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Avengers: Endgame Wednesday Thread: 25.25M

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So, for me the only surprise is about how long it took till she announces she will go (see 4 years contract) with former FOX (micromanaging and in question for other details in my POV too) Tom Rothman as the new(-ish) boss (since Feb 2015)

Intersting, no critical word to be found at his english Wiki entry :ph34r: , not even why he does not work at FOX anymore.

 

Wondering what that will mean for the MCU, as then her being responsible at Sony for the Marvel movies was a condition for certain details.

 

EXCLUSIVE: Ending a three decade run at Sony Pictures, Amy Pascal is moving her Pascal Pictures into a first look deal with Universal Pictures

https://deadline.com/2019/05/amy-pascal-universal-pictures-deal-30-year-sony-run-ends-donna-langley-1202605252/

 

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34 minutes ago, Sam said:

Base off of a 25M Wed

 

Follow IW from Thu thru FSS

22.6 Thu (-8.6%)

45.86 Fri (+102.9%)

68.05 Sat (+48.4%)

53.42 Sun (-21.5%)

>>2nd weekend total: 167.33M (-53.14%) Cume: 642M

 

Following TA

22.75 Thu (-9%)

53.65 Fri (+135.8%)

78.75 Sat (+46.8%)

56.78 Sun (-27.9%)

>>2nd weekend total: 189.18M (-47%) Cume: 664M

 

And lastly, following Ultron (which would give it the best figures, ironically) 

22.88 Thu (-8.5%)

56.39 Fri (+146.5%)

89.88 Sat (+59.4%)

60.22 Sun (-33%)

>>2nd weekend total: 206.5M (-42.2%) Cume: 681.5M

 

Considering how big weekdays have been with so much demand already burned off, I think we can safely throw the Ultron projections out the window. TA projections too most likely. 

 

I think following IW will be close to the high end target for EG.

 

All 3 comparisons point to 22M+ as the target to hit for Thu number though.

i disagree (except for the thursday number) , but we will see

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Very strong Wednesday! I was expecting $22-$23 million. I'm thinking Endgame will be at $640 million domestic by the end of the second weekend. I originally predicted Endgame would be at an even $600 million by that time. Endgame keeps beating my predictions. I think this movie is the one to do $1 billion domestic or within $20 million of that. 

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Something I feel might prove to be a logistical barrier to overcome for an MCU movie to hit 900+ is lack of multi-generational appeal compared to Star Wars. People from 5 to 80 were excited about a sequel to Return Of The Jedi. Does Endgame carry that kind of broad appeal? It's a sequel to a 22 movie franchise that started a decade ago. Obviously Marvel Comics in general does have older fans, but nowhere near to the extent as Star Wars.

 

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

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Once again, awesome number. And still any sign of frontloadness. Around 640M after 2nd weekend is kind of assured at this point.

Think about this: TFA will barely reduce the gap with EG despite the incredible Holiday legs it had.

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My 2nd weekend (FSS) projection for Endgame

 

Domestic: $172mn ($647mn)

Overseas: $205mn ($995mn)

China: $90mn ($605mn)

 

Worldwide: $467mn ($2247mn)

http://bit.ly/EGOverseas

 

Also in "EG Projection" sheet, you can check my lifetime projection for Endgame.

 

Note: The second weekend that Disney will report, will include Russia Mon-Sun and countries with weekend starting from Wednesday or Thursday, like France, Australia, Gulf, etc. So Disney number may cross $500mn.

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1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

So, for me the only surprise is about how long it took till she announces she will go (see 4 years contract) with former FOX (micromanaging and in question for other details in my POV too) Tom Rothman as the new(-ish) boss (since Feb 2015)

Intersting, no critical word to be found at his english Wiki entry :ph34r: , not even why he does not work at FOX anymore.

 

Wondering what that will mean for the MCU, as then her being responsible at Sony for the Marvel movies was a condition for certain details.

 

EXCLUSIVE: Ending a three decade run at Sony Pictures, Amy Pascal is moving her Pascal Pictures into a first look deal with Universal Pictures

https://deadline.com/2019/05/amy-pascal-universal-pictures-deal-30-year-sony-run-ends-donna-langley-1202605252/

 

Quote

In Pascal’s most recent iteration as Sony-based producer, her credits include the Oscar-winning Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, the Oscar nominated The Post and Molly’s Game, as well as blockbusters Venom and Spider-Man: Homecoming. Upcoming is Spider-Man: Far From Home and the Greta Gerwig-directed Little Women, which opens Christmas Day with a cast that includes Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan and Meryl Streep. Pascal will continue to produce the sequels and is partnered with Phil Lord & Chris Miller on the Spider-Verse universe spinoff for TV, and an arsenal of projects she either acquired directly with Sony money or her discretionary fund.

