Avengers: Endgame Thursday Thread: DHD 21.7M

[FilmBuff]

The fact we’re even talking about Endgame approaching TFA is madness. Endgame approaching 900 million is crazy to me. 250 million more than Infinity War, 200 mil more than BP, 300 million more than first Avengers. I thought AIW was the cap box office wise . I didn’t see it having the possibility to gross 200 million more. 

 

Edit: Can’t type today.

 

Edited May 3, 2019 by FilmBuff

[setna]

40 minutes ago, baumer said:

Just throwing this out to illustrate how difficult it will be for EG to pass TFA domestic.

 

TFA's second Thursday (22.9)was bigger than EG's first (21.5).  And that was NYE.  A night where the numbers are depressed a little.  I don't think EG will have enough juice to get the domestic record.  I think the WW record is toast, quite easily actually.  But domestic I think TFA holds onto it.  The holiday run it had was just insane.

 

I think the hardest record to beat from TFA is it´s second wednesday at 28 million. I think this will last at least 10 years more, absolutely from another world!!!

Edited May 3, 2019 by setna

[Legion Again]

It’s really not 50/50 as of now. If Endgame has a big weekend drop it will be 50/50 then.  

[IceFire9yt]

I'm just looking at it in terms of multiplier.  If it can hold as well or better than Infinity War this weekend, then its on track to beat TFA.  IW's 2nd weekend drop was 55.5%, which would translate into a 159M 2nd weekend.  If its at like 160M, then this could very well be a nailbiter.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It’s really not 50/50 as of now. If Endgame has a big weekend drop it will be 50/50 then.  

agreed but i want to be cautious

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, baumer said:

Just throwing this out to illustrate how difficult it will be for EG to pass TFA domestic.

 

TFA's second Thursday (22.9)was bigger than EG's first (21.5).  And that was NYE.  A night where the numbers are depressed a little.  I don't think EG will have enough juice to get the domestic record.  I think the WW record is toast, quite easily actually.  But domestic I think TFA holds onto it.  The holiday run it had was just insane.

I think, it is know and clear that TFA will have bigger weekdays for first two weeks and then EG will start its complete lead over dailies.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, setna said:

 

I think the hardest record to beat from TFA is it´s second wednesday at 28 million. I think this will last at least 10 years more, absolutely from another world!!!

Or just another big film on Christmas. Wait Avatar sequels are coming. 

 

ffs Marry Poppins Returns did 10mn on 27th December (1st Thursday) but point being the film didn't even gross 200mn domestically.

 

Spiderverse did ~6mn on 2nd Thursday, a film opening just 35mn 1st weekend. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[cdsacken]

51 minutes ago, john2000 said:

right ? you meant ?

Indeed yes.

[cdsacken]

20 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yeah, TFA's second set of weekdays was about $112m, just 5m less than Endgame's first.  That and the $90m second weekend are the real hurdles.  

 

Endgame is still about $83m ahead of TFA if that 21.4m number holds.  It would def need a really great weekend($170m+) to help alleviate the disparity for the following week.  Memorial Day won't help either, because it's the same weekend TFA had MLK!  

 

We shall see, but the path forward certainly isn't going to be easy.  Those holidays numbers are the immediate roadblock, they are fucking insanity.

Love the information and great analysis by you and Baumer. Much appreciated!

 

I think the next two weekends will give us a much more definitive answer.

 

Infinity War after its first month in theaters (after 5th weekend) earned 91.7% of it's total run. Hoping it's not worse than that. With the reception I would think not but what do I know?

 

[baumer]

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ok this is ridicoulous now, every time endgame has a great day you will cheered and say that force awakens is going down and every day that its has a bad day you will say that it wont beat it ? really ? just stop , and wait and see its 50/50 as of now dont be so sure that it will do it but  dont be so sure that it wont do it , if endgam can keep up until the 4 weekend ( that seems in its favor as of now , then probably will take the dom crown if not  ...) noone says that the path is easy but to start changing some things somefo you here based on one fucking day is idiotic to say the least, yes i know that this is what we do here but i want to say  that some of you need to chill and just wait remeber when some of you here thought that captain marvel will do barely 400 dom after sec.third weekend ? no i am not saying that the same will apply to endgame but really after all this time some of you havent yet learned to not write off some movies or do the oppossite ?

