Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

It's 2nd weekend drop is still going to be on par with or better than Ultron, I know you don't want this movie to break Avatar's record but atleast do some research before you throw out numbers.

I'm not sure what your point is here? Ultron dropped hard and I don't see why EG can't drop further

Edited May 4, 2019 by IronJimbo

[Alli]

My question: will it pass Avatar WW?

[JB33]

24 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It makes sense that a part 2 of a cliffhanger film would have a bloated opening weekend.

 

$850m dom max for me, leaning towards 790 to 820

The same drop in multi from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 to Part 2 still gets Endgame to $894.8M. It makes sense that a Part 2 of an epic would be a little frontloaded but even the front loaded Harry Potter didn't see a massive decrease in legs from its own finale Part 1 to Part 2 (2.369x to 2.253x). 

 

If that Friday number Deadline provided holds, I have to think the Saturday jump will be pretty big. I've crunched the numbers a few different ways (too tired and lazy to detail how I did so) and each time I come to a $155M to $160M weekend. I'm going to remain confident it will get to that range.

Edited May 4, 2019 by JB33

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Alli said:

My question: will it pass Avatar WW?

That's the only question left at this point, it's locked for 2nd Dom and 2nd WW

[Darth Lehnsherr]

It should pass Avatar WW and it shouldn't pass TFA DOM

[Alli]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

That's the only question left at this point, it's locked for 2nd Dom and 2nd WW

i hope it doesn't beat Avatar. That was such a accomplishment for an original movie

[oMeriMombatti]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm not sure what your point is here? Ultron dropped hard

Ultron had a 2.4 multiplier, if you multiply that with Endgame's weekend you get ~860M, plus this movie already had better weekdays than Ultron and also better WOM, so rather than saying 850M DOM is the roof, it's actually the floor.

[ViewerAnon]

AVATAR’s toast but I think FORCE AWAKENS is (sorta) safe.

 

Which, weirdly, I think works in Disney’s favor - tangible proof that the Mouse controls the two biggest franchises in movie history.

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

AVATAR’s toast

China really helped

[miketheavenger]

4 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

AVATAR’s toast but I think FORCE AWAKENS is (sorta) safe.

 

Which, weirdly, I think works in Disney’s favor - tangible proof that the Mouse controls the two biggest franchises in movie history.

Due to the Fox deal they now control Avatar as well though. As always, Disney wins, regardless of what happens.

[dxmatrixdt]

I wouldn't mind seeing Black Panther again in theaters if it goes towards pushing its domestic total past 700 million.

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

China really helped

When everything is said and done, we might look back at this run and wonder what may have propelled endgame over.

The Answer: it miraculously got a simultaneous release in China, thus exploding off the gate and take advantage of a 4-day May Holiday.

The margin might not be that close, but if the margin is that close, yes, it's China 

[Krissykins]

That’s not good for Long Shot. 

 

The Intruder cost $6m so that’s fine. It looks so dull though. 

 

Ugly Dolls is a bomb for STX, all that promo they mentioned in the Deadline article, yikes. 

 

Hard to comment on Avengers since I bet the actual number will be totally different lol. -58% would be a bit of a bigger drop than I expected though. 

[charlie Jatinder]

If it really come 41, that will be the 2nd biggest I am off from actuals. The biggest I was $5mn (6%) lower than actuals for Endgame Friday and today $3mn (7%) higher than actuals.

 

Also its very low. That said still waiting for actual update in 2-3 hours.

[Mekanos]

Yeah I think at this point the dropoffs are gonna be either in line with IW or slightly worse. A+ Cinemascores don't apply to movies that break the OW record by 100 million, I guess. lol

 

I'm gonna predict 900M/1.9B/2.8B. It'll beat Avatar by a hair. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Mekanos

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

When everything is said and done, we might look back at this run and wonder what may have propelled endgame over.

The Answer: it miraculously got a simultaneous release in China, thus exploding off the gate and take advantage of a 4-day May Holiday.

The margin might not be that close, but if the margin is that close, yes, it's China 

Since the avg growth globally is about 35% for the film, allowing for that raise in China over IW would still be $485mn. China seems to close at $625mn, that would be $140mn hypothetical over-performance. So only if Endgame do only $2.92 Billion, it will be China's fault.

 

And since, many felt Infinity War underperformed in China, that number could be even lower, for instance, China's neighbour India will be growing 50% approx on Infinity War and so will be most of countries in South East Asia.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Alexdube]

13 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

When everything is said and done, we might look back at this run and wonder what may have propelled endgame over.

The Answer: it miraculously got a simultaneous release in China, thus exploding off the gate and take advantage of a 4-day May Holiday.

The margin might not be that close, but if the margin is that close, yes, it's China 

China really is the whole story. When Avatar played back in 2009, China had a total of 5k screens. Today it has... 60k. It's amazing Avatar managed to do 200m in China with those numbers. It's the only reason Endgame even has a chance. And still it's far from a done deal, not with those weekend numbers. It's going to slowdown a lot after this weekend, China has given pretty much all it had to give and now a lot of competition is coming. Plus Endgame just doesn't have the wide appeal Avatar had, that movie targeted every demographic and you didn't need to have watched any other movies. Endgame is relying on the bulk of its fanbase, and it is massive, but that doesn't translate into infinite legs.  

[NCsoft]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

 Since the avg growth globally is about 35% for the film, allowing for that raise in China over IW would still be $485mn. China seems to close at $625mn, that would be $140mn hypothetical over-performance. So only if Endgame do only $2.92 Billion, it will be China's fault.

And wouldn't you say that it could very well happen? I can definitely see it coming under that number, but you're the expert 

Anyway, in a way, I'm kind of happy to see Hollywood ceiling being shattered in China, for obvious personal reasons.

[Mekanos]

This place will be a party when Avatar 2 is out.

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

China really is the whole story. When Avatar played back in 2009, China had a total of 5k screens. Today it has... 60k. It's amazing Avatar managed to do 200m in China with those numbers. It's the only reason Endgame even has a chance. And still it's far from a done deal, not with those weekend numbers. It's going to slowdown a lot after this weekend, China has given pretty much all it had to give and now a lot of competition is coming. Plus Endgame just doesn't have the wide appeal Avatar had, that movie targeted every demographic and you didn't need to have watched any other movies. Endgame is relying on the bulk of its fanbase, and it is massive, but that doesn't translate into infinite legs.  

Oh absolutely, well said! I've personally witnessed both run on Chinese online communities, and while both are huge events, there's one clear juggernaut run that signaled a change in that market like no other movie has since done.

Fantastic first post!