Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

You finally loose me when you really for 1 second think that a film about dead animals and dead children could have the same appeal as IT, which was a horror film at its core, but wrapped around in the clothes of a coming-of-age film. IT was a soft-R-rated film that was scary enough to count as a horror film but also harmless enough to not actually scare away any of the potential audience.

Pet Semetary is a grim, dark story with essentially no room for humour or other kinds of more lighthearted fun, in which IT excelled, since that film was often more funny than scary (in a good way).

 

Flixter means jack shit btw as has been proven many times and i have 0 patience to argue again about online audience scores. They're meaningless.

 

Again, a 20M debut in the horror genre is not disappointing when the budget is only 20M, only if you want to be disappointed. One of the best horror films of the 2010s - Dont Breathe- opened in the mid 20s after all and was a big success.

IT also had dead kids btw. And no, I'm not claiming that it should've done IT numbers to be a success, all that I said is that it failed to go outside of the fandom, something most of Horror movies are doing these days.

 

Don't Breathe was an original movie and got great reviews plus great WOM, not the same situation at all.

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

PS should've been PG13

No way. 

37 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ok now im getting annoyed. Tracking had PS at mid-to high 20s and thats where it will land. It has a 20M budget and probably only needs like 70M WW to break even. It will be a nice little success for Paramount. Making it PG-13 would have been a terrible idea considering the source material. Get out with this pessimism.

Yeh industry tracking was $20m. It’s not a disappointment

 

30 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

-It started the week with strong presales which pointed out to a breakout.

Nothing pointed to a breakout, I said that on Tuesday. 

16 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

1. As you said, King's adaptions were 50/50 when it comes to success, PS had a shot at breaking out but it's looking more like it will underperform.

 

4. I'm rooting for numbers to go up, but I have zero expectations when it comes to this movie performance, it's also starting Rotten at Flixter.

 

5. I never called it a failure, I said it's a disappointment.

It’s not a disappointment, looks like it’s going to either be right in line with tracking, or beat it and cover its budget in 3 days. 

13 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Now that PS disappointed me, I'm gonna put my faith in the next $100m grosser Horror movie in Ma, Octavia Spencer better not disappoint me.

Hahahahaaha. You just enjoy setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

It’s almost as if your sole purpose here is to troll the upcoming horror films to try and make them seem like flops. Be gone. 

[Blankments]

8 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Makes me wonder if the reviews are a bit off the mark. At least in comparison to the prototypical cbm. I still can't wait to see it but I've lowered my expectations for the film.

Did you do this after spiderverse OW

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

IT also had dead kids btw. And no, I'm not claiming that it should've done IT numbers to be a success, all that I said is that it failed to go outside of the fandom, something most of Horror movies are doing these days.

  

Don't Breathe was an original movie and got great reviews plus great WOM, not the same situation at all.

Did it? You're only seeing preview numbers. It had higher previews than a lot of original horror films, which means it had both original horror + fandom audiences attached. And if it's not doing better, put the blame on Paramount for not marketing it better; but then again, it's not like it can't do better, cause horror has a lot of walk-up business attached to it. And this isn't opening or even has an ounce of It's buzz, therefore it might be seen as just a new horror movie for a lot of casuals.

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Now that PS disappointed me, I'm gonna put my faith in the next $100m grosser Horror movie in Ma, Octavia Spencer better not disappoint me.

Of course she won't.

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Ill say 53m our of hope for a slight overperformace over the weekend but even then I am not confident in predicting this with such early Thursday showings 

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

IT also had dead kids btw. And no, I'm not claiming that it should've done IT numbers to be a success, all that I said is that it failed to go outside of the fandom, something most of Horror movies are doing these days.

Most? Out of the 4 horror movies we’ve had this year, only US has.

 

And last year only 3 did, Halloween, Quiet Place and The Nun. The other *16* horror films didn’t breakout “beyond the fandom”. That certainly isn’t most. 

 

And just to let you in on a little secret.... horror films don’t have to make $100m to be a hit or a breakout. 

[TalismanRing]

17 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Previews and opening day to preview gross ratio and opening weekend to preview gross ratio  

 

Aquaman - $9,000,000/3.081/7.542

Batman V Superman  - $27,700,000/2.944/5.993

Justice League - $13,000,000/2.959/7.219

Man of Steel - $9,000,000/4.890/12.958 

Suicide Squad - $20,500,000/3.166/6.521 

Wonder Woman - $11,000,000/3.477/9.386 

 

Ant-Man - $6,400,000/3.539/8.941

Ant-Man and The Wasp - $11,500,000/2.933/6.592 

Spider-Man: Homecoming - $15,400,000/3.297/7.599

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - $3,500,000/3.619/10.104 

 

Assuming that Shazam follows Aquaman, it will have a $18,177,900 opening day and a $44,497,800 opening weekend, which puts it right about on tracking. Aquaman's prescreening percentage to its Thursday previews (34%) is lower than Shazam's (36%), though. That suggests that Shazam might be a bit more front loaded by fanboys. 

