Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[Legion Again]

Certainly it’s lower than I hoped, but we’d literally never seen a 2nd weekend off an OW this ridiculous, so being within a couple % of IW seems pretty solid. Hopefully things stabilize more from here.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Admissions is the only TRUE way to judge movies across all eras against each other in terms of box office. 

 

If you are talking best / more impressive run it is a bit more complex than that imo, higher price could logically drive admission down (there something impressive into the ability to sell very high price tickets also), population/urban sprawling/existence of Television& othercompetition can also play a role. 

 

A bit like when you compare athlete of different era, how well it did versus their peers is the first I would look at to judge performance from different era, say how it did relative to the top 10 the year before, it's year and the next year to remove noise from other all time great competition.

 

25 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm not sure how much you can compare between eras though. I doubt it's even possible for something with Titanic's level of appeal to do what Titanic did these days. 

Nothing ever got close to Titanic that era either even an extremely hyped first Star Wars since the OT, no one thought it was possible, Avatar wasn't that long ago it didn't do Titanic type of phenomenon but was not that far off.

 

 

24 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Yeah. The Titanic vs. Endgame debate is pointless. They're too far removed from one another and released in completely different conditions.

All debate here are completely pointless but that one because of the removed is a bit less pointless, many other debate you can just look up at box office mojo without having anything to debate (it is pointless to debate over fact, just need to look them up).

 

 

42 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Titanic rules obviously. The biggest movie success of all time worldwide. Star Wars (original), Endgame, GWTW, Avatar are no match at all.

I am a bit curious about your international GWTW that you did dig to say that ? I would imagined that back in the days tracking of intl markets was not usual.

 

In the Uk it would still be number one of all time according to the BFI (wiht a ridiculous 35m tickets sold over the year):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

According to wiki the top 10 looked like that in 2017 according to guiness world records (would need Infinity War/End games to be added):

 

Highest-grossing films as of 2017 adjusted for inflation^{[32][Inf][AE]}

Rank	Title	Worldwide gross  (2017 $)	Year
1	Gone with the Wind	$3,703,000,000	1939
2	Avatar	$3,251,000,000	2009
3	Titanic	T$3,078,000,000	1997
4	Star Wars	$3,041,000,000	1977
5	The Sound of Music	$2,547,000,000	1965
6	E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial	$2,487,000,000	1982
7	The Ten Commandments	$2,354,000,000	1956
8	Doctor Zhivago	$2,232,000,000	1965
9	Jaws	$2,182,000,000	1975
10	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	TFA$2,144,000,000	2015

 

 

[keysersoze123]

One minus point of Endgame is long run time. After initial weekend when people watch it at any time at all cost, late shows slow down dramatically. I see here in Bay area even iMax/PLF are almost empty. I wish Multiplexes would reduce ticket prices for late sunday like pre-noon shows to encourage audience to come in. I dont see a point running a show with 4-5 tickets sold.

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

He is. 

 

Its actually 43M 

Joke 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I imagine if reception to Endgame was closer to say Ultron the drop would have taken the crown from Homecoming as the Worst 2nd Weekend Drop for an MCU film. 

[raulbalarezo]

[Andreas]

5 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

46

Quick maths

[MikeQ]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

A sequel has never been an all time record holder.

That is, I would say, largely because of the two original juggernauts of Titanic (1997) and then Avatar (2009). It seems a handful of sequels and established franchises would have snatched the worldwide record, if these two original films hadn’t so dramatically set new records (smashing the $1 billion and $2 billion marks, respectively, so handily for the first time). Titanic’s 12 year stretch with the crown is the longest serving worldwide record in modern box office history.

 

It is interesting to look at the films that would have set the worldwide record if Titanic and Avatar hadn’t existed. For example, the Harry Potter series would have set the record twice with its first and final films of the series. The final Lord of the Rings instalment would have also set the record. The Star Wars franchise would have set the record another two times (in additional to the original). Etc.

 

From Jurassic Park’s worldwide record in 1993 onwards:

(*All original run grosses only; films that didn't, but would have set the record, are in blue)

 

Jurassic Park (1993) — $914,691,118 (actual record holder prior to Titanic’s whopping % increase)

Titanic (1997) — $1,843,201,268 

The Phantom Menace (1999) — $924,317,558

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) — $974,755,371

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) — $1,118,888,979

Avatar (2009) — $2,749,064,328 

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon (2011) — $1,123,794,079

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) — $1,341,511,219

Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $1,518,812,988

Jurassic World (2015) — $1,671,713,208

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — $2,068,223,624

Avengers: Endgame (2019) — $2,188,698,638 (will be the current record holder; on its way to surpassing Avatar worldwide)

 

Peace,

Mike

[Gokai Red]

2 hours ago, MikeQ said:

That is, I would say, largely because of the two original juggernauts of Titanic (1997) and then Avatar (2009). It seems a handful of sequels and established franchises would have snatched the worldwide record, if these two original films hadn’t so dramatically set new records (smashing the $1 billion and $2 billion marks, respectively, so handily for the first time). Titanic’s 12 year stretch with the crown is the longest serving worldwide record in modern box office history.

