Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[Bagatelle31]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Bagatelle31

[Moses]

19 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah I think at this point the dropoffs are gonna be either in line with IW or slightly worse. A+ Cinemascores don't apply to movies that break the OW record by 100 million, I guess. lol

 

I'm gonna predict 900M/1.9B/2.8B. It'll beat Avatar by a hair. 

If EG won by 1dollar .this wilk be enough for me

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, Bagatelle31 said:

China and DOM are slowing down but you are underestimating OS, OS is huge of course but in proportions compare to DOM, OS wasn't as big as DOM weekend, even Korea and the UK have room for a good hold this weekend, I think only Australia was as high as DOM.

So you think it'll hit 2B OS?

 

I'm not sure myself... I'll wait to see what the weekend drops are like internationally.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

And wouldn't you say that it could very well happen? I can definitely see it coming under that number, but you're the expert 

Anyway, in a way, I'm kind of happy to see Hollywood ceiling being shattered in China, for obvious personal reasons.

In one sense, the ceiling is still there. Endgame will do just 20% more admits than F8.

 

Regarding that 2.92 thing, I still see it doing 3B with 41m Friday and TFA ain't lost just yet. 

 

We were spoiled by the great weekdays holds, now we are just back to normalcy in last two days.

 

And I did mentioned yesterday in Thursday thread,

18 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually, I won't be surprised with that. The Fridays so far this year, except 26th April have been underwhelming with Saturdays in doing bonkers numbers.

 

[SchumacherFTW]

The problem with looking at the OS numbers in dollar value is that it's very much skewed from what's actually happening when you compare them. Endgame is comfortably going to beat Avatar here in the UK in Stirling, but the dollar value is a lot lower as an example. 

[UserHN]

Come to think of it. If EG outgrosses Avatar, Jim might throw a temper tantrum which will force Disney to pacify him to maintain a good working relationship in the future. Maybe Jim will demand an all-out marketing campaign blitz for Avatar 2. You might see Iger dress as a Na'vi in shareholder meetings.

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 In one sense, the ceiling is still there. Endgame will do just 20% more admits than F8.



20% is quite a bit! Plus the $400M gross ceiling has been there since 2015, it's been 4 years, which is crazy for a market like China. 

I don't think Endgame is the film to test Hollywood admission ceiling in China, it feels like we're only half way there, but ultimately it's still a superhero film that requires much prior knowledge, with lots of dialogues, and too many characters to remember. I still think in theory, Fast & furious / Transformers type of films appeal to Chinese Audiences more, Marvel is just too powerful of a brand though.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Come to think of it. If EG outgrosses Avatar, Jim might throw a temper tantrum which will force Disney to pacify him to maintain a good working relationship in the future. Maybe Jim will demand an all-out marketing campaign blitz for Avatar 2. You might see Iger dress as a Na'vi in shareholder meetings.

They're already going to do there best when marketing the film, why wouldn't they.

 

2 potential 4 billie grossers back to back year.

[darthdevidem01]

I see Avatar going down worldwide thankfully

 

TFA will stay safe DOM and I'm happy with that to stay that away tbh. If it should beat TFA it should beat it adjusted at least or we'll never have peace there lol

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 They're already going to do there best when marketing the film, why wouldn't they.



Agreed, cost: benefit ratio in terms of marketing SW must be getting worse, Disney's by far the biggest live action adaptation (TLK) is out this year, and Marvel is taking a break from assembling for at least a while. There is no reason for Disney to not put all forces into promoting A2.

Edited May 4, 2019 by NCsoft

[UserHN]

If EG won't outgross Avatar, so be it. Chill people. Feige might become even more motivated to make a film in the future that can beat Avatar. I think they didn't even expect EG to gross so close to Avatar. I've read that even the Russos don't even want to talk about EG's record breaking OW because they think the audience should be talking about the film's story and not its gross.

[wildphantom]

quite impressed there haven’t been any meltdowns here yet. 

The movie is performing great and, after such a crazy opening week, just settling down for normal drops now most audiences have seen it. 

 

I see it getting to $850-870 million. Which is magnificent. 

[LaughingEvans]

Avatar is toast. It will take BvS legs to save its ass. 

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

20% is quite a bit! Plus the $400M gross ceiling has been there since 2015, it's been 4 years, which is crazy for a market like China. 

I don't think Endgame is the film to test Hollywood admission ceiling in China, it feels like we're only half way there, but ultimately it's still a superhero film that requires much prior knowledge, with lots of dialogues, and too many characters to remember. I still think in theory, Fast & furious / Transformers type of films appeal to Chinese Audiences more, Marvel is just too powerful of a brand though.

FF8 was unlucky with ER. ¥2.7B with normal ER is 410m while with favourable ER its 430 Approx.

Endgame is certainly more than half, considering WW2 did 145mn admits, EG will be closing at 85-90m. Ceiling for Hollywood would be around 110-120mn I guess.

[Nakamura]

Not relate to this thread but just curious, is the way the OS-China work the same as DOM one? Big jump on friday, continue to be highed on saturday, lower a bit on sunday? 

[Claudio]

12 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Not relate to this thread but just curious, is the way the OS-China work the same as DOM one? Big jump on friday, continue to be highed on saturday, lower a bit on sunday? 

Usually it goes like ( using DOM as comparison )

- lower jump on Friday 

- better jump on Saturday

- lower drop on Sunday

[miketheavenger]

What's interesting is that we could end up with three different movies in the biggest grosses category. Force Awakens DOM, Endgame WW and Avatar OS. That would be kind of cool to see.

[Brainbug]

Folks i like everyone to remember that during IW's run the Friday numbers always let some people here say "Disappointment" or "Thats a bit low". And then Saturday jumped massively and everyone was happy again.

[Bagatelle31]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

So you think it'll hit 2B OS?

 

I'm not sure myself... I'll wait to see what the weekend drops are like internationally.

I think so but we'll now better after this weekend 

[Taruseth]

21 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

What's interesting is that we could end up with three different movies in the biggest grosses category. Force Awakens DOM, Endgame WW and Avatar OS. That would be kind of cool to see.

Or as China is more and more often counted separate:

Four movies, Wolfs Warrior 2 in China and Avatar OS-Ch (those two at least are safe bets, they won't change)