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ENDGAME of an Era: Endgame #1 finish DOM OR WW (Bonus: BOTH) (Deluxe Bonus: 1B+ & 3B+)

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Posted (edited)

As foreshadowed earlier tonight.         

 

The Preamble

Spoiler

 

I’ve wanted to make an Endgame club for a while now, but there were some problems. First, many other Endgame clubs already exist, and I don’t want to just provide redundancy. The domestic previews and OW were covered. The WW OW, the DOM+China OW. Between the over Titanic club and the MCU 2019>2018 club there are already lots of outlets to express measured optimism about its WW total. The only logical domain left is DOM total, but then what are you supposed to pick? Over Avatar DOM isn’t bold enough. And over TFA is something I cannot bring myself to believe, and therefore couldn’t make a club for... I thought a couple weeks ago.      

 

Recently a separate problem has emerged with Endgame clubs: too many people are IN. Their carefully chosen bold goals of yesteryear are now bandied about in Deadline. When they succeed, they will not truly separate the timid from the visionaries. The clubiverse called out for order. A hard choice, to be undertaken by only those of the strongest will. A club to turn your legs to jelly.   

 

Between the presales data, a small trick to make the club slightly easier (knocking either king off its perch shall suffice for victory), and a renewed faith in the Russos and M&M after rewatching IW, it is finally time to bring that club into being.

 

The Math  

Spoiler

So, just how will this all come together? How can a non-Christmas movie have the legs to reach these heights? It’s simple, we won’t require Christmas legs, we will require just one thing: an A+. By most audience rating metrics, Infinity War was the best received film in the MCU — why, then, just the A? Because it was not truly the end, but merely the beginning thereof. It offered no catharsis, but despair. When the Russos deliver the goods in this final chapter of the Infinity saga, it shall be as it was for The Return of the King, an A+ at last. The third A+ of the MCU.    

 

Now Endgame has a lot more competition than BP, and it won’t hit as many infrequent movie goers, so let’s not go crazy with a 3.5x here or anything. The avengers franchise shall end as it began — the first to pass a new 100s mark on OW, masterfully pulling off what no one truly believed was possible, and gliding despite that outrageous weekend to a nice clean 3x multi.    

 

Now we only need a 313M OW, and this is well within the realm of possibility.

For previews, 67M, a modest +72% from IW.

For the pure FSS we then need 246M, and we’ll distribute it with the pure Friday:Sat ratio of The Avengers and the Sat:Sun drop of IW:

80.9

89.6 (+10.7%)  

75.5 (-15.7%)    

 

Friday might be a bit too high there, but maybe not. Frankly Sat can go higher, so we have a little wiggle room.   

 

And there you have it, 313x3=939>937.    

 

Or if this is a bridge too far for you but you’re really bullish OS, 860+1930 or so wins the other way.  Check out the international thread for lots of great data and evaluate that path yourself if it interests you.

The Logistics

Spoiler

The elephant in the room: This club is being started very late close to the premier. But, fear not, for this is a club whose fate will not be known with certainty just by the end of the OW, but depends on both OW and legs. As such, you will all have until the first big datapoint on legs, the 2nd Friday, to join me in glory. Specifically club participation will close noon Eastern time on Saturday, May 4th. We won’t have an actual for Friday yet but we’ll have some very robust estimates.   

 

Bonus: The either or structure of this club leads very naturally to the existence of a bonus BOTH option. Even I’m not willing to board that train yet, but it’s there if you want it I guess.   

 

Extra Bonus: 1B DOM+3B WW

The Teams

Spoiler

Team BILLIE TRINITY (Deluxe Bonus):  

Thanos Legion

Iuyaki

BlueCore

RealLyre

BoxOfficeZ

Jay Beezy

Menor

Plasmodesmata

Felandria

druv10

Geveeso

Omnicore

HouseOfTheSun

captainwondyful

B-Rabbit

Immortal

nguyenkhoi282

ArCaN1St

Bleachella

Sahmeelg

TalismanRing

GOXOG

arlo245

JimiQ

VanillaSkies

 

Team INFINITY SUCCESS (Bonus):

Charlie Jatinder

Doctor Stark

RealCaptMarvel

TwoMisfits

Spiderbyte

DIAMONDZ

movieMan89

WrathofHan

JamesCameronScholar

MattW

bladels

LinksterAC (maybe vanilla?)

KP1025

Stealthyfrog

Andreas

kjtc

 

Team SNAP THE KINGS (In): 

Bordlove 

Nero

rerga 

CGLShark99

AnDr3s

IcarusReborn

Sue Denim

Icefire9yt

DarthLensherr

CloneWars

DeeCee

Jedijake

LaughingEvans

JGAR4LIFE

Slambros

NannerManCan 

Felandria (Maybe Deluxe?)

stfletch

nick64

Marek the Jedi

Justvision

edroger3

VenomXXR

langer

 

Team JELLYLEGS (Out):

Deja23

Premium George

Taruseth

Royce

cdsacken

ZeeSoh

Shayhiri

Peludo

IronJimbo

I’m losing my club virginity here, but don’t hold back — the most confident responses will be the most fun to read in 3 months 😎

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Oh wow. I’m Team JELLYLEGS. OUT. 