 

It is interesting to look at the films that would have set the worldwide record if Titanic and Avatar hadn’t existed. For example, the Harry Potter series would have set the record twice with its first and final films of the series. The final Lord of the Rings instalment would have also set the record. The Star Wars franchise would have set the record another two times (in additional to the original). Etc.

 

From Jurassic Park’s worldwide record in 1993 onwards:

(*All original run grosses only; films that didn't, but would have set the record, are in blue)

 

Jurassic Park (1993) — $914,691,118 (actual record holder prior to Titanic’s whopping % increase)

Titanic (1997) — $1,843,201,268 

The Phantom Menace (1999) — $924,317,558

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) — $974,755,371

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) — $1,118,888,979

Avatar (2009) — $2,749,064,328 

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon (2011) — $1,123,794,079

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) — $1,341,511,219

Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $1,518,812,988

Jurassic World (2015) — $1,671,713,208

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — $2,068,223,624

Avengers: Endgame (2019) — $2,188,698,638 (will be the current record holder; on its way to surpassing Avatar worldwide)

 

Peace,

Mike

I don't think TF3 would have ever held the record. DH2 beat it to 1B, so it would've gone straight from ROTK to DH2.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Gokai Red

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

  

According to wiki the top 10 looked like that in 2017 according to guiness world records (would need Infinity War/End games to be added):

  



Highest-grossing films as of 2017 adjusted for inflation^{[32][Inf][AE]}

Rank	Title	Worldwide gross  (2017 $)	Year
1	Gone with the Wind	$3,703,000,000	1939
2	Avatar	$3,251,000,000	2009
3	Titanic	T$3,078,000,000	1997
4	Star Wars	$3,041,000,000	1977
5	The Sound of Music	$2,547,000,000	1965
6	E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial	$2,487,000,000	1982
7	The Ten Commandments	$2,354,000,000	1956
8	Doctor Zhivago	$2,232,000,000	1965
9	Jaws	$2,182,000,000	1975
10	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	TFA$2,144,000,000	2015

  

  

I use that chart from time to time to argue in Avatar's favour, I do think something probably went seriously wrong when adjusting for Titanic... It is suggesting that it sold less ticket than Avatar globally。

That chart ultimately still favors new releases in general, since it considers global inflation but not market expansion, nor does it take global total box office increase over the years into account. Global market expansion will make it super easy to get on that chart in the next 10 years or so, and the expansion of developing markets is going to boost that admission amount through the roof, even GWTW adjusted might not be safe, because the ceiling for a film globally today I believe is higher than 3.7B, all factors considered, it's just that no film is "Titanic" enough to test that limit.

That's the flaw of not adjusting for market expansion.

 

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

  

If you are talking best / more impressive run it is a bit more complex than that imo, higher price could logically drive admission down (there something impressive into the ability to sell very high price tickets also), population/urban sprawling/existence of Television& othercompetition can also play a role. 

  

A bit like when you compare athlete of different era, how well it did versus their peers is the first I would look at to judge performance from different era, say how it did relative to the top 10 the year before, it's year and the next year to remove noise from other all time great competition.

  

Nothing ever got close to Titanic that era either even an extremely hyped first Star Wars since the OT, no one thought it was possible, Avatar wasn't that long ago it didn't do Titanic type of phenomenon but was not that far off.

Really good point, admission number may not be ideal for gauging whether a run is historic, for these reasons:

1. I think 3D and premium showing drives down repeat viewing, that's why I don't really like people using 3D subcharge against Avatar, money made is money made.

 

2. Global Market expansion almost ensures that admission tickets increases like crazy each year, especially in China (China's annual admission increased by 8 times in the past 10 years). So comparing a movie released recently or popular in developing countries, will always give it an admission advantage, for a lack of comparison between movies released around the same time, a vertical comparison doesn't work in this case.

 

For these reasons, I think you just mentioned the best way to gauge a film's run/gross:

 

How does it compare to the top 10 grossing film of that year and the year before the film's release.

How does it compare to the biggest films around the same time?

How much did it break the previous record by, what percentage increase?

How many total ticket sold around the world in its year of release, and what proportion of those tickets did this film take in that specific year?

What was the total global box office of the year when the film was released, and what proportion did the film take in that specific year?

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by NCsoft

[keysersoze123]

James Cameron wanted MCU movies to decline. So its matter of time for him to re-release Avatar HFR 3D version to take back WW BO gross. Probably sometime early 2020 or couple of months before Avatar 2.

