Avengers: Endgame Tuesday Thread (4/30): 33.11M (3rd best Tuesday ever, 2nd best non-opening)

[FilmBuff]

6 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Been thinking about its chances of overtaking TFA.

 

So it basically got a 110 million lead off OW. Through Monday and Tuesday it has given back 7-8 million, tomorrow if it goes like people think and is 23m or so it will give back 15m (TFA actually increased Tuesday to wed), but Thursday wont be as bad because it was Cmas eve for TFA and it dropped hard, either way it looks like it gives back 30 million during weekdays. 

 

So and 80 million lead. Think the key this weekend is to just not lose ground on TFA. TFA did 150m I think EG can do that, and maybe a bit better, but lets just say they do about the same and 80 mil lead stays intact. 

 

We are really going to bleed next week though. TFA did 31, 29, 28, 23 m-th 2nd week... I see losing 50-60 million, but still hold the lead by 20-30 mil. 

 

3rd weekend TFA did 90m, I think EG will be at worst 75m, go do in the mid 80s. So the lead could be just 5 mil up to 20 mil depending. 

 

Now after 3rd weekend TFA comes back to earth for dailies as hit the wasteland of January, but it still had solid holds week to week and got an MLK bump. Then died after the 1st week in Feb.

 

Now with endgame. It also gets a big holiday boost at the 1 month mark in Memorial day, but it will get its late leg days in June. 

 

The scenario I see is EG and TFA are basically tied with EG having a slight advantage at the end of weekend 3. TFA overtaking EG during 3rd weekdays and 4th weekend and building a 10-15 million lead but EG will play solidly deep into the summer and pass it back up in late June early July and settle on about 950 mil domestic. 

 

It really rides on this 2nd weekend. To me as long as it does not lose ground this weekend to TFA it has a chance to hold on and take the Dom crown. 

 

So 150 million gives it a chance, something like a 165 gives us a lock and a shot at 1 billy. 

 

Jmo, Avengers Endgame restores that big lead over TFA. It’s doing 170-180 mil 2nd weekend gaining the 30 mil lead throughout the week that it lost.

[Aurora]

33M. So That's a 10% decrease from Monday. For comparison on their first Wednesday, Avengers fell 23%, while Ultron and Infinity War were around 28%.

 

Just taking a random guess, I'm leaning towards the Wednesday drop being closer to the latter two movies then Avengers 1. But who knows.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Aurora

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Aurora said:

33M? That's a 10% decrease from Monday. For comparison, Avengers fell 23%, while Ultron and Infinity War were around 28%.

 

Just taking a random guess, I'm leaning towards the Wednesday drop being closer to the latter two movies then Avengers 1.

Yeah, 28% is the number I'm going with. That works out to about $23.8M for Wednesday.

[ViewerAnon]

EDIT

Edited May 1, 2019 by ViewerAnon

[JB33]

Just now, ViewerAnon said:

 

INFINITY WAR fell 5.5%.

I think he was looking ahead to the Wednesday drop. Maybe not, but that's what I got from it.

[Caveman Sam]

20 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Been thinking about its chances of overtaking TFA.

 

So it basically got a 110 million lead off OW. Through Monday and Tuesday it has given back 7-8 million, tomorrow if it goes like people think and is 23m or so it will give back 15m (TFA actually increased Tuesday to wed), but Thursday wont be as bad because it was Cmas eve for TFA and it dropped hard, either way it looks like it gives back 30 million during weekdays. 

 

So and 80 million lead. Think the key this weekend is to just not lose ground on TFA. TFA did 150m I think EG can do that, and maybe a bit better, but lets just say they do about the same and 80 mil lead stays intact. 

 

We are really going to bleed next week though. TFA did 31, 29, 28, 23 m-th 2nd week... I see losing 50-60 million, but still hold the lead by 20-30 mil. 

 

3rd weekend TFA did 90m, I think EG will be at worst 75m, go do in the mid 80s. So the lead could be just 5 mil up to 20 mil depending. 

 

Now after 3rd weekend TFA comes back to earth for dailies as hit the wasteland of January, but it still had solid holds week to week and got an MLK bump. Then died after the 1st week in Feb.

 

Now with endgame. It also gets a big holiday boost at the 1 month mark in Memorial day, but it will get its late leg days in June. 

 

The scenario I see is EG and TFA are basically tied with EG having a slight advantage at the end of weekend 3. TFA overtaking EG during 3rd weekdays and 4th weekend and building a 10-15 million lead but EG will play solidly deep into the summer and pass it back up in late June early July and settle on about 950 mil domestic. 

 

It really rides on this 2nd weekend. To me as long as it does not lose ground this weekend to TFA it has a chance to hold on and take the Dom crown. 

