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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

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5 minutes ago, Robertron said:

Wed-Thu-Fri all essentially flat here (Australia) for AEG - Wednesday was an OD record btw. I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday is just as big. 

 

This is not behaving like a typical film.  

 

 

ya, that was my point. Sat is going to be an amazing number regardless, but I was start to see people get a bit silly with 110, 105 mil sat, which is where you could expect of a 90 mil Friday, but again this movie is not typically.

 

Theaters near me were in complete sellout mode for me today (Friday) no matter the showing time. Most maybe have 2 or 3 more showings for Saturday. So the gains will be from smaller markets that could not sell out daytime on Friday, are larger theaters adding more showings.

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Just now, Ozymandias said:

i'll see it next weekend

 

no fucking way i'm dealing with all that traffic/people/lines in the theater

 

My #1 concern is trying to not throw up the only food that I’ve had today and I guess I’ll worry about seeing Endgame when I’m done with that

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Via BOP

"The studio is “cautiously” projecting a domestic weekend “in the $300 million range.” 

 

The fact that 'cautiously' and '$300 million range' are in the same sentence shows how truly historic and huge this is 😳

 

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1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

God fucking damn it am I gonna be the last person to see this movie

I'm not going to see it in theatres. I feel like the only person in the world who has no interest in it. I am obsessed with its box office performance though. We may not see anything like this again for quite some time. 

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5 minutes ago, MJL said:

Um, did you guys see this nugget from Deadline’s report????  It’s impossible, right???

 

“Industry estimates are already calling Endgame at the highest single day and opening day record of all-time with $140M-$150M. Estimates earlier this morning indicate a weekend take between $315M-$330M. Infinity War had a Saturday decline of 23% or $82.1M and box office analysts believe a similar ease will occur tomorrow

 

So.... 150 * 0.77 = 115.5

 

This can’t be right...

 

Let’s do a 27% drop

 

150 * 0.73 = 109.5

 

So a similar ease brings us to roughly a 110+ Saturday?????  😵

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-fastest-film-to-hit-100m-box-office-1202601937/

 

Someone please tell me I’m wrong because if this is the case, with a 25% drop on Sunday (very conservative) we get:

 

At the same % drop:

 

150 Friday 

115.5 Saturday 

86.6 Sunday

352.1 OW

 

or for a 27% drop from full Friday:

 

150 Friday 

109.5 Saturday 

82.1 Sunday

341.6 OW

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6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just named 2 two random existing MCU directors. The point being that the only directing duo they currently have is Borden and fleck, so their options will be something like:  

have one person direct and be flattened like a pancake 2/3rds through production  

hire a directing duo that’s never been in MCU yet

Boden and Fleck  

some kind of directing team pulled from existing MCU directors, likely based on focal characters and themes of that particular Avengers entry

 

 

Lord & Miller: The Prodigals Return

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There's a certain film's DOM total this may very well eclipse on OW that I can't explicitly mention but the notion of it is James Franco so good. 

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Sometimes the numbers pre release really do tell the story. Some members did great work on the forecasting thread. As the numbers came in, they showed us an OW pointing to 315M, 330M, 350M, yet because these were numbers so hard to conceive, many of us understandably doubted. Kudos to those who didn’t. Lo and behold, it really is happening. OMG, this is a box office run for the ages. One to which we will compare other movies who endeavor reaching lofty heights from here on out. Absolutely unreal. There are no superlatives left! 

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All of this insanity is further proof of how loved Infinity War was.  The casuals that maybe saw it to see what all the fuss was about have probably now caught up and jumped aboard the Endgame train. What a crowning glory for the MCU this madness is. 

 

I’m the biggest SW fan there is, but I’m loving what’s happening. This is what we’re here for....weekends like this. 

 

Never mind running from it. RUN TOWARDS IT!! 

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2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

This film is not crushing records its laughing at them, toying with them

j3QHRfq.gif

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45 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:

I'm trying to stay conservative from couple hours ago 148-153m

 

It's mental

 

:ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod:

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6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's not right way to do it. Better way is to consider jump from pure Friday. IW jumped 20% plus or around $14mn. Since Friday is 90mn, 20% is perhaps too much. I can think of 14mn absolute increase. But considering this film, you never know.

 

 

 

True, the only reason I calculated it as I did is because Deadline specifically called out the drop from OD + previews and not how we usually calculate the Saturday here

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1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

All of this insanity is further proof of how loved Infinity War was.  The casuals that maybe saw it to see what all the fuss was about have probably now caught up and jumped aboard the Endgame train. What a crowning glory for the MCU this madness is. 

 

I’m the biggest SW fan there is, but I’m loving what’s happening. This is what we’re here for....weekends like this. 

 

Never mind running from it. RUN TOWARDS IT!! 

The only downside of this whole thing is it is going to take way way longer than average for the record to go down again now. As in like maybe over a decade if this thing actually laps at 350m for the weekend. 

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Imagine if this had a December release. 1 billion domestic would have likely been locked 

Edited by John Marston
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Just for the sake of it, here's what it will do if it has the exact same Saturday and Sunday numbers as The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi or Infinity War, using that low-end number (148).... so, in another words, the absolute worst case scenario-type deals:

 

With the exact same Saturday and Sunday numbers as The Last Jedi:

148

(-56.8%) 64
(-19.8%) 51.3

263.3

 

With the exact same Saturday and Sunday numbers as The Force Awakens:

148
(-53.9%) 68.3

(-11.3%) 60.6

276.9

 

With the exact same Saturday and Sunday numbers as Infinity War:

148
(-44.5%) 82.1
(-15.7%) 69.2

299.3

 

So, even in the worst case scenario case, the adjusted OW record (which with 2018 prices is 259M from TFA) is comfortably going down. And that worst case scenario would take being a lot more frontloaded than even Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (which saw a 53.4% drop from OD to Saturday, a better drop than even the 2nd worst case scenario here) to effectively exist. Which, considering that DH2's preview-to-OD multiplier was the same as TFA's and EG's is leagues better than TFA's, has about a 0.000000000001% probability of happening.

 

Now, for a realistic set of comparables, the actual internal multiplier comparisons for that low end:

 

With The Force Awakens' internal multiplier:

148

(-42.7%) 84.8

(-11.3%) 75.2

308

 

With The Last Jedi's internal multiplier:

148
(-38.9%) 90.4

(-19.8%) 72.5

310.9

 

With Infinity War's internal multiplier:

148

(-22.8%) 114.3

(-15.7%) 96.4

358.7

 

Considering that its preview-to-OD multiplier is clearly inferior to IW's, I'd say that 358.7 sounds like a stretch for sure :rofl: However, it's also hands down superior to both TLJ and TFA's, so I'd say that 310 is pretty much the floor this weekend. No amount of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao matches can quiet down the storm for that one this time around :ph34r:

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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I vaguely remember a gif from a year or so back using a chase scene from Mad Max with a bunch of users names over the faces of the people driving on the way to IW's OW going crazy anyone remember that? 

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Domestic crown feels likely. If it pulls 340-350 it only needs legs a bit better than IW's to get there. If a film was gonna get to 1 bil domestic this is the one.

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Crazy to think what kind of numbers Ad Astra is gonna pull if a mere Avengers movie can rake in this much dough.

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It feels odd to say, but Avatar record seems more in danger than TFA.

 

10 years. Well done Avatar. Now its time for new sun to rise.

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