Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4

[titanic2187]

I believe easter weekend could have inflated thursday preview a bit

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

US was tracking at $50m and ended doing $73m, Horror movies are almost always underestimated by tracking services.

 

- It had a good marketing campaign.

- Decent reviews.

- It's a King adaptation coming just after the biggest Horror movie ever made (IT).

- It has nostalgia behind the property to bring adults.

- It started the week with strong presales which pointed out to a breakout.

 

Even BOM, a site that always underestimate Horror movie had it at $30m+ for the weekend.

 

It is a disappointing number.

Pet Sematary is a nostalgic property? That's news to me.

 

In all seriousness, it's gonna do fine. IT was an exception, not the rule.

[baumer]

Is that preview number for Shazam including last week's early preview number?

[Hades]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

That's my point. People are way pumped up for Endgame to care enough for Shazam! right now. Releasing it by the end of the year would definitely fix that. I'd give Shazam! the Joker release date and make Joker an August release.

[TMP]

Just now, baumer said:

Is that preview number for Shazam including last week's early preview number?

No, it's $9.225 including the previews. Boxoffice.com seems to be counting the whole thing as Thursday night though, so maybe WB is going to do that too?

[ban1o]

that's a pretty good preview number 

[Brainbug]

Just now, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

US was tracking at $50m and ended doing $73m, Horror movies are almost always underestimated by tracking services.

 

- It had a good marketing campaign.

- Decent reviews.

- It's a King adaptation coming just after the biggest Horror movie ever made (IT).

- It has nostalgia behind the property to bring adults.

- It started the week with strong presales which pointed out to a breakout.

 

Even BOM, a site that always underestimate Horror movie had it at $30m+ for the weekend.

 

It is a disappointing number.

 

You know that before IT came along, Stephen King adaptations didnt automatically mean instant success? There are countless flops based on his books as there are many successes.

Also, nostalgia? Pet Sematary is notoriously one of the darkest King storys and the 1989 film isnt exactly a classic or really that beloved which would be necessary for any nostalgia to make a big impact for the new film. Also, strong presales should be expected for a Stephen King adaptation, since that man has many loyal fans who will see practically anything based on his works.

Also, take the 2013 remake of Evil Dead: 1,9M in previews for a 25M weekend. Yes, thats 6 years ago, but its not a totally different situation.

 

Long story short, why not just wait another day for the Friday number? It could go up more than expected, the box office can be very unpredictable sometimes. I just dont get this sense of failure for a film that has a very good chance to make a profit?

[cdsacken]

LMAO deadline sucks so much. Back to back massive fails prediction wise. Yay for Shazam! Much better

Edited April 5, 2019 by cdsacken

[JohnnyGossamer]

That's a great number for Shazam. I think something approaching $60M is in play. Probably Ant-Man numbers.

[TMP]

Sneaks burning off demand for previews is the main reason I think 10x+ should be in play for opening weekend. If it does hit $60m, I could see it doing $180m dom, or even make a play for $200m depending on how bad Avengers hits it.

Shame about international figures, but I hope some of the other countries save it.

[HouseOfTheSun]

How are people putting 60m in play? This is still going to play like a SH movie here. 10x off of 4pm preview figures? I don’t think so. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

You know that before IT came along, Stephen King adaptations didnt automatically mean instant success? There are countless flops based on his books as there are many successes.

Also, nostalgia? Pet Sematary is notoriously one of the darkest King storys and the 1989 film isnt exactly a classic or really that beloved which would be necessary for any nostalgia to make a big impact for the new film. Also, strong presales should be expected for a Stephen King adaptation, since that man has many loyal fans who will see practically anything based on his works.

Also, take the 2013 remake of Evil Dead: 1,9M in previews for a 25M weekend. Yes, thats 6 years ago, but its not a totally different situation.

 

Long story short, why not just wait another day for the Friday number? It could go up more than expected, the box office can be very unpredictable sometimes. I just dont get this sense of failure for a film that has a very good chance to make a profit?

1. As you said, King's adaptions were 50/50 when it comes to success, PS had a shot at breaking out but it's looking more like it will underperform.

