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Avengers: Endgame Thursday Thread: DHD 21.7M

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2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Easily in play with 160

Yeah   

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

175 doesn't lock up 937+ either.

Well, “lock” is a dangerous phrase, but... it just about would. 

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4 hours ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

I hope if Endgame passes TFA it either does it past the adjusted number on BOM or doesn’t pass it at all.

 

I can already hear the constant complaints that Endgame “didn’t really” beat TFA if it hits something like 940

I really don't understand the "adjusted" argument. In this day and age movies keep breaking IMAX, 3D, 4D, whatever premium format records and despite some reports claiming that "3D is dead", many big blockbuster movies can make around half (or more) of their opening weekend from 3D/IMAX/3D IMAX/whatever premium formats alone. So unless movie theatres or studio CEOs start telling us exactly how much tickets were sold, I normally ignore the adjusted argument.

 

Anyways, if it ends up with a 21.5-22M Thursday, I can see around a 100% increase today, then a 50% increase on Saturday and a drop of 20-25% on Sunday for around a 160M finish.

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14 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Beating Avatar WW is still in play but unless we get a 170+ weekend I can't see it beating TFA DOM.

As explained before, it simply needs IW legs to beat TFA. A 55% drop like IW would give it 160m this weekend.

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There is a potential scenario that I don't see anyone mentioning that could get A:EG past Avatar.

 

Avatar and Titanic both remained in theaters for 40+ weeks, and I don't see people talking about the same possibility for A:EG.  I can imagine it coming up short by 150-250 million by the time we expect it to close, and then multiplexes seeing enough demand to just leave a theater or two playing it through Christmas, with it bringing in a consistent 5-10 million a week.  For that matter, I can envision a scenario where theaters offer a double feature of A:IW and A:EG twice every Saturday and Sunday for the next 6 months.

 

I don't think this is likely to happen, but I also don't think it's impossible.  I'm seeing a fair number of people talking about having seen it 5, 6, 7 times already.  If it has that sort of Titanic/Avatar repeat viewing appeal, that ridiculously long tail doesn't seem out of the question. 

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10 minutes ago, andrewgr said:

There is a potential scenario that I don't see anyone mentioning that could get A:EG past Avatar.

 

Avatar and Titanic both remained in theaters for 40+ weeks, and I don't see people talking about the same possibility for A:EG.  I can imagine it coming up short by 150-250 million by the time we expect it to close, and then multiplexes seeing enough demand to just leave a theater or two playing it through Christmas, with it bringing in a consistent 5-10 million a week.  For that matter, I can envision a scenario where theaters offer a double feature of A:IW and A:EG twice every Saturday and Sunday for the next 6 months.

 

I don't think this is likely to happen, but I also don't think it's impossible.  I'm seeing a fair number of people talking about having seen it 5, 6, 7 times already.  If it has that sort of Titanic/Avatar repeat viewing appeal, that ridiculously long tail doesn't seem out of the question. 

As soon as it comes out on blu ray and digital, the legs will collapse.

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13 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I enjoyed Long Shot but I'm very tired of a frumpy loser guy dates hot and accomplished woman movies at this point.

As a frumpy loser guy I'm fine with it. 

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36 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Beating Avatar WW is still in play but unless we get a 170+ weekend I can't see it beating TFA DOM.

 

Beating Avatar is locked.

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23 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I enjoyed Long Shot but I'm very tired of a frumpy loser guy dates hot and accomplished woman movies at this point.

 

Name one other one. 

 

and that's the whole point of the movie is that it's called long shot. It's supposed to be a pretty woman take off but in reverse.

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4 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Why do you guys keep discussing AEG vs Avatar or TFA throughout the whole week? it's getting bit tiresome. 

Because it's Box office forum for one thing and TFA and Avatar are 1 domestic and WW respectively.. Endgame has chance to pass both and be 1 domestic as well as WW... So talking about numbers is what we do in box office forum and only those 2 movies are compared is the reason.... 

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13 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Why do you guys keep discussing AEG vs Avatar or TFA throughout the whole week? it's getting bit tiresome. 

Cause everything else is making $4 combined.

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8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Name one other one. 

 

and that's the whole point of the movie is that it's called long shot. It's supposed to be a pretty woman take off but in reverse.

Every Seth Rogen or Jonah Hill movie.

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