Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, boyamama said:

lmfao he say 2,5X  not 225M ...2,5X= 125M DOM...lol

He meant 2.5x its budget which is $80M-$100M

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

you think Shazam will do 225M domestically? the opening looks like to be around 53M~ excluding early previews so that number would be a 4.2x multi. even A Quiet Place could only maintain a 3.75x multi against IW last year and it was targeting a diff demo.

 

I think Shazam legs could've been closer to AQP's if it didn't have EG 3 weeks later but going even beyond that to 4.2x sounds too high to me.

 so I'm sticking with 3x-3.2x multi for now

 

 

80M (production budget) *2.5 is $200M...and yes, I totally think Shazam will do $200M DOM...I think folks might be sick of me saying that, but this movie will clean up the week before and after Easter before Endgame opens...and it will hold enough theaters post-Endgame til Pokemon to put up a great (for it) number...

 

PS - When it comes to Endgame's open, only the strong will survive...Shazam will be outperforming everything that opened before this weekend, so only Captain Marvel might be held for double-showing purposes (aka 1-2 shows/day)...and looking at next weekend's offerings, Shazam may also be held over them (b/c nothing is predicted to break out)...Apr 17-19 openers will probably only be selectively picked up at small and midsize theaters, so Shazam looks like it could be the "held" movies for families and for "something different" with Endgame...not much will be...

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I'll be honest I think Disney would have hesitated in a Cap sequel had Avengers not been as successful as it was. 

That and it's huge home video which was 50% higher than Thor domestic and about 15% less than IM2.

 

We probably wouldn't have got a sequel to Batman Begins without it's explosion on home video.   It earned less WW than Superman Returns

[cax16]

I saw Shazam today again at 12:45pm, theatre was about 1/3 full, probably 80-100 people. Lots of kids and families, everyone enjoyed it and laughed a lot. 

[harrisonisdead]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

oh my bad, I thought he meant 2.5x its budget domestically cus he said it will make more than 2x its budget JUST domestically

 

 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure you were right the first time... 2.5x the OW would not nearly be 2x the budget, so I don't really see any other interpretation than they meant 2.5x the budget.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

80M (production budget) *2.5 is $200M...and yes, I totally think Shazam will do $200M DOM...I think folks might be sick of me saying that, but this movie will clean up the week before and after Easter before Endgame opens...and it will hold enough theaters post-Endgame til Pokemon to put up a great (for it) number...

 

Endgame is going to suck up screens like a hoover.  A movie 4 weeks out that opened to $53m isn't going to be hanging on to much.

[Daenys]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

That and it's huge home video which was 50% higher than Thor domestic and about 15% less than IM2.

 

We probably wouldn't have got a sequel to Batman Begins without it's explosion on home video.   It earned less WW than Superman Returns

 

Superman Returns also had massive 270m budget. Batman Begins' budget was 150m.

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

80M (production budget) *2.5 is $200M...and yes, I totally think Shazam will do $200M DOM...I think folks might be sick of me saying that, but this movie will clean up the week before and after Easter before Endgame opens...and it will hold enough theaters post-Endgame til Pokemon to put up a great (for it) number...

 

is 80M the final budget? I keep hearing 80-100 from different sources so i took 90M as average.

 

3.71x legs for Shazam would be great and if it does indeed hit 200M dom, that would lock $400M+ WW

 

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Daenys said:

 

Superman Returns also had massive 270m budget. Batman Begins' budget was 150m.

To be fair so much of that budget was add on from several failed previous iterations.  A $20m pay day for Nic Cage was part of that budget

[shuotong]

4 hours ago, SliverS said:

Dumbo is a bomb that no one cares.shazam is different.Nowadays,fanboy war is toxic.Zachary is So kind to those fanboys.But they don't  treat him well.Anyway,shazam will  be profitable.Those fanboy wars are meaningless.

Brie treats fanboys well and got attacked worse. The fanboy environment is too toxic nowadays.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, RealLyre said:

is 80M the final budget? I keep hearing 80-100 from different sources so i took 90M as average.

 

3.71x legs for Shazam would be great and if it does indeed hit 200M dom, that would lock $400M+ WW

 

No one knows.  Forbes just said $90m in it's article yesterday and I think THR quoted $80 and another source $100m

 

Might be confusion over Canadian v US $ or before and after re-shoots.  WB hasn't commented about it and no financials from tax rebates by Canada have been released.

 

 

[shuotong]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

is 80M the final budget? I keep hearing 80-100 from different sources so i took 90M as average.

 

3.71x legs for Shazam would be great and if it does indeed hit 200M dom, that would lock $400M+ WW

 

Both deadline and BOM give 100M as the production budget.

[Mulder]

If Shazam's making a lot of money by Endgame's weekend it'll still be kept in a few theaters, Endgame isn't going to be the only movie shown guys.

[RealLyre]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Endgame is going to suck up screens like a hoover.  A movie 4 weeks out that opened to $53m isn't going to be hanging on to much.

Even A Quiet Place was hit hard by IW and dropped -47.4% on IW's weekend and AQP was targeting a totally different demo lol, I can't imagine how much Shazam will drop on EG's weekend plus EG has way more hype than IW and will open higher etc.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[cax16]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

No one knows.  Forbes just said $90m in it's article yesterday and I think THR quoted $80 and another source $100m

 

Might be confusion over Canadian v US $ or before and after re-shoots.  WB hasn't commented about it and no financials from tax rebates by Canada have been released.

 

 

We have all your 💰 

 

[Barnack]

35 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Rampage with it's budget, back end for Rock and US./China split might not make a profit even after ancillaries.

Johnson is rumored to be a profit participation type of deals (like most newer stars I think), no first dollar gross:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-rock-dwayne-johnson-salary-for-a-single-movie-2018-3

 

If it was the same for Rampage, is back end does not make the break even point move, but they are movies with 50% of the profit not going toward the studio pockets in exchange.

Edited April 6, 2019 by Barnack

[Legion Again]

Endgame will hit holdovers harder than TA, AoU, or IW, both because it’s a known demand monster from presales and the juiced up runtime. Other movies obviously won’t fall to 0, but... it won’t be pretty.

[TwoMisfits]

Here's the thing with Endgame's weekend - it's gonna have 80% of screens/showings at each theater for the weekend (my "out of my butt" estimate that probably isn't far off for small and midsize theaters looking at current presale sets)...and then it's not gonna need more than 30-40% of them the following weekend.  Now, there are 3 openers the next weekend, but none will be more than single screened, so they will keep the best of the holdovers, and those will benefit from being around for awhile, b/c there will be so much space from Endgame no longer needing screens.,..if you can stay through Endgame, you get a free 2-3 extra weeks in most theaters...

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Brainbug]

1	Dec. 18–20, 2015	51	$305,556,314	26,686	$11,450	5	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$247,966,675	81.2%
2	Apr. 27–29, 2018	17	$305,421,502	28,289	$10,796	1	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183	84.4%

 

 

These are the two biggest weekends of all time overall.

 

Scary thought that this record is basically guaranteed to be toast.

[xiazhi]

9 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

is 80M the final budget? I keep hearing 80-100 from different sources so i took 90M as average.

 

3.71x legs for Shazam would be great and if it does indeed hit 200M dom, that would lock $400M+ WW

 

Guess the earlier 80-90M speculation is without extra photography back in December. The latest news says 100M