 

2. That's not a good excuse. IT had strong presales before the release, and it still managed to beat every single expectation because it cross over with GA. PS failed to do this and it's playing to King/Horror fanbase only, that's why I'm disappointed, I thought it could cross over just like most of (well received) Horror movies are doing lately.

 

3. Lol, the ED comparison makes no sense.

 

4. I'm rooting for numbers to go up, but I have zero expectations when it comes to this movie performance, it's also starting Rotten at Flixter.

 

5. I never called it a failure, I said it's a disappointment.

[filmlover]

Shaazam should also have no difficulty holding #1 next week too. Little will debut the highest of the openers in the low-$20M area.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Still thinking Pet Sematary will approach $30M too.

[Brainbug]

Im really interested in how Dumbo will perform this weekend. WOM seems so-so but as a family-centric film it should still see kind of a good hold. Otoh, mixed WOM is as bad as bad WOM, so maybe well see a rather big decline.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Now that PS disappointed me, I'm gonna put my faith in the next $100m grosser Horror movie in Ma, Octavia Spencer better not disappoint me.

[PenguinHyphy]

Previews and opening day to preview gross ratio and opening weekend to preview gross ratio  

 

Aquaman - $9,000,000/3.081/7.542

Batman V Superman  - $27,700,000/2.944/5.993

Justice League - $13,000,000/2.959/7.219

Man of Steel - $9,000,000/4.890/12.958 

Suicide Squad - $20,500,000/3.166/6.521 

Wonder Woman - $11,000,000/3.477/9.386 

 

Ant-Man - $6,400,000/3.539/8.941

Ant-Man and The Wasp - $11,500,000/2.933/6.592 

Spider-Man: Homecoming - $15,400,000/3.297/7.599

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - $3,500,000/3.619/10.104 

 

Assuming that Shazam follows Aquaman, it will have a $18,177,900 opening day and a $44,497,800 opening weekend, which puts it right about on tracking. Aquaman's prescreening percentage to its Thursday previews (34%) is lower than Shazam's (36%), though. That suggests that Shazam might be a bit more front loaded by fanboys. 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

1. As you said, King's adaptions were 50/50 when it comes to success, PS had a shot at breaking out but it's looking more like it will underperform.

 

2. That's not a good excuse. IT had strong presales before the release, and it still managed to beat every single expectation because it cross over with GA. PS failed to do this and it's playing to King/Horror fanbase only, that's why I'm disappointed, I thought it could cross over just like most of (well received) Horror movies are doing lately.

 

3. Lol, the ED comparison makes no sense.

 

4. I'm rooting for numbers to go up, but I have zero expectations when it comes to this movie performance, it's also starting Rotten at Flixter.

 

5. I never called it a failure, I said it's a disappointment.

 

You finally loose me when you really for 1 second think that a film about dead animals and dead children could have the same appeal as IT, which was a horror film at its core, but wrapped around in the clothes of a coming-of-age film. IT was a soft-R-rated film that was scary enough to count as a horror film but also harmless enough to not actually scare away any of the potential audience.

Pet Semetary is a grim, dark story with essentially no room for humour or other kinds of more lighthearted fun, in which IT excelled, since that film was often more funny than scary (in a good way).

 

Flixter means jack shit btw as has been proven many times and i have 0 patience to argue again about online audience scores. They're meaningless.

 

Again, a 20M debut in the horror genre is not disappointing when the budget is only 20M, only if you want to be disappointed. One of the best horror films of the 2010s - Dont Breathe- opened in the mid 20s after all and was a big success.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Brainbug

[cdsacken]

60 might be out of reach. Aquaman did 9 million I think and did what 70?

 

Still 50 would be solid

Edited April 5, 2019 by cdsacken

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, that's a huge increase from DHD's botched estimates  But good number, all around! Might hit 50, based on the fact that it had 4PM previews. Which I think puts it on road for a 160-170 DOM and 400-450 WW finish, and on a budget of 80M, that's terrific.

Edited April 5, 2019 by MCKillswitch123