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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $859M OS, $1.209B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

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Why are people stil on Endgame over Avatar train? 

 

Grow up, let's aim for big. 

 

3B+  Club.. Anyone with me? 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Think it was @Thanos Legion that predicted 26 days for 2 billion awhile back before the crazy reception. I tend to agree.

 

On 4/14/2019 at 10:08 PM, Thanos Legion said:

So over on reddit there was a post about speed to hit 1B and 1.5B, I said 

1B 5 days (international release, day 3 DOM)   

1.5B 9 days (maybe 10)   

2B 16-19 days (originally eyeballed a mega optimistic 14, but when I crunched the numbers more deeply that wasn’t really achievable)

 

Ended up writing a fairly long justification for that 2B speed and figured I might as well post it here.   

 

16 days of international release for Endgame will be the end of Thursday May 9th. There will be 14 days of DOM play, 16 days of China play, 16 days of OS-C-Russia play, and 11 days of Russia play since it opens on a Monday for some wacky reason. Comparing to IW:  
DOM — 258x2.63=679M, 486M or 71.5% by day 14

China — 200x1.88=376M, 330M or 88% by day 16

OS-C-R — 383x2.5=959M, 765.5 or 80% by day 16

Russia — 18.2x1.9=34.6M, 28.5 or 82.5% by day 11

 

So at aligned time of release, IW had 486+330+765.5+28.5=1610 or 78.6% of its gross. So if Endgame legs are the same, this would take about a 2/.786=2.54B total gross. **However,** Endgame is likely to be more frontloaded, especially with the 5-day opening in China and the entire 4-day extended Labor Day holiday falling within this period. Call it maybe 91% by day 16.    

 

Domestically and OS-C-R maybe a tad more frontloaded, let’s say 72.5% and 81% by day 14/16.  Russia I have no idea since it’s a Monday opening, small enough to not be a huge deal, just going to say 80% or so. Then if the 4 regions are about the same balance with each other as IW, the amount by then would be (492+342+777+28)/2048=80%. So passing 2B then would correspond to a WW total of about 2.5B. About the most optimistic I’m willing to go.

 

For 19 days IW aligned was at 548+340+830+30.5=1748.5, 85.4%. So that would correspond to a final gross of 2.34. Adjust for a bit more frontloading, and passing 2B on day 19 corresponds to a final gross of about 2.3B. Good enough for me.     

 

If final gross is more like 2.23, corresponds to passing 2B around 26 days. Still clobbering Avatar’s 47 day record.

Screw 26, I was on 16-19. Bullseye :Venom:   

 

If there is an issue with that forecast it will be 1.5 in only 8 days instead of 9 and 2B in 14-15 after all.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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FWIW it's worth I had no interest in IW or any other MCU movie besides BP at the cinema for years, but I'll probably see this in theaters. I can't be alone, so the growth market is definitely there. 

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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Is it? We will have 4 new Avatar films that all grossed more than endgame in just 2025. A2 next year BTW.

One of the greatest virtues of men is that they know what is done is done and move on. Avatar lost its WW no.1 record. Deal with it and hope that A2 might make a comeback (though I highly doubt it) 

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Just now, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

One of the greatest virtues of men is that they know what is done is done and move on. Avatar lost its WW no.1 record. Deal with it and hope that A2 might make a comeback (though I highly doubt it) 

 when did avatar lose it's ww no1 record? 

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7 minutes ago, GOXOG said:

 when did avatar lose it's ww no1 record? 

In 4 weeks since right now

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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Not so fast.

CCC_Cameron_0060_RGB.jpg

 

Someone's getting a little nervous!

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Ah, I see it's going to be EG vs. Avatar that will be the flame war of choice this weekend.

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4 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

In 4 weeks since right now

so still not and i know the hype,possibility of getting over Avatar but no way in 4 weeks

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31 minutes ago, MadmenEndgame said:

Why are people stil on Endgame over Avatar train? 

 

Grow up, let's aim for big. 

 

3B+  Club.. Anyone with me? 

 

 

Wrong target.

 

Avatar is currently sitting at $3.2bn and Gone with the Wind $3.7bn.

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It’s wednesday, why is there a weekend thread?

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Just now, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

It’s wednesday, why is there a weekend thread?

I asked a few pages back: from now on we can start domestic weekend threads now when international preview numbers come out 

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1 minute ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

It’s wednesday, why is there a weekend thread?

Because we are witnessing history being made

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Avatar 2 O/U Avengers: Endgame Worldwide would make an interesting club

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46 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

Screw 26, I was on 16-19. Bullseye :Venom:   

 

If there is an issue with that forecast it will be 1.5 in only 8 days instead of 9 and 2B in 14-15 after all.

Yep then 98% of total WW will be done before summer

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2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Avatar 2 O/U Avengers: Endgame Worldwide would make an interesting club

Not really.

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14 minutes ago, BlitheringEdiot said:

Because we are witnessing history being made

Everyday is history being made, so this is both true and redundant.

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5km hike and I’ve made it. 

 

Unfortunately I get here and find he’s double booked the room. 

 

Friendly neighbourhood...

 

knV5Lfm.jpg

 

 

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Opening Day record broken in NZ on a random Wednesday. 

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