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AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

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Can you imagine this movie in December? Smaller opening, sure (or maybe not!), but those December weekdays....my God.

 

Makes you wonder if, going forward, Disney officially realizes Marvel is indeed bigger than Star Wars, and therefor more deserving of that prestigious December slot, and starts scheduling their biggest Marvel movies there and Star Wars back in its classic May slot. Keep the last weekend of April or first weekend of May for a smaller MCU movie and put Star Wars on the 3rd weekend of May (where the prequels and I believe the OT were released).

 

Just spitballing.

Edited by JB33
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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

LMAO your first reference was 2.967. 

 

In 2002, lol.  That was at a time when legs for movies were inherently better.

 

I'm not saying a 3x is impossible, for the record.  But it is worth noting that not every movie with an A+ CinemaScore has gotten above a 3x.  And given the inherent fan rush demand for a property like Avengers, I'd say that a 3x for Endgame is pretty damn unlikely.

Edited by That One Guy
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WOW, just wow. This happens once every long time so enjoy. I can´t believe it's making +$150 on OD, that means a +$90 true friday. It has a great chance at doing over $100 on saturday, something really huge. I think it might dont have much space to go up so be cautious but crazy things are happening. It's certainly doing +$330 on OW, something unreal. It will be frontloaded but i expect a 2.5x multi so a +$800 total domestic is very likely. I don´t expect it to surprass TFA as that movie had incredible good legs for a movie that open so big. 

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Chamber of Secrets, but that movie seems like there may have just been an odd sample or something because it's general WOM didn't seem on par with an A+

And even that was 2.97x, which is pretty much a 3x in my book. 

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10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

A $1b DOM grosser after all these years would literally give my box office ADD a sense of permanent peace and rest I can't even describe. Like I could stop tracking box office after nearly two decades and be ok. 

It’s 2019, I thought we’d be passed using actual disorders as descriptive terms for things that aren’t the disorder?

 

(Also, ADD is outdated terminology)

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

that's just too early. i haven't even done my morning dump at 9:30 no way am i seeing a movie.

The BFI IMAX had a 4am showing, that's dedication. 

11 minutes ago, jaybox said:

It’s pretty much done. Barring  like a 70 percent drop next week due to the crazy burnt off demand this behemoth should blow past force awakens. Competition won’t matter. Also in another thread I said If Endgame beat force awakens total in the US than I would officially say MCU > Star Wars in the States. I’m just about ready to concede but I wait for that 2nd weekend drop just to be extra sure. Lmao. MCU trusted in their characters, developed a crowd and critic pleasing formula, and simply changed the game giving characters that people thought had no chance of being A list worthy 12 years ago. Just for that feat alone, the franchise deserves the reward of being the top gross in every category 

I imagine the competition like John Wick and Pikachu will be able to co-exist just fine with Endgame due to their different demos. It won't be until the end of May that it'll see big drop-off simply due to the likes of Aladdin, Godzilla and Rocketman. 

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8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

In 2002, lol.  That was at a time when legs for movies were inherently better.

 

I'm not saying a 3x is impossible, for the record.  But it is worth noting that not every movie with an A+ CinemaScore has gotten above a 3x.  And given the inherent fan rush demand for a property like Avengers, I'd say that a 3x for Endgame is pretty damn unlikely.

Ok the examples were crazy is my point. The first was from 17 years ago and basically did 3x with 11 year old actors. The next 2 were right rated R. The final 2 were Tyler Perry films one of which was 16% on RT. Let's just say assuming none of the crazy examples it's multiplier is going to be good on top of a massive score.

IE 900 could be the floor for DOM. That's highly unlikely worst case scenario for 350 opening. If it's opening higher I think there is a very strong case 1 billion DOM

Edited by cdsacken
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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

The BFI IMAX had a 4am showing, that's dedication. 

I imagine the competition like John Wick and Pikachu will be able to co-exist just fine with Endgame due to their different demos. It won't be until the end of May that it'll see big drop-off simply due to the likes of Aladdin, Godzilla and Rocketman. 

Even then, it'll benefit from Memorial day and then summer weekdays.

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Should also mention in the "Endgame's a lock to hit 3x with that A+" argument is that the next few weekends are going to be tricky, because from May 4-June 7, each weekend is going to have 3 new wide releases. Granted, the 4th doesn't have anything major, but Pikachu, Aladdin, Godzilla, and Pets will probably get at least two screens for OW, and Dark Phoenix will probably get two as well. Then stuff like John Wick and Rocketman will probably get big auditoriums too, and it's going to be a challenge for it to maintain a lot of screens.

