Tuesday Numbers: Shazam $4.91M | Pet Sematary $2.43M | Dumbo $1.74M | US $1.42M | CM $1.38M

[langer]

7 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

Has any movie ever jumped from 3 to 7 million from Monday to Tuesday?

I'm sure if you look at years when Christmas lands on a Tuesday,  you will find plenty of examples...

 

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

This is why I don't do 3D if I can avoid it.

here often new big budgets get in all cinemas near to me only 3D releases

 

For Endgame to get to see in the OV in a nice to really good quality (I prefer the OV by far over the dubbed version) I have to drive for (both directions) and parking space... 3.5h+/ 4h at least... to still get it also only in 3D.

In that cinema a very few 2 D dubbed get offered, the most start as 3D (midnights....), a little bit better the next day, weekend the 2D split increases

There is another cinema, a bit farer away as the 2 nearer to me, but not as far as the good quality one, they have an urgent need to modernise, that offers a real mix of 2D and 3D.

But e.g very loud air exchanger in the most of the rooms, if not in all of them, in some rooms a real bad sound quality also, no room is really good....

 

So I get to see my movies in probably 80% of the cases in 3D. The fun part? I can only see 2D in real life, means always, not only whilst watching something on a screen. Paying for dark colours for an effect I do not even see, yep, that makes sense (not)

[sfran43]

 

[NoLegMan]

Predictions seem a bit high for Shazam IMO, I'm not sure it will play like a family film, I think it will drop 60%, Hellboy will probably do worse than 15mill, Captain Marvel is probably spot on. Just my thoughts on it. Probably will be wrong. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

Predictions seem a bit high for Shazam IMO, I'm not sure it will play like a family film, I think it will drop 60%, Hellboy will probably do worse than 15mill, Captain Marvel is probably spot on. Just my thoughts on it. Probably will be wrong. 

Shazam would have to have absolutely terrible WoM for a 60% drop.

[NoLegMan]

I'm just not sure it's a film folks really will rush out to see in it's second weekend, near 60% isn't uncommon for superhero films. But it's just a prediction. 

[NoLegMan]

I think it's going to play more like Antman and the Wasp tbh.

[cdsacken]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

I'm just not sure it's a film folks really will rush out to see in it's second weekend, near 60% isn't uncommon for superhero films. But it's just a prediction. 

Problem with this prediction is that it assumes something else good is coming out. Hellboy is gonna be horrible. 50% drop is more reasonable imo. 

 

BOR's estimate of CM is pretty fair. Initially I had it at 8.9 but I'm leaning towards 8.2 after the Tuesday number, perhaps 8.5 if it holds better today.

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Problem with this prediction is that it assumes something else good is coming out. Hellboy is gonna be horrible. 50% drop is more reasonable imo. 

 

BOR's estimate of CM is pretty fair. Initially I had it at 8.9 but I'm leaning towards 8.2 after the Tuesday number, perhaps 8.5 if it holds better today.

Could be right, but to be fair Idk how much overlap Hellboy and Shazam would have. Hellboy is R Rated, right?

[NoLegMan]

But oh my Hellboy may be the worst rated superhero film of the decade hahah.

[cdsacken]

It is but not much is coming out. That, excellent reviews and decent WOM should propel it to a smaller drop.

 

Dumbo had awful reviews, was super long (bad thing when it comes to kids), and had pretty awful WOM. That only dropped 60% on the week Shazam opened to 53 million.

[terrestrial]

 

12 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 14	% Change from Last Wknd
Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$26,500,000	$92,300,000	-50%
Hellboy (2019)	Lionsgate / Summit	$16,800,000	$16,800,000	NEW
Little	Universal	$14,300,000	$14,300,000	NEW
Missing Link	United Artists Releasing	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Dumbo	Disney	$10,400,000	$89,600,000	-43%
Pet Sematary (2019)	Paramount	$10,200,000	$38,900,000	-58%
Captain Marvel	Disney / Marvel	$8,000,000	$384,600,000	-36%
Us	Universal	$7,500,000	$162,700,000	-46%
After (2019)	Aviron	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	NEW
The Best of Enemies	STX Entertainment	$2,400,000	$7,800,000	-46%

 

that added line often gets missed at BOPro's weekend estimates (meant for NoLegMan)

Quote

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

 

8 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

5 hours ago, NoLegMan said:

Predictions seem a bit high for Shazam IMO, I'm not sure it will play like a family film, I think it will drop 60%, Hellboy will probably do worse than 15mill, Captain Marvel is probably spot on. Just my thoughts on it. Probably will be wrong. 

 

5 hours ago, NoLegMan said:

But oh my Hellboy may be the worst rated superhero film of the decade hahah.

Quote

TOMATOMETER 10%

All Critics Average Rating: 3.38/10

Reviews Count: 49
Fresh: 5
Rotten: 44

TOMATOMETER 7%

Top Critics Average Rating: 3.11/10

Reviews Count: 15
Fresh: 1
Rotten: 14

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by terrestrial

[cdsacken]

Hellboy is overstated imo. Little..... I have no idea. Seriously doubt CM is at 384.6 by weekend. Worse cast scenario I think 385.5 up to 387 although 387 feels unlikely now.

Edited April 11, 2019 by cdsacken

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Hellboy is overstated imo. Little..... I have no idea. Seriously doubt CM is at 384.6 by weekend. Worse cast scenario I think 385.5 up to 387 although 387 feels unlikely now.

that is, where I think the $1m got lost, see earlier posts in the CM thread 😉

 

I think they released that before the Hellboy reviews got out, how bad it gets they might not have fully known

we will see

[a2k]

64.8 cume for Shazam

 

3.0 (-39%)

2.8 (-7%)

 

7.5 (+168%)

12.0 (+60%)

8.0 (-33%)

= 27.5

 

98.1 10-day

 

Adding 2.0-2.5x the 2nd weekend,

98.1 + 27.5*2.0 = 153.1

98.1 + 27.5*2.5 = 166.9

 

Hope it makes it past 160.

[AndyK]

I think Shazam could do a sub 50% drop at the weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if it did 27.

 

CM is playing like SMH which is how I thought it would play out after seeing that 3rd WE drop.

 

HB is going to flop hard.

[cdsacken]

ok no I am realizing just how hard 28 is. I think Wednesday numbers give a much better idea of how much it has to sky rocket. If it holds really well from Tuesday, it makes it so much easier to reach 28/29/30. What I don't know is if this really is going to act like a family film or not. Variables everywhere!

[sfran43]

 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, AndyK said:

I think Shazam could do a sub 50% drop at the weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if it did 27.

 

CM is playing like SMH which is how I thought it would play out after seeing that 3rd WE drop.

 

HB is going to flop hard.

yep, hellbomb incoming.