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Thanos Legion

ENDGAME of an Era: Endgame #1 finish DOM OR WW (Bonus: BOTH) (Deluxe Bonus: 1B+ & 3B+)

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I’ve updated the rolls. It’s possible that some people are currently listed twice if they joined and then went for a harder option, though I tried to check for that.  

 

Also some people join with messages that are pretty funny but don’t make it 100% clear what option they want, so I’ve used my judgement in such cases (e.g. I think @TalismanRing wants Deluxe based on that songs lyrics, but  @Andreas joined with a very enthusiastic gif that doesn’t say anything about bonus or deluxe so I’ve tentatively put them at regular IN for now).     

 

Club is closing in 42 hours, if you aren’t sure that you’re where you want to be wouldn’t hurt to double check. I’ll post one more reminder tomorrow and then one a few hours before close.

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Oh, and a personal reflection on this clubs’s outlook:   

Avatar is happening. Just very clear now. So anyone OUT is on the wrong side of history.       

TFA is uncertain, and 1B is a huge ask that will need a big 2nd weekend and some nice legs from there, so any of IN, BONUS, or DELUXE seem pretty defensible.

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5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 @Andreas joined with a very enthusiastic gif that doesn’t say anything about bonus or deluxe so I’ve tentatively put them at regular IN for now

Regular IN here, both DOM and WW, thanks!

I would've opted for deluxe WW if China were still on track for almost $700M.

 

$1B DOM seems a bit much, even TFA's record might be hard to get, but Avatar WW is truly going down 😁

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IN on regular WW

OUT on the rest

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I see it beating Avatar WW, but not TFA DOM.

 

WW : 2,9B$

DOM : 915M$

 

 

 

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Regular IN for both DOM and WW.  First post, first club, so here we go!

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Posted (edited)

I'm now IN for the deluxe club! 

 

 Assuming a $476 million first week (so a $22.6 million Thursday) ($473,894,638 actual), it's INSANE to think that this can drop 50% EVERY week and still make $952 million in it's domestic run. 

 

But obviously.....it won't be dropping 50% every week, maybe on select weeks yes, but I believe Spider-Man: Far From Home will boost numbers quite a bit as fans will want to rewatch Endgame so it can be fresh in their minds before they continue with Far From Home which is confirmed to be the end of Phase 3. Also Toy Story 4 and The Lion King might have double features and also the reception is out of this world. 

 

By comparison, Infinity War had a weekly average drop of 37.1% and if you don't count its first week drop, it dropped an average of only 36% a week from its second week until its closing date.

 

Endgame has undoubtedly more competition so let's put the week 1-to-2 drop at 56.4% (same as Infinity War) and make the average weekly drop from that point slightly higher than 36%. Let's say.... -39.5%

 

Assuming Endgame is in theaters for 20 weeks like Infinity War was

 

[EDIT: Made $473,894,638 actual for first week so I will make the second week drop slightly lighter at 55.8%, the third week drop slightly steeper at 40.1% and the rest of the drops the same -39.5% average to balance things out]

 

Week 1: $473,894,638 actual

 (Apr 26-May 2)

Week 2: $209,641,362 (-55.8%) ($500M/$600M )

Week 3: $125,559,280 (-40.1%) ($700M/$800M )

Week 4: $75,963,364 (-39.5% from now on)

Week 5: $45,957,835 ($900M )

Week 6: $27,804,490 (May 31-Jun 6)

Week 7: $16,821,717 

Week 8: $10,177,139

Week 9: $6,157,169

Week 10: $3,725,087 (Jun 28-Jul 4)

Week 11: $2,253,678

Week 12: $1,363,475

Week 13: $824,902 ($1B )

Week 14: $499,066 (Jul 26-Aug 1)

Week 15: $301,935

Week 16: $182,670

Week 17: $110,515

Week 18: $66,862

Week 19: $40,451 (Aug 30-Sep 5)

Week 20: $24,473

 

Total: 1,001,370,108

 

So IMO, I'd say this has a very good chance at hitting $1 billion domestic due a mix of very strong word of mouth, amazing repeat viewing value, and what I previously mentioned about Spider-Man: Far From Home's effect on said repeat viewings. There is just too much going for this movie!

 

FUCK IT I'M ON THE $1B DOM HYPE TRAIN!! 

Edited by Arlo245
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23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

So... should I put you down as OUT, or were you just sharing that to give everybody a good chuckle?

Absolutely not out. In fact, I'm rooting for Endgame to eclipse Avatar.

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On 5/2/2019 at 5:46 PM, Thanos Legion said:

I’ve updated the rolls. It’s possible that some people are currently listed twice if they joined and then went for a harder option, though I tried to check for that.  

 

Also some people join with messages that are pretty funny but don’t make it 100% clear what option they want, so I’ve used my judgement in such cases (e.g. I think @TalismanRing wants Deluxe based on that songs lyrics, but  @Andreas joined with a very enthusiastic gif that doesn’t say anything about bonus or deluxe so I’ve tentatively put them at regular IN for now).     

 

Club is closing in 42 hours, if you aren’t sure that you’re where you want to be wouldn’t hurt to double check. I’ll post one more reminder tomorrow and then one a few hours before close.

The song was just a bit of Deluxe humor. :lol:

 

I think it will fall at least $50m short domestic and $100m short WW for 1B/3B

 

Non deluxe over Avatar seems like the easier route (how funny is that) but I'm in for both over Avatar and TFA

 

 

 

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I have to back down and drop mine to just IN for WW #1. :(

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Posted (edited)

Still in for the deluxe. To the end.

Edited by stealthyfrog
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5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

14 hours and 20 mins to closing.     

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Thank you

I change to IN over Avatar WW

Still OUT over TFA DOM

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Final reminder, 2 hours 20 mins to closing.     

 

As club founder I’m going to stay in Deluxe, but realistically we’re probably just looking at the normal bonus now, some 940/2.85.

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Given the heavy odd in favour of EG, I am going against the tide and say OUT for both 

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Posted (edited)

And it’s 12:01. We are now officially CLOSED for business. Good luck to us all, cause that Deluxe is looking real tough right now.

Edited by Thanos Legion

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