 

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With the domestic numbers looking like they're going to fall between $850M and $1B, barring it really taking off, could we be looking at the narrowest race for domestic box office that we've ever seen.

 

Any time the domestic record has fallen, its been by a significant margin (greater than 10%). When the previous record holders actually took the crown, they were still at the top of the box office. 

 

There's also never been, as far as I can tell, a movie that gets to within 10% of the domestic champ that doesn't take the box office crown. 

 

Now, all that said, movies that do this well never seem to follow a script, so its still early, but, it seems like it's going to be an interesting run no matter what at this point. 

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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I know, I read that too 😉 it was about her leaving ~ officially still, and me being a bit surprised it took her as long. 

Better said, as the preparations for that should have started way earlier, maybe the surprise is mostly how long it took to announce it.

And the impact on the MCU - the separation should have an impact on the long run in the ~ discussions behind the scene, if she is not there any-more in a more official way/status, a more loose connection should lessen her say there.

Some details might need years to become clear, some faster, especially if details like that are known, hence why it might be interesting to observe the next some years very closely

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5 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

2.2B after weekend 2 would basically guarantee an Avatar defeat, no?

 

I have no doubt Endgame will take the crown both DOM and WW. But OS crown should still be for Avatar.

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Just now, stripe said:

 

I have no doubt Endgame will take the crown both DOM and WW. But OS crown should still be for Avatar.

with china i doubt it endgame can pass avatar overseas with 1400 and 650 from china

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19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

With the domestic numbers looking like they're going to fall between $850M and $1B, barring it really taking off, could we be looking at the narrowest race for domestic box office that we've ever seen.

 

Any time the domestic record has fallen, its been by a significant margin (greater than 10%). When the previous record holders actually took the crown, they were still at the top of the box office. 

 

There's also never been, as far as I can tell, a movie that gets to within 10% of the domestic champ that doesn't take the box office crown. 

 

Now, all that said, movies that do this well never seem to follow a script, so its still early, but, it seems like it's going to be an interesting run no matter what at this point. 

Jurassic Park finished just 2m under E.T.'s first-run record gross.

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17 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Jurassic Park finished just 2m under E.T.'s first-run record gross.

I was going off the BOM charts based on dates in time. I'm assuming the ET re-releases were included at that time, which still kept it at outside 10%.

 

I hadn't realized JP got so close at the time. That's a movie that I would have liked to have seen had the domestic champ crown for a bit. 

 

If you are including re-releases though, it does feel like this may be the closest race we'll see for the domestic title. 

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1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

2.2B after weekend 2 would basically guarantee an Avatar defeat, no?

Yes. After the 2nd weekend Infinity War was at 1.167 without China. Add 300 million from China that it did through the first 2 weekends later and thats 1.467 billion. It added another 600 million globally from there and you beat Avatar. Everything is outpacing IW and the legs will most likely equal or be better. In this case the US only added 225 million. It's an absolute lock it adds at least that much and to be frank it's almost impossible it only adds 225million. Probably a lot more like 300.

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Thur drops all between 8.5 and 9%

 

So Wed at $25 + Thur at $22.25 with a 9% drop for a $474.5 running total

 

AIW 102.9% Friday with a 3.649 w/e multi or 7.4x Thur
Avengers: 135.8% Friday with a 3.52 w/e multi or 8.316x Thur
AOU = 146.5% Friday with a 3.66 w/e multi  or 9.026 Thur

 

AEG 2nd w/e with AIW ($166.5m) Avengers ($187.11) & AOU ($202.5m)


AIW did $225.7m more after it's 2nd w/e (1.966 x $114.77m) to $678.8m
AOU did $145.6m more after it's 2nd w/e (1.872 x $77.75m) to $459m
Avengers did $250.29m more after it's 2nd w/e (2.43 x $103.05m) to $623.357m

 

Using the lowest W/E of $166.5m from other Avengers comps

 

AEG with post 2nd w/e AIW multis
$474.5m + $166.5m =  $641m +
(166.5 x 1.966) = $327.34m
= $968.339

 

Using the highest post 2nd w/e multi (Avengers) it's $641+ (166.5 x 2.43x) 404.595 = $1,045.6m

Using the lowest post 2nd w/e multi (AOU) it's $641m + (166.5 x1.872) $311.688 = $951.69m

 

Now, using the high end comps - $202.5m (AOU w/e) x Avengers (2.43x post 2nd w/e multi) = $492.075 + $474.5m + $202.5m = $1.169B

 

Yeah that seems reasonable :lol:

 

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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