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3 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Porque no los dos? 

Have you read the full post? Just let me know what team to put you under 👍

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I admire your first club and the balls to make it. 

 

However....

 

OUT

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Posted (edited)

That's one hell of club. Avatar is bit too much. Even Avatar 2 ain't certain to do that. But then, if Dom go over TFA, WW may fell as well.

 

I myself pointed that 3x thing (1st 100mn, 1st 200mn) few days back and that's our only hope. For that hope, I am in for Domestic. WW is perhaps too big with exchange rates issue. Over Avatar adjusted for exchange rates or admissions, definitely IN.

 

 

Edit: IN for Avatar WW. Dom seems tough but WTF. IN.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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My mind says OUT but my heart says IN. So I would go with IN.

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I am team Avengers #AvengersForever

 

But I'm IN. Even if I am proved wrong this movie will be the final and one of the most incredible, extraordinary, epic whatever you wanna call it. So I'm IN just for that... 😎

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I really wish I could.

 

The ceiling is 320M/810/2.5B in my opinion...not enough for it to qualify for any of these, but what the hell...

 

In.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Recently a separate problem has emerged with Endgame clubs: too many people are IN.

 

37 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The clubiverse called out for order.

This club is already failing its first goal of getting majority OUTs...  

 

So the second goal will surely be a success for perfect balance.   

 

Just one more data point folks ;) 

Edited by Thanos Legion

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For my first comment ever after a year of lurking I’m going to go all in on the domestic record!!!! The heart wants what it wants!! 

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Posted (edited)

100% guaranteed. 1 billion Dom/3.5 billion WW is the floor. $1.5 billion OW.  IN on team Infinity Success.

Edited by Menor
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Posted (edited)

I was in but because I thought this was over Avatar DOM club and forgot SW7 existed....so OUT.

 

But still,

$315 million opening weekend

$137 million second weekend (-56.2%)

$63 million third weekend (-56.2%)

$33 million fourth weekend (-44%)

$20/26million fifth weekend(-39%/-21%)

$8.5 million sixth weekend (-57.5%)

$4.5 million seventh weakend (-47%)

 

$808 million total (2.565x multiplier)

OW is 39% of total

 

Avengers: Infinity War

$678.8 million total (2.634x multiplier) 

OW is 38% of total 

 

So pretty similar legs 

 

Competition by weekend

May 3-5: -56.2% against nothing really

May 10-12: -56.2% against PIKACHU

May 17-19: -44% against John Wick

MD Wknd: -39/-21% against Aladdin

May 31-Jun 2: -57.5% against Godzilla

June 7-9: -47% against Dark Phoenix

 

Ok, I'm done. 

 

Edited by Arlo245

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3 minutes ago, Arlo245 said:

$808 million total

This is about 130M short of the DOM route. Are you relying on 2B OS for the WW route?

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3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This is about 130M short of the DOM route. Are you relying on 2B OS for the WW route?

Shit, I thought this was an over Avatar club. Also literally forgot SW7 make fucking $939 million. Like I forgot how insane that run was haha. Yeah EG is not going to touch $900 million IMO. And $2B overseas will be tough but I think $1.8 billion is doable.....so I guess I'm out dispite how stratospheric my prediction is. I'm thinking $808M DOM/$1.8B OS/$2.608B WW

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Posted (edited)

Out on DOM, OS but WW could be close.

Dom, it might do something like 307M (OW) and then get an optimistic multi of 2.85 for 875M, though legs probably won't be that good.

And OS it won't be big enough in Europe to win, Avatar grossed 175.6M in France, 162.3M in Germany, 150M in the UK, 117M in Russia and 110M in Spain and Japan with 172M and Australia with 105.8M are well really big and in those, it will lose a lot, IW had 47.8M in France, 45.4M in Germany etc.

But if I am being optimistic and say Asia will compensate the drop in Europe, Japan and Australia than it might have an almost chance at winning worldwide.

But I think I will be OUT on all three.

But it will almost certainly sell more admissions WW than both Avatar and TFA as Avatar had just 14.7M in France, 11.3M in Germany, probably around 11M in the UK, 14.2M in Russia, 9.5M in Spain. While IW had insane numbers in Asia.

Edited by Taruseth
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Posted (edited)

jesus what a bold club you crazy crazy man. I love it.

 

Star Wars stans are just too crazy, even awful films they go see 10 times. Good one (TFA) 30 times.

 

 936 DOM feels like absolutely impossible.

 

#2 all DOM and WW best I can do. OUT

 

Gimme 825 DOM

Overseas 1.8

Total 2.625 and that's my pure fanatic prediction.

 

Edited by cdsacken
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