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Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4

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things are looking pretty good for Shazam! domestically. 

 

53M OW is very nice, with a great cinemascore and very positive reactions online, legs could be as high as 3x (AQP did 3.75x multi last year in the same weekend as Shazam but it was a different genre and Shazam will be hit harder by EG) so 53 x 3 = 159 +3.3 in early previews and domestic total would be $162M.3.

 

in China it's not doing too hot unfortunately as OW looks to be 32M and the reception isn't that good over there (that Maoyan score is awful) so life time gross in China probably around $51M~

 

for OS-China I'll use Ant-Man as comp as Shazam's doing on par or almost on par with Ant-Man in plenty of the international markets, Ant-Man made 234M in OS-China but Shazam will have more competition cus of EG (it's also weaker in certain markets) though it should still be able to do at least -20% of Ant-Man's OS-China gross.  -20% of 234M is $187.2M for OS-China

 

so with that Shazam will be looking at a global total of 162.3 + 51 + 187.2 = 400.5M~ (this figure could probably go higher but I'll use 400M for now and it would still be a fine result for Shazam! and here's why below)

 

with 400M WW the studio cuts for Shazam would be :

50% of domestic: 162.3 * 0.5 = 81M

40% of OS-China : 187.2 * 0.4 = 74.8M

25% of China : 51 * 0.25 = 12.75M

total studio profit from theatrical cuts would be $168.5M~ 

 

and according to the trades Shazam's production budget is 80M-100M so studio will keep 168.5-100 = $68.5M~ 

 

so $68.5M  + whatever Shazam makes in ancillary markets (home video/streaming/tv/blu-ray/dvd etc) is enough to cover P&A and marketing costs and still some.

 

Sooo Shazam will turn in a very decent profit for WB (probably not as much as AQM or WW but I don't think WB was expecting those sort of numbers from a mid-tier budget movie 🙂)  I'm also very confident the Shazam sequel will do much better :bravo:

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't see it doing 80% of antman OS-China. It opened poorly overseas and will get absolutely murdered when end game comes overseas. I see 200 overseas or right at that including China. 

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Disney needed this Dumbo flop honestly. If this year is any indication, things have gotten way out of control with their remakes. 

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WB does deserve props for keeping the budget so modest on Shazam. Disney certainly would never be able to do that lol. 

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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Disney needed this Dumbo flop honestly. If this year is any indication, things have gotten way out of control with their remakes. 

Lion King box office will make them forget about Dumbo. Hell they will still likely make more remakes of really old  films still  and just put them

on Disney +

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8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

WB does deserve props for keeping the budget so modest on Shazam. Disney certainly would never be able to do that lol. 

I think the profits deadline champion list should put Disney budget in perspective, I am not sure how exact every movie budget are exactly but if they are in the gross zone it would make a lot of sense for Disney to "buy in advance the movie profit" instead of keeping the cost and risk down in exchange of a profit participation. A bit of what they do in term of partnership/investor, they do not take much if any of them to keep all the profits, I suspect they do a bit of the same with the people / production studio that work on those movies, more upfront money, bigger payday for the studio when it work. Blum often make movie that cost over 100m but with the risk of a low budget one.

 

Something you can afford when the batting average get that high. 

Edited by Barnack
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16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Disney needed this Dumbo flop honestly. If this year is any indication, things have gotten way out of control with their remakes. 

A Dumbo film doing $110m Dom/$300m WW would have been fine if it didn't cost so much to make

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9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I don't see it doing 80% of antman OS-China. It opened poorly overseas and will get absolutely murdered when end game comes overseas. I see 200 overseas or right at that including China. 

sounds a bit pessimistic on your side :sweat:, but I could see it happening and miss 400M WW.

 

I took a quick look at the international thread and Shazam is doing:

on Par with Ant-Man in the UK

21% ahead of Ant-Man in Mexico

double Ant-Man in India

27% ahead of Ant-Man in Spain

on par with Ant-Man in Russia

on par with Ant-Man in Brazil

ahead of Ant-Man in the UAE (but that's a very small market so it's w/e)

60% ahead of Ant-Man in Taiwan

 

I think SK opening is probably behind Ant-Man but someone could correct me :thinking:

 

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Lion King flopping would give Disney second thoughts on remakes.  And that ain’t happening 

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Late summer is always notoriously barren (a trend that looks to continue this year taking a peak at what's currently scheduled).

tenor.gif?itemid=13447902

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problem with those Disney remakes is that they cost too much to produce. 

 

if Dumbo and Mary Poppins Returns didn't cost 170M and 130M (respectively) to make, they would've been very profitable.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, cookie said:

tenor.gif?itemid=13447902

Early August so doesn't count.

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53 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I don't see it doing 80% of antman OS-China. It opened poorly overseas and will get absolutely murdered when end game comes overseas. I see 200 overseas or right at that including China. 

 Didn't it open over Antman in a lot of the OS countries?

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13 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

sounds a bit pessimistic on your side :sweat:, but I could see it happening and miss 400M WW.

 

I took a quick look at the international thread and Shazam is doing:

on Par with Ant-Man in the UK

21% ahead of Ant-Man in Mexico

double Ant-Man in India

27% ahead of Ant-Man in Spain

on par with Ant-Man in Russia

on par with Ant-Man in Brazil

ahead of Ant-Man in the UAE (but that's a very small market so it's w/e)

60% ahead of Ant-Man in Taiwan

 

I think SK opening is probably behind Ant-Man but someone could correct me :thinking:

 

You have to check if they're doing comps in local currencies which can vary greatly over the years and yield far different exchange rates

 

China - AM did $105m.  Shazam is projected to do about $50m off a 32-33m o/w

 

AM opened to $3.9m in Brazil.  Finished with  $12.4m   Shazam  after two days including preview is at $848k

 

South Korea-  AM did $21m.    Shazam! as of Saturday is at 2,903,404 - should finish Sunday around $3.9m - might finish around $10m if that.

 

Mexico: AM opened with $5.3m / $14.67m finish    In $s Shazam! should open about the same (local currency is down about 25% since AM)

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8 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

 Didn't it open over Antman in a lot of the OS countries?

No. It opened over antman in the small select few countries mentioned. The vast majority of countries (that were not mentioned) are behind Antman. And unfortunately for shazam it’s the big guns where Ant Man is easily surpassing it. 

Edited by HouseOfTheSun

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5 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

 Didn't it open over Antman in a lot of the OS countries?

it is...but if he said it's flop...it must be flop ( even tho only in his mind).......lol:sparta:

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39 minutes ago, TMP said:

A Dumbo film doing $110m Dom/$300m WW would have been fine if it didn't cost so much to make

Bob Iger:  DOES NOT COMPUTE 

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12 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

 Didn't it open over Antman in a lot of the OS countries?

Some and bad reception in many as well. China opening for ant man was similar with great legs. Not to mention legs after just a couple weeks in theaters will be destroyed. Hope I'm wrong.

 

200 OS

185 Dom

385. Still a profit before video though. Will get sequel of course. Seeing on Thursday to see just how pissed I am about the box office performance.

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23 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

problem with those Disney remakes is that they cost too much to produce. 

 

if Dumbo and Mary Poppins Returns didn't cost 170M and 130M (respectively) to make, they would've been very profitable.

 

 

 

 

In all fairness, Poppins will probably be slightly profitable.  Dumbo, slightly unprofitable.  Not that anyone is going to be excited about either performance.

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5 minutes ago, boyamama said:

it is...but if he said it's flop...it must be flop ( even tho only in his mind).......lol:sparta:

 

Perhaps will it do great Overseas in other than China and several other countries. We shall see. Hope it does

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