The Calm Before The Storm Weekend Thread: Estimates - Curse Of LaLlorona $26.51M | Shazam $17.34M | Breakthrough 11.0M | CM $9.10M

[TMP]

Wondering if Annab3lle can pull a "The Nun" and open to $50m in June.

[That One Girl]

@CJohn I’m in an empty theater for After right now and I’m almost an hour in.  

[Alli]

superhero and horror movies are pretty much the only ones guaranteed to hit big

[RealLyre]

58 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

Have a feeling wom is going to kill the film before Sunday.

wom did not kill The Nun over its weekend, and this has has about the same critical reception and also part of the conjuring universe. it'll live, I can see it doing 26M/56M.

 

[Eric Duncan]

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Only wondering, to those americans here, do you guys get any holidays for Good Friday? Could that be slightly boosting previews?

Yeh it does. 

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

The only caution I give is that Good Friday heavily inflates the Friday grosses, almost all films will be flat / up or down 5-10% Saturday which will only make the openers look worse in comparison. Friday usually reps more than 50% for the whole weekend so it needs to pull 13+ to have any hopes of going over 25m. 

Yeh horror movies don’t tend to have great multipliers over Easter weekend.

 

In fact the only two I could find were Grindhouse (2.3x) and Shutter (2.25x). Both fell 19% on Saturday. So I’d expect something similar for La Llorona. 

 

But hey, an opening over $20m saves some face when it was tracking in the mid teens. It cost $15m, it’ll probably do $100m+ worldwide, it’ll make money. 

[narniadis]

I shall rephrase to close to 50% but my point still stands. COL needs to make big bank today if it wants 25m cause it will fall steep on both Sat and Sunday. 

There is a reason horror doesnt usually open around Easter. 

[NamakFiskKa]

2 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

The power of TCU is unstoppable right now, if Annabelle: Comes Home gets decent reviews, it’s opening above $50m.

I dont think even a quarter of the crowd even knows its explicitly linked to the franchise

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

@CJohn I’m in an empty theater for After right now and I’m almost an hour in.  

 

They fuck once in this movie that advertises itself as being Fifty Shades of Grey for kids

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I shall rephrase to close to 50% but my point still stands. COL needs to make big bank today if it wants 25m cause it will fall steep on both Sat and Sunday. 

There is a reason horror doesnt usually open around Easter. 

This  

 

Could point to a $10m+ opening day. 

 

-20% Sat, -40% Sun. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

wom did not kill The Nun over its weekend, and this has has about the same critical reception and also part of the conjuring universe. it'll live, I can see it doing 26M/56M.

 

I can see it missing a multiplier of 2.0, especially since it (along with everything else) is gonna be decimated next weekend in the Endgame onslaught.

[CJohn]

10 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

They fuck once in this movie that advertises itself as being Fifty Shades of Grey for kids

They do a lot more in the book.

Spoiler

He actually touches her in the lake. He actually goes down on her on the first sex scene. In the movie he doesn't do those things. 

Still, I will never understand why they call it Fifty Shades for teens. I will never forget seeing it in a sold out show tho. It was legendary. A real event.

Edited April 19, 2019 by CJohn

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I can see it missing a multiplier of 2.0, especially since it (along with everything else) is gonna be decimated next weekend in the Endgame onslaught.

There are 300 million reasons why it will drop 80% next weekend.

[TMP]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

There are 300 million reasons why it will drop 80% next weekend.

The Battle of Winterfell is gonna hit 300m viewers?

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

There are 300 million reasons why it will drop 80% next weekend.

Really hoping that club pans out CJohn.

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

48 minutes ago, CJohn said:

They do a lot more in the book.

 

Still, I will never understand why they call it Fifty Shades for teens. I will never forget seeing it in a sold out show tho. It was legendary. A real event.

Similar setting (Seattle area), same sort of virginal college girl being tempted by a handsome bad boy. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by BoxOfficeChica

[Maxmoser3]

La Llorna should do fine considering it’s little budget. The film really only needs teens to whatever. If it pushes today and makes over $20 million this weekend. Very good but next Friday it will be dead 

[Djsoke]

There seems to be some overreaction for La Llorona's thurs number. The Thursday preceding Good Friday is always inflated. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Djsoke

[Alli]

New Line’s The Curse of La Llorona is eyeing a $9.1M+ Friday for a $19M-$20M opening at 3,372 thaeters while the studio’s Shazam! will settle for second at $15.7M (a 36% dip) at 4,183 off a third Friday of $6.3M and a running total by Sunday of $119.7M .  Since Llorona is an R-rated horror, expect this movie to play into the late hours, natch. Llorona cost before P&A a thrifty $9M net in production costs, hence a solid result here.  That $9.1M today includes last night’s $2.75M previews.

 

Llorona‘s Friday bests Escape Room‘s first day plus previews ($7.6M), and it’s just under Pet Sematary‘s $9.9M and right on the money with Lights Out‘s $9.1M.

 

Disney-Fox’s Breakthrough is seeing an estimated $3.5M today for a 3-day of $10M, and five-day of $13.5M.

Disney will own spots four and six as well respectively with Captain Marvel ($7M, -18% and $398M cume) and Dumbo ($5.9M, -37%, and a $100.3M).

Universal’s Little is seeing a second weekend of$6.8M, -56% for a 10-day of $27.7M in 5th.

Disneynature’s Penguins is eyeing $650K today, $1.77M over FSS and $2.7M over five days.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/the-curse-of-la-llorona-shazam-easter-weekend-box-office-2-1202598869/

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Alli

[Ms Lady Hawk]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

New Line’s The Curse of La Llorona is eyeing a $9.1M+ Friday for a $19M-$20M opening at 3,372 thaeters while the studio’s Shazam! will settle for second at $15.7M (a 36% dip) at 4,183 off a third Friday of $6.3M and a running total by Sunday of $119.7M .  Since Llorona is an R-rated horror, expect this movie to play into the late hours, natch. Llorona cost before P&A a thrifty $9M net in production costs, hence a solid result here.  That $9.1M today includes last night’s $2.75M previews.

 

Llorona‘s Friday bests Escape Room‘s first day plus previews ($7.6M), and it’s just under Pet Sematary‘s $9.9M and right on the money with Lights Out‘s $9.1M.

 

Disney-Fox’s Breakthrough is seeing an estimated $3.5M today for a 3-day of $10M, and five-day of $13.5M.

Disney will own spots four and six as well respectively with Captain Marvel ($7M, -18% and $398M cume) and Dumbo ($5.9M, -37%, and a $100.3M).

Universal’s Little is seeing a second weekend of$6.8M, -56% for a 10-day of $27.7M in 5th.

Disneynature’s Penguins is eyeing $650K today, $1.77M over FSS and $2.7M over five days.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/the-curse-of-la-llorona-shazam-easter-weekend-box-office-2-1202598869/

 

Good for COL. Shazam is going to be at around 125 million by the time Endgame comes out. It should end its run at around 150, if it stabilizes after next weekend. Pretty good.

 

Captain Marvel is rolling along like a juggernaut- fueled by Endgame, of course. Wouldn’t be shocked to see it higher than 7 million.

 

Little dropped harder than I thought it would.