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Eric Atreides

Avengers: Endgame Tuesday Thread (4/30): 33.11M (3rd best Tuesday ever, 2nd best non-opening)

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5 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

AndyK told me for a long time Endgame would ‘negatively affect’ the box office for Captain Marvel. Yeah, that wasn’t true at all. 

I wonder what logic led him to believe that...

 

1. People who missed CM on release but got caught up in the Endgame hype going to check it out before endgame

2. The millions of people doing MCU rewatches in prep for Endgame... and had to go back to the theater to rewatch CM. 

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14 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I suppose a small niche of nerds might be correct, given their box office, but I would argue the majority of people who saw the movies liked them. Even if we go by the generally-accepted metrics or RT, IMDB voting, audience reactions... They were well-liked, even if not adored (though there are loads of people who DO adore them - myself included, even though I never once picked up a Hellboy comic).

 

I honestly think with a third movie, Del Toro would have delivered one of the best, most consistent superhero trilogies ever. 

well I often let my opinion of the first two movies cloud my judgement because I dislike the first one and hated the second Hellboy almost as much as I hated Halloween 2 from Rob zombie LOL

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Just now, baumer said:

well I often let my opinion of the first two movies cloud my judgement because I dislike the first one and hated the second Hellboy almost as much as I hated Halloween 2 from Rob zombie LOL

Fair enough. It's difficult to stay objective with regards to movies that we feel strongly about (one way or another). :) 

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1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

before LK hits theaters

 

the top 3 WW will be

1. EG

2. CM

3. Spiderman far from home 

 

 

 

You mean of 2019?

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1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah, I definitely found Titanic's run more impressive than Avatar's. Avatar rode the waves of Titanic's success and also had a premise that was more marketable to global audiences. A period drama that's half romance and interpersonal relationships grossing nearly 2 billion in 1997 is... literally insane. 

Dat 9th week alone.... 

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28 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

The new Hellboy is going to make less total than the original Hellboy’s OW unadjusted.  Del Toro is also fresh off his Oscar win.

Del Toro's budget likely would've been significantly bigger, and I don't think any version of Hellboy is gonna set the box office on fire.

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5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

before LK hits theaters

 

the top 3 WW will be

1. EG

2. CM

3. Spiderman far from home 

 

 

 

Thus tacking yet another BV property on the list. Add in Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Episode 9... Hell, maybe even Artemis Fowl...

 

How far down the final top 2019 list will we have to go for the first non-Disney movie? 

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My expectations for Wednesday:

 

With TA's drop (-23%): 25.4M

With IW's drop (-27.6%): 23.9M

With IW's % of OW: 23.5M

With TA's % of OW: 23.4M

 

I'm going to go ahead and predict 23.5M.  Wednesday was the first day that the Avengers had a better drop than IW, but it wasn't until Friday that it overtook IW as a % of OW.  My guess this'll hang with both of these movies until Friday, which is the day that will separate the boys from the men.

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54 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Endgame boost is over for Cap Marvel 

:Venom:

It's behaving like BP did on the same week that AIW opened. 

 

If it follows BP drops: 

 

M: -65.7%

T: +11.2%

W: -26.8% => $670,285

T: +1.1% => $677,658

F: +161.7% => $1,773,430 

S: +63.0% => $2,890,690

S: -46.1% => $1,558,081

 

9th weekend: 6,222,201 - 25.14% 

 

To stay in the safe zone: 

 

F: +105.6% => $1,393,264

S:  +55.5% => $2,166,525

S:  -37.8% => $1,347,578

 

9th weekend: $4,907,367 - 40.96%

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Just now, Sue Denim said:

I'm still thinking with the 33.1 actual number:

 

Wed  23.8  (-28%)

Thu  22.2  (-7%)

 

Fri  42.12 (+90%)

Sat 65.29 (+50%)

Sun 48.97 (-25%)

 

2nd Weekend:  156.4 (-56%)

Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good but I'm still hoping for a better Friday increase. 103-105% would be awesome!

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26 minutes ago, BiffMan said:

Thus tacking yet another BV property on the list. Add in Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Episode 9... Hell, maybe even Artemis Fowl...

 

How far down the final top 2019 list will we have to go for the first non-Disney movie? 

Ummm...probably Spider-Man: Far From Home. It may be MCU but it’s still a Sony release.

 

If not that, my guess is wherever Jumanji 3 or Secret Life of Pets 2 ends up. Maaaaaybe Hobbs & Shaw. Or maybe BOT ends up right and Pika goes gangbusters. Disney is still most likely not going to be able to secure any more than the top 6, maximum. And Toy Story 4 could still be topped by something else.

Edited by TServo2049
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Just now, JB33 said:

Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good but I'm still hoping for a better Friday increase. 103-105% would be awesome!

That would be great.  I'm erring on the low side for this weekend.  I think any number above 150 million for a second weekend would be amazing!!

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Been thinking about its chances of overtaking TFA.

 

So it basically got a 110 million lead off OW. Through Monday and Tuesday it has given back 7-8 million, tomorrow if it goes like people think and is 23m or so it will give back 15m (TFA actually increased Tuesday to wed), but Thursday wont be as bad because it was Cmas eve for TFA and it dropped hard, either way it looks like it gives back 30 million during weekdays. 

 

So and 80 million lead. Think the key this weekend is to just not lose ground on TFA. TFA did 150m I think EG can do that, and maybe a bit better, but lets just say they do about the same and 80 mil lead stays intact. 

 

We are really going to bleed next week though. TFA did 31, 29, 28, 23 m-th 2nd week... I see losing 50-60 million, but still hold the lead by 20-30 mil. 

 

3rd weekend TFA did 90m, I think EG will be at worst 75m, go do in the mid 80s. So the lead could be just 5 mil up to 20 mil depending. 

 

Now after 3rd weekend TFA comes back to earth for dailies as hit the wasteland of January, but it still had solid holds week to week and got an MLK bump. Then died after the 1st week in Feb.

 

Now with endgame. It also gets a big holiday boost at the 1 month mark in Memorial day, but it will get its late leg days in June. 

 

The scenario I see is EG and TFA are basically tied with EG having a slight advantage at the end of weekend 3. TFA overtaking EG during 3rd weekdays and 4th weekend and building a 10-15 million lead but EG will play solidly deep into the summer and pass it back up in late June early July and settle on about 950 mil domestic. 

 

It really rides on this 2nd weekend. To me as long as it does not lose ground this weekend to TFA it has a chance to hold on and take the Dom crown. 

 

So 150 million gives it a chance, something like a 165 gives us a lock and a shot at 1 billy. 

Edited by Birdo Mandingo
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21 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

FWIW, my AMC with the exception of a few 3D showtimes looks like it’s at or nearly on par with yesterday (albeit with slightly fewer shows than yesterday).

We also have to factor in discount Tuesday prices yesterday. 

For instance, the IMAX at Scotiabank Toronto theatre sold about 1200 tickets at discount prices yesterday. It's going to sell close to that number of tickets again today at regular price, somewhat making up for the drop in attendance of regular shows.

 

Attendance can drop 35% today and gross only drop about 25% for that reason. 

I'm very interested to see where the numbers end up. 

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