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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

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10 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Geez, I did not see this coming at all. I felt I was UNDER-predicting it with my $15M predict.

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29 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

Interesting, it makes sense overall market demand for theatrical films would be higher in the era without easy home video substitutes.  

 

That still goes along with the point that you can’t use admissions as a measure of popularity between two different time periods because market structures were simply different

Yes, no TV or with TV post the 50s is definitely a clear cut in popularity of the theater (that an urban sprawling back in the days the percentage of people living at walking distance of a movie theater was huge versus today, living kids alone with the oldest one in charge did change also over the year's):

 

Screen+Shot+2012-01-02+at+10.26.25+PM.pn

 

Has we see above if the population was not 250% of what it was in 1939 + now having way less studio movie and digital release making it easy for the same movie to play everywhere and being the only one watched movies would not have much chance to compete today. Graphing ticket price and admission by capita, does not seem to be a factor, maybe it is versus stronger force, but could be that the market optimize itself quite well asking price wise.

 

I think  that pre-tv with your ticket at the time you had multiple movies for the small one, you had a news real, it is completely different pre and post TV, since television it almost didn't change too.

 

That why, a good way to take a lot of the factor into account (market structure, inflation, ticket price vs people purchasing power, Domestic population, number of theater, etc...) is to simply compare vs the competition, in 2100 someone can rapidly see that Titanic pretty much doubled an super hyped, one if not the most anticipated movie ever Phantom Menace and that Harry Potter the book success of all book success didn't came that close either.

 

Someone that studied historical run quite a bit on the imdb box office board did a metric back in the days, that was a form of % of ticket sold, weighted % of ticket sold versus the other biggest movie of is era (something like the top 5 the year before, it's year, the year after removing outlier of them). With that metric Gone With the Wind (just the initial first release), Sound of music, E.T. ,Star Wars, Titanic had almost the same score, has if there were some maximum movie could reach.

 

That metric did seem to feature movies from all era quite well and let one from any era a shot to "win", making it the most interesting imo.

Edited by Barnack
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Not $150M, but at least it got a 7 in there!😁

Edited by sfran43
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Edited by sfran43
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2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Well there it is. It indeed falls short of the 2nd weekend record. Still a shit ton of money though!

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3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Not $150M, but at least it got a 7 in there!😁

I was off by 10M from my $157M target for prayer. 

 

Next stop is 77M for third weekend! 

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44 minutes ago, Broshnat said:

Maybe I'm missing something here.

 

Supply is essentially infinite - you can go into any movie theatre now and watch Endgame.

 

So, assuming a constant ticket price (which is a fair assumption), the amount of tickets sold is proportional to the demand.

 

As Barnack states above - ticket prices relative to income have been remarkably consistent over the years (even back to the 40s) and is also fairly consistent from country to country.

Supply is not infinite in theatrical market, supply is fixed.  There are a set amount of seats available in a single showing before that showing sells out, simply it'd be the goal of the theater to sell out these screens at the highest price they can get away with.

 

This is a nice, easy to read publication that gives a general rundown of theatrical markets.

 

They have a good description of what goes into the Demand aspect of a film on a given day

 

"When looking at the supply and demand market for motion pictures, one has to realize that it is unlike most markets. Price is fixed for each movie in a theater for those of the same age and for those wanting to see a movie during the same time of day. Changes in price do not have to be considered because there will simply not be any. Supply can be considered fixed as well. There are only so many movie theater seats in the United States and more will not be built with the excitement of a new movie coming out. Since price and supply are generally fixed, the only variation one can witness is in the location of the demand curve. A visual representation of this unique supply and demand model can be seen in Figure 1. 


Total revenue is calculated by figuring the product of price and quantity of tickets sold, in this case Fixed Price and QS. This model suggests a shortage of movie tickets for a particular film at a particular show-time. At the ticket price, more tickets are demanded than seats are available at the theater, resulting in a shortage. While no movie theaters, or production companies for that matter, want to lose potential customers, it is a good sign when the demand for a particular show is so high.


 Several variables can influence the location of the demand curve such as the price of complementary goods, the price of substitute goods, and popular attitudes or trends in society (Mankiw, 2009). Complementary goods to movies are popcorn, soda, and candy, but the relationship is not necessarily reciprocal. The prices of popcorn, soda, and candy will not have a major impact on the demand for movies, so complementary goods will not be included in this study. Substitute goods are other movies at the same theater, but their price will be the same as all of the other movies, so prices of substitute goods will also not be included in this study. Popular trends and attitudes determine whether a film will be successful or not. Famous actors/actresses, advertising, genre, rating, special effects quality, and professional reviews affect popular attitudes towards a particular movie and each can shift the demand curve either favorably or adversely. Seasonality of a film can also impact success at the box-office. 


During the summer months and the weeks leading up to Christmas, children are home from school and typically go to the movies in order to pass the time. Also, movie theaters seem to be some of a handful of places open during national holidays and many families partake in a film on those days. How much of an effect each variable has on consumer demand remains to be seen."

 

Some things to note in Topf's description is that it's looking at a given day inside the theater, so long term theatrical prices are obviously not fixed, and can be changed based on the overall market demand for movies (while this is looking at demand of a specific film in a specific theater).  But the model helps you to see that if the price changes, you can reduce/increase the quantity demanded (admissions number for the film) without actually changing the demand (think popularity) of that given film.  

 

The article is a rather simplistic take on it all, but I think it helps to demonstrate the point being made on why admissions quantity being higher wouldn't necessarily mean the actual demand (or popularity) of that film being higher.