 

 

Remember this had 4pm previews.  The only movie close to that is Venom which started at 5pm and had an 8x multi

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Did you do this after spiderverse OW

Felt like obvious kids movie and yeah prior to seeing it I felt like the ratings were way too high. After it I felt better about them, still way too high. Great movie but definitely a kids movie.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Ill say 53m our of hope for a slight overperformace over the weekend but even then I am not confident in predicting this with such early Thursday showings 

Did those 4:00 shows yesterday even matter much though. I checked yesterday right as it was about to start the 4:00 PLF show here didn't even sell 15 seats.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

No way. 

Yeh industry tracking was $20m. It’s not a disappointment

 

Nothing pointed to a breakout, I said that on Tuesday. 

It’s not a disappointment, looks like it’s going to either be right in line with tracking, or beat it and cover its budget in 3 days. 

Hahahahaaha. You just enjoy setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

It’s almost as if your sole purpose here is to troll the upcoming horror films to try and make them seem like flops. Be gone. 

 

It’s a disappointment because it had potential do to more. Is that hard to understand? 

[filmlover]

Just now, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

It’s a disappointment because it had potential do to more. Is that hard to understand? 

Sounds like your expectations are to blame, not the movie.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Did it? You're only seeing preview numbers. It had higher previews than a lot of original horror films, which means it had both original horror + fandom audiences attached. And if it's not doing better, put the blame on Paramount for not marketing it better; but then again, it's not like it can't do better, cause horror has a lot of walk-up business attached to it. And this isn't opening or even has an ounce of It's buzz, therefore it might be seen as just a new horror movie for a lot of casuals.

 

If it is being seen as an ‘original’ Horror movie, then it’s going to have a great IM closer to AQP than to US -which I doubt-.

 

Opinions about marketing’s stuff is subjective, Paramount spent a lot promoting it, and I feel they did a great job.

[charlie Jatinder]

imo 21 18.5 14

 

since China is going to be around 30mn, international weekend may be around 110-120mn range only. 

 

Over/under 175mn ww we. 🙄😛

Edited April 5, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Most? Out of the 4 horror movies we’ve had this year, only US has.

 

And last year only 3 did, Halloween, Quiet Place and The Nun. The other *16* horror films didn’t breakout “beyond the fandom”. That certainly isn’t most. 

 

And just to let you in on a little secret.... horror films don’t have to make $100m to be a hit or a breakout. 

 

Oops, I forgot to add to my post that I'm talking about well reviewed Horror movies, you can't expect a movie like Prodigy to break out, it's restrict to the genre.

 

I consider breakout for a Horror movie a total over $80m, and I say that it cross over with GA when it crosses $100m, PS isn't looking like it will reach neither of them.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sounds like your expectations are to blame, not the movie.

Not really, presales pointed that it would at very least open above $30m, even the always conservative BOM said this.

 

If it opens below $25m, it's a disappointment, imo. 

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Not really, presales pointed that it would at very least open above $30m, even the always conservative BOM said this.

 

If it opens below $25m, it's a disappointment, imo. 

 

Weekend Forecast (July 20-22)

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $214.7 million (new record)

 

[PenguinHyphy]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Remember this had 4pm previews.  The only movie close to that is Venom which started at 5pm and had an 8x multi

Venom opened a holiday weekend, though, so its gross for Sunday has some cushioning. What are some other movies with a 4pm previews Thursday? Do you believe that its multiple is going to be 8.0? 

Edited April 5, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[Eric Duncan]

If Shazam follows Venom (had 5PM previews, which isn't far from 4PM all things considered)

5.9

19.2 Fri inc. previews

15.5 Sat

12.6 Sun

47.3 Weekend

 

Follows Aquaman (also 5PM previews)

5.9

18.2 Fri inc. previews

14 Sat

12.3 Sun

44.5 Weekend

 

Follows Spider-Verse (5PM previews, early access screenings)

5.9

21.3 Fri inc. previews

21.9 Sat

16.3 Sun

59.5 Weekend

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Weekend Forecast (July 20-22)

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $214.7 million (new record)

 

 

I’m talking about Horror movies only.