 

So 150 million gives it a chance, something like a 165 gives us a lock and a shot at 1 billy. 

Great post, solid reasoning. I've been thinking along the same lines myself. And yes, I agree, this next weekend and the following weekdays are key. EG needs at least a $20M lead after the third weekend or things will become difficult.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Basically it needs to do 1.37x IW's dailies from now on to catch TFA, 1.54x for the billion. So the target for today is 23.29 (likely) for the former and 26.18 (difficult) for the latter.

[Birdo Mandingo]

31 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

 

Jmo, Avengers Endgame restores that big lead over TFA. It’s doing 170-180 mil 2nd weekend gaining the 30 mil lead throughout the week that it lost.

I hope so. If this happens it would have a pretty good shot a 1 billion, like 60-65% chance. 

 

I don't see it, or at least not about to get my hopes up. I like 150 as the target back that would be about a 50% drop from last true weekend numbers. 

 

If it does say 180, and goes back to a 110 lead, that would also indicate the 2nd week bleed would be like 40 million instead of up to 60 million. So it would go into 3rd weekend still up 70m. Like I said before I essentially see them playing the same after 3rd weekend (with TFA being a bit stronger short term, but EG doing better longterm). But it would give EGs final total about 70-80 million above TFA which of course gets us to 1 billion with some change to spare. 

[langer]

People need to remember that TFA didn't have a 50M$+ opener against it until Deadpool opened on its 9th weekend.  Endgame should be facing 50M+$ openers starting on its 3rd weekend for the rest of the summer (DP, John Wick maybe, Aladdin, Godzilla, Secret Life of Pets/Dark Phoenix to an extent, MIB/TS4).  

 

Theater owners will face though choices regarding how many screens they can devote to an "aging" Endgame.  

 

It will be a fun ride to see how that turns out.  

[AndyK]

Only 3rd best again

 

This is not acceptable, sort your shit out America !

[SteveJaros]

3 hours ago, TServo2049 said:

Actually, SW’s original run was $221.3 million. BOM includes the 1978, 1979 and 1981 re-releases in their “first-run” total for reasons unknown.

 

The 1978 re-release (which was technically an extension because it began the day after the film was “withdrawn” from release) brought the total up to $265.1 million.

 

Great information. Based on that, I'd say the fairest accounting of the its "original theatrical run" is the $265m figure.

 

Using that number, we're talking an equivalence of around $1.1B DOM for Avengers. 

[SpiderByte]

....but it'll beat Avatar WW rite

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

....but it'll beat Avatar WW rite

Not locked, but it's looking more and more likely each day.

[FlashMaster659]

Not sure if this has been posted yet

 

 

[TServo2049]

1 hour ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Great information. Based on that, I'd say the fairest accounting of the its "original theatrical run" is the $265m figure.

 

Using that number, we're talking an equivalence of around $1.1B DOM for Avengers. 

Yes, adjusting the 221.3m portion at 1977 prices and the 48.3m portion at 1978 prices gets SW/ANH to $1.06B adjusted, just below the original runs of Titanic and E.T., then TFA would probably be fourth. Re-releases had to have contributed to the rest in the top 10, but as established, the info of how much was made in the first-run and how much in re-release (or even when all the re-releases occurred) is not documented well.

 

I just realized there’s a book out there called Coming Back to a Theater Near You detailing the history of Hollywood re-releases up to 2014. I may try to find that in case it has any interesting info (though again, I expect to find more rental numbers than gross numbers).

Edited May 1, 2019 by TServo2049

[sfran43]

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 5	% Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Endgame	Disney / Marvel	$152,600,000	$623,750,000	-57%
Uglydolls	STX	$11,000,000	$11,000,000	NEW
The Intruder	Sony / Screen Gems	$10,800,000	$10,800,000	NEW
Long Shot	Lionsgate / Summit	$10,000,000	$10,000,000	NEW
Captain Marvel	Disney / Marvel	$5,300,000	$421,800,000	-36%
The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros. / New Line	$4,600,000	$49,300,000	-43%
Breakthrough	Fox	$4,200,000	$33,500,000	-38%
Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$3,400,000	$136,300,000	-39%
Dumbo	Disney	$2,000,000	$110,300,000	-43%
Little	Universal	$1,900,000	$39,000,000	-45%

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Avengers: Endgame           Disney / Marvel           $152,600,000          $623,750,000

 

My club is over IM3 OW. My head says $160m though.

 

[TServo2049]

-57%

 

...

 

They know.

Edited May 2, 2019 by TServo2049

[XXR vs XXR]

@RtheEnd We're ready for a riddle, wrapped in an enigma, wrapped in mystery....

[ChipDerby]

I'd guess an almost exact 55% drop this weekend.

 

For Wednesday, I'd say $24.6 mil