The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

And you thought Captain will drop today. 😏

What’s the good word on the slate? Marvel +5%?

[TwoMisfits]

How about Marvel +20% and DC +15%:)...dream bigger:)... 

[HouseOfTheSun]

THE NUMBERS CHARLIE 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

How about Marvel +20% and DC +15%:)...dream bigger:)... 

That's bit too bigger for both. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's bit too bigger for both. 

But close?:)

[charlie Jatinder]

I will edit it once I reach home, rough math tells C 3.5 S 6 CoLL 7.8

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

And you thought Captain will drop today. 😏

At minimum:  

3.15

3.2

2.15 (-33)  

 

8.5

 

Now I lose my mind briefly:

3.15

3.6

2.65  

 

9.4 

 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

I will edit it once I reach home, rough math tells C 3.5 S 6 CoLL 7.8

9 is happening 

[charlie Jatinder]

If it drop as much as BP on Easter Sunday, i.e. 28% will easily cross $400mn on Sunday.

 

We can afford a 31.5% drop on Sunday.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I will edit it once I reach home, rough math tells C 3.5 S 6 CoLL 7.8

Jeez, the weekend is increasing after all.   

 

This would be +7% to the CM/S ratio from yesterday, closely mirrors movietickets movement.

[Legion Again]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

The era of relatively steady drops in weekend ranking is over. 7th weekend shall place ~17th best all movies, and 2nd or 3rd best MCU, depending on beating The Avenger’s 8.9.    

 

Next weekend should be about flat at 9M (maybe?). 8.7+ to be a top 10 all-time 8th weekend and beat Black Panther for the #1 MCU 8th weekend. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Saturday Estimates (+/- 2%)

 

CoLL: 7.9

Shazam: 6.15

BT: 3.9

CM: 3.5

Little: 3.15

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Saturday Estimates (+/- 2%)

 

CoLL: 7.9

Shazam: 6.15

BT: 3.9

CM: 3.5

Little: 3.15

With these numbers the CM/S ratio is +5.7 percentage points from yesterday. MT was 5.2.

[druv10]

13 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Saturday Estimates (+/- 2%)

 

CoLL: 7.9

Shazam: 6.15

BT: 3.9

CM: 3.5

Little: 3.15

Fantastic for CM, 9M+ for the weekend!!! I'm almost locking 420M now. 430M wouldn't surprise me, phenomenal late legs.

Edited April 21, 2019 by druv10

[kitik]

How in the world did Captain Marvel get to 400M already ?????

That's just insane!

[Krissykins]

I knew Curse of La Llorona would fall big on Saturday but that’s a bit steeper than expected. Weekend could still be $24m though, much higher than tracking. 

[cdsacken]

43 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I knew Curse of La Llorona would fall big on Saturday but that’s a bit steeper than expected. Weekend could still be $24m though, much higher than tracking. 

Seems that way. It could drop 45% and still hit 24 million.

[Thomas Beck]

4 hours ago, druv10 said:

Fantastic for CM, 9M+ for the weekend!!! I'm almost locking 420M now. 430M wouldn't surprise me, phenomenal late legs.

But won't it drop like a rock along with all other movies next week when Endgame arrives?

Edited April 21, 2019 by Thomas Beck

[Celedhring]

7 minutes ago, Thomas Beck said:

But won't it drop like a rock along with all other movies next week when Endgame arrives?

Double features with Endgame will keep it afloat. Black Panther remained mostly flat last year, although it didn't have such a monster pre-Avengers frame like CM is having. After next weekend we should expect CM to keep posting "normal" 30%-40% drops.

 

420s should be locked.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Celedhring

[cdsacken]

16 minutes ago, Thomas Beck said:

But won't it drop like a rock along with all other movies next week when Endgame arrives?

Definitely not. Black panther dropped 4% when Infinity War came out. I imagine a small drop.