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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $859M OS, $1.209B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

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Biggest debut ever in Portugal, of the 3 Imax screens in the country all of them were sold out, the one in Lisbon had to schedule extra sessions for 09:40 Sunday morning. Saw it Thursday on 2D screen then on saturday on IMAX, the first time I saw an Imax movie.

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Posted (edited)

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

Edited by CloneWars

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AEG has taken the OW record for Spain too, with €10.2m (previous was Breaking Dawn Part 2 with €9.2m). That's a huge number, and I'm really curious about legs from here on out. No CBM has ever gone past €25m in this market, and IW made "just" €22m.

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2 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

Well people are already reporting sellouts happening next weekend so I don't think the drop will be huge. I am expecting something under 60% for 150+M

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3 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

Define huge. 70% drop?

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3 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

I don't know. I am going to see the movie this tuesday in Belgium and my showtime is almost 80-85% I checked other showtimes that day and they alos sold very good (Belgium normaly doesn't like SH movies that much) but this Tuesday is almost on par with TFA holiday tuesday in Belgium. So It might be leggier than you think.

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1 minute ago, Celedhring said:

AEG has taken the OW record for Spain too, with €10.2m (previous was Breaking Dawn Part 2 with €9.2m). That's a huge number, and I'm really curious about legs from here on out. No CBM has ever gone past €25m in this market, and IW made "just" €22m.

I went to see how many Imax screens in continental Spain and they have only 3 too, I tought there would be alot more, that explains why there were some spanish families on my session, they come to the Ikea and stay to see a movie too, lol

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1 minute ago, Celedhring said:

AEG has taken the OW record for Spain too, with €10.2m (previous was Breaking Dawn Part 2 with €9.2m). That's a huge number, and I'm really curious about legs from here on out. No CBM has ever gone past €25m in this market, and IW made "just" €22m.

The biggest SH film ever is Spider-man with €22.67m. IW did "just" €20.5m.

 

After this opening I find hard this fails reaching €30m. I am thinking in 32-33 million, at the same level, unadjusted, than ROTK or TFA.

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Just now, pepsa said:

I don't know. I am going to see the movie this tuesday in Belgium and my showtime is almost 80-85% I checked other showtimes that day and they alos sold very good (Belgium normaly doesn't like SH movies that much) but this Tuesday is almost on par with TFA holiday tuesday in Belgium. So It might be leggier than you think.

I'm predicting good legs, just a harsh second weekend drop followed by it stabilizing. 

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10 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

I do not think it will drop so much. I do not remember the IW's previews data, but we could see this:

 

The real weekend is 350-67=283 million. A 50% drop of that gives 141.5. I think it could challenge the 2nd weekend record of TFA (149.2).

 

150m second weekend would mean a 57.2% drop relative to the whole OW. IW dropped a 55.5%.

 

With 150 it would probably be bordering $600m cume in 10 days, still 60 million over TFA (although TFA still had an incredible 90m 3rd weekend thanks to Christmas).

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11 minutes ago, peludo said:

I do not think it will drop so much. I do not remember the IW's previews data, but we could see this:

 

The real weekend is 350-67=283 million. A 50% drop of that gives 141.5. I think it could challenge the 2nd weekend record of TFA (149.2).

 

150m second weekend would mean a 57.2% drop relative to the whole OW. IW dropped a 55.5%.

 

With 150 it would probably be bordering $600m cume in 10 days, still 60 million over TFA (although TFA still had an incredible 90m 3rd weekend thanks to Christmas).

 

I always thought that 90M 3rd weekend will be TFA's longest-standing record.

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Endgame will probably beat Avatar's domestic by the end of its third weekend if we get  ~140mn 2nd weekend and  ~95mn 3rd weekend + good holds on weekends.

Any BO expert wanna evaluate how probable this estimation is?

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18 minutes ago, peludo said:

 

The real weekend is 350-67=283 million. A 50% drop of that gives 141.5. I think it could challenge the 2nd weekend record of TFA (149.2).

 

 

Real weekend is more like 358-60 = 298

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5 minutes ago, American Pie is better said:

Endgame will probably beat Avatar's domestic by the end of its third weekend if we get  ~140mn 2nd weekend and  ~95mn 3rd weekend + good holds on weekends.

Any BO expert wanna evaluate how probable this estimation is?

I'm hardly an "expert", but a $95M third weekend seems incredibly optimistic. $140M second weekend seems reasonable, but anything over $80M would be very surprising for the third. $70-75M would be a strong showing.

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35 minutes ago, peludo said:

The biggest SH film ever is Spider-man with €22.67m. IW did "just" €20.5m.

 

After this opening I find hard this fails reaching €30m. I am thinking in 32-33 million, at the same level, unadjusted, than ROTK or TFA.

I really need a better source for historic Spanish BO data. I'm always translating back to euros from BOM and I end up introducing misadjustments even when taking exchange rates of that year into account. What do you use?

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37 minutes ago, peludo said:

The biggest SH film ever is Spider-man with €22.67m. IW did "just" €20.5m.

 

After this opening I find hard this fails reaching €30m. I am thinking in 32-33 million, at the same level, unadjusted, than ROTK or TFA.

€30m requires slightly better legs than IW, which did just a little under 3x over here. But it would be cool if the SH genre broke the glass ceiling they historically have had here (they do well, just not hugely well).

 

I just caught a professor at the uni I work for discussing the movie with one of the employees at the cafeteria, which is pretty telling since this a pretty uptight conservative place.

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44 minutes ago, HFFC77 said:

I went to see how many Imax screens in continental Spain and they have only 3 too, I tought there would be alot more, that explains why there were some spanish families on my session, they come to the Ikea and stay to see a movie too, lol

 

We used to have more, but most of them have closed down throughout the years. The recession made them financial black holes (huge expenses to build/maintain, audiences not willing to pay the premium prices).

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Posted (edited)

Using 358 AEG's OW was 6.0x it's previews. AIW's was 6.6x so one can see some front-loading due to unprecedented demand and sequel factor.

 

AIW's -55.5% drop will be very tough to match and gives 159 2nd weekend. Guessing high-140s/ low-150s.

Edited by a2k
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26 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

I really need a better source for historic Spanish BO data. I'm always translating back to euros from BOM and I end up introducing misadjustments even when taking exchange rates of that year into account. What do you use?

Ministry of Culture

 

Just type the film you want to see the data. It can delay the updates, but I find it quite accurate.

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8 minutes ago, a2k said:

Using 358 AEG's OW was 6.0x it's previews. AIW's was 6.6x so one can see some front-loading due to unprecedented demand and sequel factor.

 

AIW's -55.5% drop will be very tough to match and gives 159 2nd weekend. Guessing high-140s/ low-150s.

High previews percentage doesn't necessary translate to front loading. Especially when AEG's daily gross is so close to the ceiling

 

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