 

A 14-screen theater near me has Endgame playing on 10 screens. It can probably keep all of those next week, but on the 10th, with Pikachu probably getting two screens, and Poms, The Hustle, Long Shot, The Intruder and Ugly Dolls also likely getting a screen, Endgame's probalby going to have its screens cut in half. Maybe one or two of the other movies can share with Endgame, but that's still a lot of lost screens lost.

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1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

Should also mention in the "Endgame's a lock to hit 3x with that A+" argument is that the next few weekends are going to be tricky, because from May 4-June 7, each weekend is going to have 3 new wide releases. Granted, the 4th doesn't have anything major, but Pikachu, Aladdin, Godzilla, and Pets will probably get at least two screens for OW, and Dark Phoenix will probably get two as well. Then stuff like John Wick and Rocketman will probably get big auditoriums too, and it's going to be a challenge for it to maintain a lot of screens.

 

A 14-screen theater near me has Endgame playing on 10 screens. It can probably keep all of those next week, but on the 10th, with Pikachu probably getting two screens, and Poms, The Hustle, Long Shot, The Intruder and Ugly Dolls also likely getting a screen, Endgame's probalby going to have its screens cut in half. Maybe one or two of the other movies can share with Endgame, but that's still a lot of lost screens lost.

You have a point. Sure, EG is going to dwarf these other movies but at the end of the day it still has to share screens so it can't inevitably hog all of the pie.

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So I was able to get back into my local theaters website and get the last 3 3D showings.  Still pretty amazing that Saturday is at 83% capacity for the day.

 

Sat              
               
2D 9:15 81 87   93.10%    
  9:30 154 154   100.00% **SOLD OUT**
  9:40 60 60   100.00% **SOLD OUT**
  10:00 187 209   89.47%    
  10:20 65 85   76.47%    
  10:30 36 42   85.71%    
  10:40 152 152   100.00% **SOLD OUT**
  11:00 189 209   90.43%    
  11:30 51 51   100.00% **SOLD OUT**
  12:05 98 98   100.00% **SOLD OUT**
  12:45 91 98   92.86%    
  1:20 150 154   97.40%    
  1:50 180 209   86.12%    
  2:10 61 90   67.78%    
  2:30 83 98   84.69%    
  2:50 180 209   86.12%    
  3:20 141 154   91.56%    
  3:55 138 154   89.61%    
  4:10 137 152   90.13%    
  4:30 93 98   94.90%    
  5:10 142 152   93.42%    
  5:40 179 209   85.65%    
  6:05 58 87   66.67%    
  6:20 90 98   91.84%    
  6:40 179 209   85.65%    
  7:10 146 154   94.81%    
  7:45 125 154   81.17%    
  8:00 140 152   92.11%    
  8:20 84 98   85.71%    
  9:00 137 152   90.13%    
  9:30 148 209   70.81%    
  9:55 56 85   65.88%    
  10:10 70 98   71.43%    
  10:30 94 209   44.98%    
  11:00 69 154   44.81%    
               
3D 11:40 55 60   91.67%    
  1:00 60 85   70.59%    
  3:40 45 60   75.00%    
  4:50 48 85   56.47%    
  7:30 42 60   70.00%    
  8:40 41 85   48.24%    
               
    4335 5218   83.08%    
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6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Ok the examples were trash is my point. The first was from 17 years ago and basically did 3x with 11 year old actors. The next 2 were right rated R. The final 2 were Tyler Perry films one of which was 16% on RT. Let's just say assuming none of the crazy examples it's multiplier is going to be good on top of a massive score.

 IE 900 could be the floor for DOM.

 

It wasn't about finding perfect comparisons, it was just about the claim that every movie with an A+ CinemaScore has finished with a 3x.  That isn't true.  And those other negatives you mentioned aren't necessarily negatives (the fact that Chamber of Secrets came out 17 years ago probably helped it get better legs; if it came out today, I'd imagine it'd have a 2.7x or lower), while I'd argue that upfront demand is going to be a much greater negative and a bigger hurdle for the movie to overcome in order for it to get insane legs.

 

Right now, I say it gets around a 2.5x multi for an 870M finish or so, which would be insane.  I'd be happy to be wrong, and for it to go higher.

Edited by That One Guy
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In what world is rated R not a negative? Limits the watcher base massively. Also imo comedies with 16% RT scores tend to not have 3x. I agree, in the entire universe there are some examples but I would still least recognize they dont do much to bolster the case. It's like using obscure law references from 1700 in a courtroom in 2019.

Edited by cdsacken
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