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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Friday estimates - Shazam $6.37M | Little $5.37M | Hellboy $4.93M | Pet Sematary $2.93M | After $2.90M | Dumbo $2.27M

By sfran43, in Numbers and Data

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dakus Indie Sensation

dakus

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Not sure how they're still getting the numbers they are from those previews, especially After

 

Does Deadline ever change their estimates from previews alone? As far as I can remember they basically only start to revise the weekend predictions during midday.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sheikh said:

UA’s Missing Link, another stop-motion pic from the Oscar-nominated toon house of Laika, follows Mr. Link, an ape (voiced by Zack Galifianakis) who after living a solitary life in the Pacific Northwest, recruits fearless explorer Sir Lionel Frost (Hugh Jackman) to guide him on a journey to find his long-lost relatives in the fabled valley of Shangri-La. The pic is expected to open between $10M-11M at 3,413 theaters. Last night Missing Link made $230K, which is just under the $375K that Sony’s Smurfs: Lost Village did in April 2017; that pic opened to $13.2M after a $4.1M Friday.

 

We’re hearing that After made $550K in previews last night, which isn’t too shabby for an indie teen movie, especially on a night when only 2% K-12 schools are off. Compare this to a big studio spend teen movie like WArner Bros.’ If I Stay which made $1.1M. Is it front-loaded? We’ll see. After will play in 2,100 theaters and is set to make in the low single digits, akin to such indie teen pics like Midnight Sun ($4M) and Before I Fall ($4.6M) which did not hold previews.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/hellboy-shazam-weekend-box-office-1202594516/

Low single digits seems way too low for After...

Double digits (unfortunately) seems a little too high for Missing Link...

Mid-teens seems dead on for Little...

And if I'm betting, I'd put Little over Hellboy by a hair, since Hellboy may have been front-loaded by the T-Mobile deal and by the uber-fan audience...so even though it starts higher, I'm seeing a much lower weekend multiplier...although those TMobile folks could have bought for Fri/Sat night, too, and ruined my expectations:)...

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure the only interesting thing about After is the famous heritage of its leads (the guy is Ralph Fiennes' nephew - and even played the child version of Voldemort via flashbacks in Half-Blood Prince a decade ago - and the girl is the sister of Katherine Langford from 13 Reasons Why/Love, Simon/a still undisclosed role in Endgame).

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Poor Laika, their marketing budget must have really gotten slashed this time around considering how non-existent it was for Missing Link. They have typically gone all out for marketing their films as far as a stop motion studio goes. 

Missing Link was released by United Artist through a deal with Annapurna (who seem to have given up as far as being an actual distribution house is concerned since they are releasing their next few movies too). Makes sense that it was more or less dumped.

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted (edited)

To add or not to add... (already posted in general and daily)

 

its another animated.... (as here is another in discussion)

 

29 seconds ago

UNTITLED LORD AND MILLER drops from Sony Pictures Animation Sept. 18, 2020.

Edited by terrestrial
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Daenys Cult Classic

Daenys

Posted
Posted

https://deadline.com/2019/04/hellboy-shazam-weekend-box-office-1202594516/

 

Quote

2nd Update, 12:32PM: As expected, New Line/DC’s Shazam! remains firm at No. 1 in its second go-round with an estimated $25M, -53% off a second Friday of $7M. By Sunday he won’t quite be at $100M yet with $94.7M based on these midday estimates.

Millennium’s $50M remake of Hellboystarring David Harbour in the title role is looking like $5.5M today for a 3-day of $13M-$14M.  There’s only 4% K-12 schools out and 1% colleges today per ComScore, but that number grows respectively on Monday to 20% and 5% and explodes on Good Friday to 74% and 29%. Everyone is trying to get as much business in heading into Easter, and especially before Avengers: Endgame takes away all the business.

 

Universal’s Little if it has a great Saturday from matinees could upset Hellboy. Right now the body swap comedy is seeing $5m today for a $14M third place.

Paramount’s Pet Sematary will take fourth in weekend 2 with $9.4M, -62% for a running total of $40.5M by Sunday.

Disney’s Dumbo owns 5th place in weekend 3 with an estimated $2M today and a 3-day of $8M for a running total of $88.8M by Sunday.

Other openers: UA/Laika’s Missing Link is looking at an estimated $2M today and $7M for the weekend while Aviron/Voltage’s After is seeing an estimated $2.5M and $6.5M weekend.

As we always say, these estimates can change greatly by tonight and into tomorrow.

 

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