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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $859M OS, $1.209B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

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40 minutes ago, American Pie is better said:

Endgame will probably beat Avatar's domestic by the end of its third weekend if we get  ~140mn 2nd weekend and  ~95mn 3rd weekend + good holds on weekends.

Any BO expert wanna evaluate how probable this estimation is?

For a 95m 3rd weekend I think it would be needed +170m 2nd weekend, what would lock $1b DOM. I do not see it possible... unless the craziness continues.

 

Right now, I am thinking in maybe 145-150 2nd weekend and then about 75-80m 3d weekend (Pikachu's release). By then it should be at maybe 720.

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1 hour ago, CloneWars said:

Does anyone else think this will have a massive drop next weekend. I feel like there was a huge rush factor for everyone to see this to avoid spoilers, and well, to see it because everyone else was seeing it. Right now, I'm predicting $135M for next weekend. 

 

And, if it does drop big, people shouldn't freak out because I think it will stabilize afterwards. 

Yeah it will drop hard next weekend. And BOT will be surprised like always and say.  OMG IT FELL HARDER THAN EXPECTED. This movie will reach 800 m domestically at best.

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2 minutes ago, peludo said:

unless the craziness continues. 

I hope it does. The movie just devolving to standard drops would be a little boring after this opening weekend.

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27 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

€30m requires slightly better legs than IW, which did just a little under 3x over here. But it would be cool if the SH genre broke the glass ceiling they historically have had here (they do well, just not hugely well).

 

I just caught a professor at the uni I work for discussing the movie with one of the employees at the cafeteria, which is pretty telling since this a pretty uptight conservative place.

IW 3-day: €6.8m (x3.01 to €20.5m)

IW 4-day: €7.2m (x2.84 to €20.5m)

 

EG 3-day: €10m

EG 4-day: €12.5m

 

Applying, let's say a x2.7 to the 3-day opening, we have €27.5m. Adding the €2.5m from previews, you have the €30m.

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47 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

Real weekend is more like 358-60 = 298

My bad. I do not why I had asumed the 67m previews.

 

I read somewhere that 358 figure for the whole weekend. Is it confirmed? I guess we will have to wait to actuals. That would imply that both 150m 2nd weekend and 80m 3rd weekend are quite possible.

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1 hour ago, JimiQ said:

Well people are already reporting sellouts happening next weekend so I don't think the drop will be huge. I am expecting something under 60% for 150+M

There's also the matter of a A+ Cinemascore. I can't think of many movies that get that score and see big declines. 

 

Although, to be fair, End Game is pretty much guaranteed to have the biggest drop of all time in absolute dollar amounts. 

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Just now, vafrow said:

There's also the matter of a A+ Cinemascore. I can't think of many movies that get that score and see big declines. 

 

Although, to be fair, End Game is pretty much guaranteed to have the biggest drop of all time in absolute dollar amounts. 

 

It could literally loose over 200M weekend- to weekend and still break the record for the highest ever 2nd weekend gross LOL

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I think people seems very enthusiastic with this OW and starts to say TFA domestic is locked, Avatar WW is locked.

It´s sure it made a unbelievable OW, but it´s not easy at all to beat these two monsters movies.

 

We have to wait some days and start to see dailies drops, because i don´t see any locked at all, demolish these 2 movies will require good legs after this monster begining.

 

I say 825 / 2.7

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, setna said:

I think people seems very enthusiastic with this OW and starts to say TFA domestic is locked, Avatar WW is locked.

It´s sure it made a unbelievable OW, but it´s not easy at all to beat these two monsters movies.

 

We have to wait some days and start to see dailies drops, because i don´t see any locked at all, demolish these 2 movies will require good legs after this monster begining.

 

I say 825 / 2.7

I think that's fair. Though I have it doing 850/2.75... Splitting hairs between our two projections.

Edited by JohnnyGossamer
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Monday Prediction: $31.7m

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Monday Prediction: $31.7m

Are you basing that on Rth 30-32 or something else?

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@baumer is always on the target when it comes to studios underestimating Sunday’s! 

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Some useless facts.

 

USA spent $1.1 per head-population on EndGame OW.

 

UK was around $0.82.

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How did I only just see this Hellboy drop? 🤣 I'm not sure if I've ever seen a -90% drop before..

 

Looking on the bright side, it should have a much better drop next weekend, right? ...r-right?

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Posted (edited)

What was the final update for Sunday? 90 - 93? Meaning GoT may have impacted late night screenings by a million or two. That'll just result in additional spillover to the Monday and discount Tuesday numbers. Thinking 30+ is likely locked today. 

Edited by JohnnyGossamer

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Dom theatrical returns itself will be 460 odd using 850 dom. China returns will be close to 140 using 550 total. So returns of 600 from these 2 markets. Already makes it profitable. OS-China, non-theatrical revenue including merchandizing to come.

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Someone caught up on their BOT reading this morning.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, a2k said:

Using 358 AEG's OW was 6.0x it's previews. AIW's was 6.6x so one can see some front-loading due to unprecedented demand and sequel factor.

 

AIW's -55.5% drop will be very tough to match and gives 159 2nd weekend. Guessing high-140s/ low-150s.

Deadline when contemplating a $300m w/e said it would require 75% capacity TFSS.  This did near $360m - 20% more.

 

Theaters were filled to near capacity.  FSS records were demolished. It didn't slow down at any time during the w/e - it just started to hit capacity.  There wasn't really room for a 20%+ Saturday jump when Friday matinees and late night showings had been so filled. It would have had to have had a $333m FSS to reach the same internal multi as AIW.  

 

In comparison AIW, made $66m more than AOU  had a smaller internal multi  (6.6) than AOU (6.93) and it's legs were stronger. 

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