 

Nope, not me.  I have said this from the beginning.  And it has not had a bad day at the box office.  A 21 million dollar non opening Thursday is fucking enormous.  And we're all allowed to have different opinions.  No need to get upset about it.  

[john2000]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Nope, not me.  I have said this from the beginning.  And it has not had a bad day at the box office.  A 21 million dollar non opening Thursday is fucking enormous.  And we're all allowed to have different opinions.  No need to get upset about it.  

i am not talking about you i said some users did it, i am not upset about the box office i am upset with some of the people who start to have meltdowns,  and so by your logic some people have the right to have meletdowns  if that so i have the right to call them too

Edited May 3, 2019 by john2000

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ok this is ridicoulous now, every time endgame has a great day you will cheered and say that force awakens is going down and every day that its has a bad day you will say that it wont beat it ? really ? just stop , and wait and see its 50/50 as of now dont be so sure that it will do it but  dont be so sure that it wont do it , if endgam can keep up until the 4 weekend ( that seems in its favor as of now , then probably will take the dom crown if not  ...) noone says that the path is easy but to start changing some things somefo you here based on one fucking day is idiotic to say the least, yes i know that this is what we do here but i want to say  that some of you need to chill and just wait remeber when some of you here thought that captain marvel will do barely 400 dom after sec.third weekend ? no i am not saying that the same will apply to endgame but really after all this time some of you havent yet learned to not write off some movies or do the oppossite ?

 

It's not being pessimistic, it's just looking at what is coming for both and seeing that the road forward is going to be tough.  Sure, we still need to see what this weekend will do, but those weekdays!

 

 If Endgame's next weekdays drop only 50%, then it's going to make about $58m.  That's about $54m less than what TFA did!

 

 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's not being pessimistic, it's just looking at what is coming for both and seeing that the road forward is going to be tough.  Sure, we still need to see what this weekend will do, but those weekdays!

 

 If Endgame's next weekdays drop only 50%, then it's going to make about $58m.  That's about $54m less than what TFA did!

 

 

OMFG  i am not talking about you , why you make it personal  ?? i am not talking about  you or the other guy ,you know what ? i shouldnt have said anything if you guys took it like i meant you bc i disagree with some of the things that you guys said   that doesnt mean that i am talking about you

Edited May 3, 2019 by john2000

[baumer]

On day 25, TFA was down to 3 million and change.  I'm not in the mood right now to figure out EG's trajectory, but I'm not sure it's going to have 3 mill weekdays once it hits day 25.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Nope, not me.  I have said this from the beginning.  And it has not had a bad day at the box office.  A 21 million dollar non opening Thursday is fucking enormous.  And we're all allowed to have different opinions.  No need to get upset about it.  

Sir, with that 21mn Thursday (during Holidays) TFA did 261mn 2nd week (during Holidays), with Endgame we are looking at possibly 225mn Approx, which IMO is bigger feat.

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

That’s actuslly more reason for a spillover into Monday and Tuesday.  Granted idk what it’ll do today

Not if Monday and Tuesday weren’t holidays. Some families might not have had another chance til the weekend 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

On day 25, TFA was down to 3 million and change.  I'm not in the mood right now to figure out EG's trajectory, but I'm not sure it's going to have 3 mill weekdays once it hits day 25.

Infinity War did 2.7mn on Day 25.

[baumer]

So just doing some quick basic math......IW's day 25 was 8.8% of it's first Monday.  If EG follows suit, it will be at 3.23 mill on day 25.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

So just doing some quick basic math......IW's day 25 was 10.93% of it's first Monday.  If EG follows suit, it will be at 4.03 mill on day 25.

 

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Sir, with that 21mn Thursday (during Holidays) TFA did 261mn 2nd week (during Holidays), with Endgame we are looking at possibly 225mn Approx, which IMO is bigger feat.

 

Not really a bigger feat imo.  The smaller weekdays just leads to bigger increases on the weekend.  So if we are having a dick measuring contest, I'd say both of them are some giant porno sized dicks.