showings started for real:

On 4/3/2019 at 3:06 PM, Porthos said:

I took a looksee at Century Arden for Shazam! and it's kinda interesting.  The 4pm to 5pm shows, including the PLF screen, aren't doing so hot.   Really picks up at 7pm though, before crashing again for the 10pm and later shows:

 

Arden            
8:00 (3D)    94    110    14.55%
11:05 (3D)  109    110    0.91%
4:00 (2D)   247    260    5.00%
7:00 (2D)   152    260    41.54%
10:05 (2D)  227    260    12.69%
4:30 (2D)   136    160    15.00%
5:00 (2D)    98    110    10.91%
7:30 (2D)    89    160    44.38%
10:35 (2D)  141    160    11.88%

	    1293   1590	  18.68% 
	    297 tickets sold

 

Venom and AM&TW were the lowest tracked movies I did region wide.  It's already been discussed why AM2 is a bad comp,  but I can separate out my info for just Century Arden on the Wed night of release for Venom:

 

Arden                                       			
6:30 (3D) 	67	110	39.09%
9:15 (3D) 	67	110	39.09%
5:00 (2D) 	106	161	34.16%
7:45 (2D) 	37	161	77.02%
10:00 (2D)	105	110	4.55%
10:30 (2D)	88	110	20.00%
11:00 (2D)	106	110	3.64%
5:30 (2D) 	168	260	35.38%
8:30 (2D)	116	260	55.38%
11:15 (2D)	255	260	1.92%
			
	       1115	1652	32.51% 
               537 tickets sold

Now this would still be missing about six to seven hours of sales, so even more of an imperfect comp.  But 297/537 = 55.31% = 5.5m Thr, which is more or less what some of the comps were pointing to before Pulse crashed.

 

 

 

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not quite 24 hours later:

Arden			
8:00 (2D)	71	110	35.45%
11:05 (2D)	106	110	3.64%
4:00 (2D)	214	260	17.69%
7:00 (2D)	133	260	48.85%
10:05 (2D)	215	260	17.31%
4:30 (2D)	122	160	23.75%
5:00 (2D)	88	110	20.00%
7:30 (2D)	54	160	66.25%
10:35 (2D)	134	160	16.25%
   	       1137	1590	28.49%
	       453 tickets sold 

I have the approx half day update for Venom as well:

 

Arden 			
6:30 (3D)	47	110	57.27%
9:15 (3D)	53	110	51.82%
5:00 (2D)	55	161	65.84%
7:45 (2D)	19	161	88.20%
10:00 (2D)	52	110	52.73%
10:30 (2D)	78	110	29.09%
10:45 (2D)	31	51	39.22%
11:00 (2D)	86	110	21.82%
5:30 (2D)	114	260	56.15%
8:30 (2D)	80	260	69.23%
11:15 (2D)	212	260	18.46%
	        827	1703	51.44%
                876 tickets sold

Venom gained a showing during that timespan while Shazam! didn't.  It's also dropped a bit on percentage as it was at 55.31% (297/537) at around this time yesterday while now it is at 51.71 % (453/876).  That points to around 5.2m Thr previews.  Which is at the high end of some of the comps we saw earlier in the week.

 

Don't know if the slight drop (55.31 to 51.71) is a sign of anything other than random variation though.

 

 

 

Now 5.5m and 5.2m ain't 5.9m.  But it is a HELL of a lot closer than 4m to 4.4m.  And as I said, it was a partial comp and not taken at normal tracking checks, which is why it could be off.

 

Just hilarious.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

Gotta say, @Porthos' work in general in the box office tracking thread is pretty great, especially when it's really close to release

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Shazam is  apparently bad bombing oversea so it will need all the help it can t domestically 

 

There seem to be of contradicting report, isn't talk of an over 100m oversea OW ?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Gotta say, @Porthos' work in general in the box office tracking thread is pretty great, especially when it's really close to release

I don't claim to be that that good, but thanks.   In fact, I know my limitations (see in reference, FB2 and DP2).

 

I just found it utterly hilarious that Deadline was off so much and wanted to bring a couple of receipts. 

 

I'd understand it if their 4m-4.4m was based off an early/mid Thr report.  Surges can happen, especially with that nutty 4pm start.  But it dropped at, what, 10pm my time?  Maybe 9:30? 

 

Just funny is all.

 

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Shazam is  apparently bad bombing oversea so it will need all the help it can t domestically 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, shouldnt have shouldnt be said:

If only Solo's budget wasn't approx $200m higher

[shuotong]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait, how badly is Shazam doing? I figured it wouldn't do that big (it's not every blockbustery compared to say, Aquaman or even Deadpool) but to hear it's bombing is disappointing.

It bombed in China for sure. 8.0 rating on Maoyan indicates terrible legs.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I don't claim to be that that good, but thanks.   In fact, I know my limitations (see in reference, FB2 and DP2).

 

I just found it utterly hilarious that Deadline was off so much and wanted to bring a couple of receipts. 

 

I'd understand it if their 4m-4.4m was based off an early/mid Thr report.  Surges can happen, especially with that nutty 4pm start.  But it dropped at, what, 10pm my time?  Maybe 9:30? 

 

Just funny is all.

 

Late numbers really kicked it up a notch.  Mid day I had it doing around $4.5-5m but by the end of the night the comps with Venom and AQM I had it between $5.4m and $6m.  I was pretty surprised when I saw Deadline's $4.1-4.4m.

[Mulder]

Shazam was walk-up heavy as people predicted, not to mention the fact that demand got burnt off by Fandango's previews.

[AdamKendall]

5.9 is a very solid # for the movie.  Probably would have done closer to 8 without the preview showing on 23rd.   Neighborhood of 50 million+ is good.

 

It's not a 'bomb', it's not a huge success, it's simply solid ... and given it's budget, that's all it really had to be for WB/New Line.

Edited April 5, 2019 by AdamKendall

[DlAMONDZ]

WB better not pull this preview crap for WW84. She deserves a huge opening

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Shazam was walk-up heavy as people predicted, not to mention the fact that demand got burnt off by Fandango's previews.

Not that much compared to AQM.

 

Losing Tues and most of Wed numbers on Fandango Pulse just made it harder to get a good ratio until all the Thur numbers were in.  Monday's Fandango #s number already had it doing 60% of AQM but just 37%  of Venom.  By Thur it was 54% of Venom and about 68% of AQM.  Preview numbers landed in that range.

[LordNox]

I think WB only pulls these previews for movies they think lacks hype. For the likes of Wonder Woman and Batman previews should not be needed at all due to the hype levels being much bigger.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

WB better not pull this preview crap for WW84. She deserves a huge opening

She doesn't need 2 week early previews to boost interest.

 

In the case of AQM and Shazam! my guess is early previews did indeed help build buzz/interest.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Late numbers really kicked it up a notch.  Mid day I had it doing around $4.5-5m but by the end of the night the comps with Venom and AQM I had it between $5.4m and $6m.  I was pretty surprised when I saw Deadline's $4.1-4.4m.

Godzilla, his POWAH!!!! 

Edited April 5, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

I'm still baffled how WB made an Aquaman film make more domestically than most Spider-Man films, and more worldwide than all superhero films sans 5 (soon 6). I think the inflated numbers from that is a big reason this was bound to look like an under-performer.

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

She doesn't need 2 week early previews to boost interest.

 

In the case of AQM and Shazam! my guess is early previews did indeed help build buzz/interest.

I disagree.  I think they do it for security reasons to deflate OD crowds