 

https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1337&context=parkplace

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8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Yes, no TV or with TV post the 50s is definitely a clear cut in popularity of the theater (that an urban sprawling back in the days the percentage of people living at walking distance of a movie theater was huge versus today, living kids alone with the oldest one in charge did change also over the year's):

 

Screen+Shot+2012-01-02+at+10.26.25+PM.pn

 

Has we see above if the population was not 250% of what it was in 1939 + now having way less studio movie and digital release making it easy for the same movie to play everywhere and being the only one watched movies would not have much chance to compete today.

 

I think  that pre-tv with your ticket at the time you had multiple movies for the small one, you had a news real, it is completely different pre and post TV, since television it almost didn't change too.

 

That why, a good way to take a lot of the factor into account (market structure, inflation, ticket price vs people purchasing power, Domestic population, number of theater, etc...) is to simply compare vs the competition, in 2100 someone can rapidly see that Titanic pretty much doubled an super hyped, one if not the most anticipated movie ever Phantom Menace and that Harry Potter the book success of all book success didn't came that close either.

 

Someone that studied historical run quite a bit on the imdb box office board did a metric back in the days, that was a form of % of ticket sold, weighted % of ticket sold versus the other biggest movie of is era (something like the top 5 the year before, it's year, the year after removing outlier of them). With that metric Gone With the Wind (just the initial first release), Sound of music, E.T. ,Star Wars, Titanic had almost the same score, has if there were some maximum movie could reach.

 

That metric did seem to feature movies from all era quite well and let one from any era a shot to "win", making it the most interesting imo.

Yes, I agree with what you're saying.  The best way to observe a film's popularity is to compare it with other movies released around it's same timeframe, not sure if I was clear on that.

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AEG 2nd Saturday is the 10th biggest Sat of all time edging out CW's 1st Sat. It's also the only movie to have 2 of those in Top-10.

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We'll see a normal Monday drop today so I'm thinking $11.2M to $11.3M (75% drop).

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I went on vacation and when I came back the Like button was fixed!!!

 

Who should I thank for that?

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7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

10 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Overall numbers are still crazy good. But sunday drop being few % higher than IW could be down to running time.

IW dropped like 77%+ on monday. But it had softer Sunday drop and Endgame is playing strong in iMax/PLF and so I am assuming smaller drop. 73% to around $12.2m monday?

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4 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

Supply is not infinite in theatrical market, supply is fixed.  There are a set amount of seats available in a single showing before that showing sells out, simply it'd be the goal of the theater to sell out these screens at the highest price they can get away with.

 

This is a nice, easy to read publication that gives a general rundown of theatrical markets.

 

They have a good description of what goes into the Demand aspect of a film on a given day

 

"When looking at the supply and demand market for motion pictures, one has to realize that it is unlike most markets. Price is fixed for each movie in a theater for those of the same age and for those wanting to see a movie during the same time of day. Changes in price do not have to be considered because there will simply not be any. Supply can be considered fixed as well. There are only so many movie theater seats in the United States and more will not be built with the excitement of a new movie coming out. Since price and supply are generally fixed, the only variation one can witness is in the location of the demand curve. A visual representation of this unique supply and demand model can be seen in Figure 1. 


Total revenue is calculated by figuring the product of price and quantity of tickets sold, in this case Fixed Price and QS. This model suggests a shortage of movie tickets for a particular film at a particular show-time. At the ticket price, more tickets are demanded than seats are available at the theater, resulting in a shortage. While no movie theaters, or production companies for that matter, want to lose potential customers, it is a good sign when the demand for a particular show is so high.


 Several variables can influence the location of the demand curve such as the price of complementary goods, the price of substitute goods, and popular attitudes or trends in society (Mankiw, 2009). Complementary goods to movies are popcorn, soda, and candy, but the relationship is not necessarily reciprocal. The prices of popcorn, soda, and candy will not have a major impact on the demand for movies, so complementary goods will not be included in this study. Substitute goods are other movies at the same theater, but their price will be the same as all of the other movies, so prices of substitute goods will also not be included in this study. Popular trends and attitudes determine whether a film will be successful or not. Famous actors/actresses, advertising, genre, rating, special effects quality, and professional reviews affect popular attitudes towards a particular movie and each can shift the demand curve either favorably or adversely. Seasonality of a film can also impact success at the box-office. 


During the summer months and the weeks leading up to Christmas, children are home from school and typically go to the movies in order to pass the time. Also, movie theaters seem to be some of a handful of places open during national holidays and many families partake in a film on those days. How much of an effect each variable has on consumer demand remains to be seen."

 

Some things to note in Topf's description is that it's looking at a given day inside the theater, so long term theatrical prices are obviously not fixed, and can be changed based on the overall market demand for movies (while this is looking at demand of a specific film in a specific theater).  But the model helps you to see that if the price changes, you can reduce/increase the quantity demanded (admissions number for the film) without actually changing the demand (think popularity) of that given film.  

 

The article is a rather simplistic take on it all, but I think it helps to demonstrate the point being made on why admissions quantity being higher wouldn't necessarily mean the actual demand (or popularity) of that film being higher.

 

https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1337&context=parkplace

 

So you are saying that a movie theatre will constantly change the admission price for each movie on an hourly basis based on the real time demand?

 

Maybe it is different where I am but the ticket price at my local theatre is the same for every movie at every showing any time this week.

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2 minutes ago, kitik said:

I went on vacation and when I came back the Like button was fixed!!!

 

Who should I thank for that?

 

@Water Bottle i think

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More than monday its drop next weekend is more interesting. Can it beat Pikachu to stay number 1. Pikachu will easily win friday but Endgame’s wed/thu drops will tell us if it has a chance to stay number 1.

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