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Avengers: Endgame Wednesday Thread: 25.25M

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Pessimistic Scenario
Thursday: $21m
2nd Weekend: $150m
M-Th: $40m
3rd Weekend: $75m

17-Day Total: $738m

 

Realistic Scenario 
Thursday: $22.5m
2nd Weekend: $162m
M-Th: $47m
3rd Weekend: $85m

17-Day Total: $768m

Optimistic Scenario
Thursday: $23.5m
2nd Weekend: $175m

M-Th: $55m
3rd Weekend: $96m
17-Day Total: $802m

 

I will take first 2 from Optimistic and next 2 from Realistic. 

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5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Pessimistic Scenario

 

17-Day Total: $738m

 


 

 

Can we all just ... like ... think about this pairing for a bit?

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2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Can we all just ... like ... think about this pairing for a bit?

Yup this is guaranteed to be Avatar dom pretty much. Who would have thought we could make that statement so early.

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9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Every film except The Avengers, which crossed $600mn, sequel dropped to 63-67%. Well there are only two I am talking; TFA and JW. Age of Ultron dropped to 73% and BP 2 is most certainly joining the sequels club.

 

@IronJimbo $550mn incoming. A2. 😛😛

All sequels to bad films and were bad films themselves. A2 will be revolutionary like every Jim film.

Edited by IronJimbo
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Here's my realistically optimistic scenario:

 

Wednesday: 25.1M

Thursday: 23M (-8.5%)

Friday: 48.3M (+110%)

Saturday: 71.5M (+48%)

Sunday: 57.2M (-20%)

Weekend total: 177M (-50.4%)

 

Edited by IceFire9yt
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3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

All sequels to bad films and were bad films themselves. A2 will be revolutionary like every Jim film.

1*dfvXx0k3TufQTgKXmKQKDA.png

 

I think youre still pretty angry so a bit of a road is still ahead for you :)

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4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

All sequels to bad films and were bad films themselves. A2 will be revolutionary like every Jim film.

That’s just bait, won’t address it directly.     

 

However, I doubt that the 2,3,4 year gap sequels are really a great guide for how an 11 year gap sequel will perform.       

 

I suspect A2 will mostly play on it’s own merits, which could be good or bad depending on whether Cameron strikes lightning in a bottle thrice.

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I looked through the highest days on BOM.

And Disney really dominates.

Friday: Endgame, TFA, IW, TLJ the only OD above 100m. On 6 Avengers and on 9 and on 10 is the Od of BP.

Though I think the most interesting dominance is definitely Saturday:

Endgame, Infinity War, Jurassic World, Avengers, TFA etc.

1,2 and 4-14 are Disney movies! Only JW is a non-Disney film

And the highest Saturday outside of Disney (Marvel (8x), Star Wars (3x), BatB, Incredibles 1) is the bloody first Saturday of Catching Fire🤣🤣🤣🤣

And with Endgame Disney will have all but one of the top 15. With TLK and IX still on the horizon, who both should do more than 53m on their First Saturday, it would be 1,2 and 4-17 being Disney. And then Frozen II changing to a Friday Opening maybe has a tiny chance at 53m.

If Spider-Man would open on a Friday, I would say it has a chance but with a Tuesday opening never, ever.

I honestly don't think that a non-Disney movie will be able to have a Saturday above 52.62m during this year, I think Pika Pika, Secret life of Pets, It2, Jumanji? are the only ones to have a shot at above 40m.

Sunday Disney is 1-3, 4-10, 12, 13, 15 with Jurassic World, Dark Knight and Deadpool being the only non-Disney.

On Monday it's 1-5 Disney, 7, 10, 11, 13, 15 (Spider-Man 2, Indiana Jones, Jurassic World, Dark Knight and Shrek 2)

On Tuesday it's 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9-11, 14, 15 (with 2 and 5 being OD and on 8 Jurassic World, 12 and 13 are Aquaman, Dark Knight) for non-OD it would be 1-5, 7-9, 12, 13 (with Jurassic World 2 in #15)

Wednesday is only OD, but TFA in 6 and 12 and Transformers Second Day in #2.

For Thursday it's similar, with only TFA in 6, 11 and TLJ in 14 not being OD or 2nd day (5, 8-10, 12, 13) and Transformers 3-day in #15.

 

So Disney really dominates.

But I am surprised that it's Saturday where they dominate to that extent.

Due to the low number of pre-Friday starts, it doesn't dominate the non-OD Thursday list as 2nd compared to 7th is a difference.

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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