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Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

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In good news for next weekend's openers, if Endgame is looking at the "good" hold, and not the "great" one, it will probably be the movie giving back screens next weekend.  That's huge for new openers, b/c right now, 12s and below are super-tight...and I was only projecting most to book Pika on 2 screens max (and maybe 1 of the 3 other new wide openers)...

 

For example, my local 12s for today have swiped a few extra showings (they started with a set slightly smaller) and have Endgame on the equivalent of 6 and 6.5 screens...since they both booked 3 openers this weekend (which, in theory, might get protected on full screens next weekend - although maybe not after their performances this weekend:), there was no way to book Pika with multiple screens, nor to get another movie without a full clear out, or without finally cracking the Endgame monopoly...this 2nd weekend number probably cracks the monopoly and gives the next weekend new movies some room to actually make some money...at least for Pika...

 

So, next weekend might not be kind to Endgame, but then I foresee a long and fruitful leg kick all the way to Spidey, with a late leg effect possible just like CM is getting one now...

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10 minutes ago, TMP said:

John Wick 3 with the highest OW of May 2019? If the other 3 big ones open with $50-55m like I think, and Wick hits closer to $60m... 🤔

 

You woudnt even need to underpredict Godzilla that much as it will have only Friday during May on its OW. Sat and Sun are June 1 and 2.

 

But im still not seeing a possible scenario where Pika or Aladdin open to only 50-55M.

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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
 
 
 
1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

In good news for next weekend's openers, if Endgame is looking at the "good" hold, and not the "great" one, it will probably be the movie giving back screens next weekend.  That's huge for new openers, b/c right now, 12s and below are super-tight...and I was only projecting most to book Pika on 2 screens max (and maybe 1 of the 3 other new wide openers)...

 

For example, my local 12s for today have swiped a few extra showings (they started with a set slightly smaller) and have Endgame on the equivalent of 6 and 6.5 screens...since they both booked 3 openers this weekend (which, in theory, might get protected on full screens next weekend - although maybe not after their performances this weekend:), there was no way to book Pika with multiple screens, nor to get another movie without a full clear out, or without finally cracking the Endgame monopoly...this 2nd weekend number probably cracks the monopoly and gives the next weekend new movies some room to actually make some money...at least for Pika...

 

So, next weekend might not be kind to Endgame, but then I foresee a long and fruitful leg kick all the way to Spidey, with a late leg effect possible just like CM is getting one now...

 

 

Endgame is still looking to 70+ million next weekend. Its keeping a dominance on Imax and premium screens till Alladin I think.

 

Pika Pika is a huge unknown right now, it could vastly underperform right now or do huge

Edited by Lordmandeep
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4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Endgame is still looking to 70+ million next weekend. Its keeping a dominance on Imax and premium screens till Alladin I think.

But losing 1/3-1/2 its current showings would be painful, even keeping pricey screens...before you even talk competition:).

 

I don't see how smaller theaters (12 and below) can avoid dropping Endgame's showings down that much, with Pika opening, and with a desire to grab at least 1 of the Mother's Day specific openers...

 

PS - And $70M might be the number...but that would be another 50%+ drop...

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Just now, TwoMisfits said:

But losing 1/3-1/2 its current showings would be painful, even keeping pricey screens...before you even talk competition:).

 

I don't see how smaller theaters (12 and below) can avoid dropping Endgame's showings down that much, with Pika opening, and with a desire to grab at least 1 of the Mother's Day specific openers...

 

 

 

Well the thing is a film is making 70 million you dont need 6 screens anymore, 3-4 is more than enough.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, TMP said:

idk, a $145m second weekend is pretty huge. I don't know how you could be disappointed in that, this film's still performing like an absolute beast.

But a 145M can not make it pass 2.2B at the end of this week 

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12 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Endgame is still looking to 70+ million next weekend. Its keeping a dominance on Imax and premium screens till Alladin I think.

 

Pika Pika is a huge unknown right now, it could vastly underperform right now or do huge

Indeed. Optimistic for DP is 65, that's my target. Hoping for more of course.

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6 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Well the thing is a film is making 70 million you dont need 6 screens anymore, 3-4 is more than enough.

 

 

You can keep the nicer screens too because DP doesn't need them. 

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6 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

But a 145M can not make it pass 2.2B at the end of this week 

 

it won’t pass 2.2B?  poor Endgame, guess it’s a bomb.  RIP Marvel, no coming back from Endgame not passing 2.2B at the end of this week

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8 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

But a 145M can not make it pass 2.2B at the end of this week 

So it's only going to make $2.1B after 12 days of international release? Jesus, this is SOLO all over again.

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54 minutes ago, TMP said:

idk, a $145m second weekend is pretty huge. I don't know how you could be disappointed in that, this film's still performing like an absolute beast.

I think it's because it's below TFA which had another week of holiday legs while EG is facing its first bigger competition next week. for us who are rooting for EG over TFA, this isn't the best news. but today jump could change odds in our favor. 

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