[TServo2049]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

One minus point of Endgame is long run time. After initial weekend when people watch it at any time at all cost, late shows slow down dramatically. I see here in Bay area even iMax/PLF are almost empty. I wish Multiplexes would reduce ticket prices for late sunday like pre-noon shows to encourage audience to come in. I dont see a point running a show with 4-5 tickets sold.

AMC Bay Street 16’s Dolby Cinema was full at my 11:15 matinee.

 

Also, unless they have no other choice (e.g., crowded OW), are people really going to see a movie late on a Sunday when they have school/work the next morning? I certainly don’t.

Edited May 6, 2019 by TServo2049

[NCsoft]

36 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

From Jurassic Park’s worldwide record in 1993 onwards:

(*All original run grosses only; films that didn't, but would have set the record, are in blue)

 

Jurassic Park (1993) — $914,691,118 (actual record holder prior to Titanic’s whopping % increase)

Titanic (1997) — $1,843,201,268 

The Phantom Menace (1999) — $924,317,558

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001) — $974,755,371

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) — $1,118,888,979

Avatar (2009) — $2,749,064,328 

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon (2011) — $1,123,794,079

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) — $1,341,511,219

Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — $1,518,812,988

Jurassic World (2015) — $1,671,713,208

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — $2,068,223,624

Avengers: Endgame (2019) — $2,188,698,638 (will be the current record holder; on its way to surpassing Avatar worldwide)

 

Peace,

Mike

Awesome analysis, Mike, this actually kind of provide talking point for my stance, global WW crown is cool but not that special, it is Avatar and Titanic that is special.  If we only have marginal increases each time, we will see record broken in quick succession.

 

I actually did this exact same mental exercise on a bus today, and realized that if we wipe Cameron off the map, Return of The King would have held the global box office crown for 8 years, that might be the closest comparison to Endgame that I can find. Then I realized, as you listed, a whole list of films would have taken the spot in quick succession and we would have changed global crowns numerous times!

 

So basically, if Cameron never existed, worldwide box office record would have entered the "sequel domination" phase in 1999, initiated by The Phantom Menace.

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by NCsoft

[MikeQ]

6 minutes ago, Gokai Red said:

I don't think TF3 would have ever held the record. DH2 beat it to 1B, so it would've gone straight from TF3 to DH2.

That's a good point. In which case, we could remove it from the list. I didn't break it down enough to see who would have hit the new record first, in terms of dailies. I listed it by opening date - i.e. Dark of the Moon opened first and went on to gross the new record during its run, followed by Deathly Hallows Part 2 opening next and then going on to set the new record. Your logic I think makes more sense.

 

Also, I'm noticing I made the same typo/mistake with Dark of the Moon's title in the list that I ALWAYS make. My brain seems to keep thinking the title ought to be Dark Side of the Moon. 

 

Peace,

Mike

[keysersoze123]

ET had good WW gross. Amazing for its time when OS markets were limited to few developed countries.

[stealthyfrog]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

James Cameron wanted MCU movies to decline. So its matter of time for him to re-release Avatar HFR 3D version to take back WW BO gross. Probably sometime early 2020 or couple of months before Avatar 2.

Would enough people show up for an Avatar re-release? It'd probably make a buck or two in China, but everywhere else? I'm not sure if there's any interest. I'd go since I haven't seen Avatar in 3D yet.

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

It is definitely Madonna, and as a lamb, I should also state that between Celine and Mariah, there isn't a conclusive consensus as to who have sold more. But Mariah does have a larger number of hits, billboard chart records, and generally influenced a list of singers (Beyonce, Christina, Ariana etc....), which Celine can't really claim. 

Oh, can we move on to the Madonna vs Mariah vs Celine debate, to replace Endgame vs Avatar vs Titanic? 

Which movie does each of the singers represent? How has music streaming impacted their sales? How would inflation reflect on Madonna's earliest hits, with the Hamburg Opera House, when she first hit the scene, in the 1680's?

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by reddevil19

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Which movie does each of the singers represent?

Obviously,

Celine = Titanic

Madonna = Avatar

Mariah = MCU

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Would enough people show up for an Avatar re-release? It'd probably make a buck or two in China, but everywhere else? I'm not sure if there's any interest. I'd go since I haven't seen Avatar in 3D yet.

I think there is enough JC fanbase to gross few hundred million WW. You are underestimating the man.

[Thomas Beck]

17 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Would enough people show up for an Avatar re-release? It'd probably make a buck or two in China, but everywhere else? I'm not sure if there's any interest. I'd go since I haven't seen Avatar in 3D yet.

 

I would go at least. Haven't actually seen Avatar yet, so should get it done before Avatar 2 hits, and watching it in cinemas would be preferable to TV.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Thomas Beck