Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[TServo2049]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

More than monday its drop next weekend is more interesting. Can it beat Pikachu to stay number 1. Pikachu will easily win friday but Endgame’s wed/thu drops will tell us if it has a chance to stay number 1.

I was hoping for an Inside Out vs. Jurassic World squeaker between EG and DP, just because those are always fun. It feels more possible now than it seemed going into the weekend.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Endgame has massive drop, this is where the massive runtime hurts it,  it probably had 20% less screenings without any theaters dropping it this weekend 

[JB33]

Well I overpredicted....everything.

[keysersoze123]

Also kudos to charlie to get Sunday gross correct to 0.1m despite getting it out several hours before Actuals are reported. Even the call yesterday from Charlie/RTH of 46m was just 2% off.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Well I overpredicted....everything.

 

You coudnt live with your greatest overpredictions.

 

And where has that lead you?

 

Back to basic 2nd weekend multiplier math based on historical comparisons.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Well I overpredicted....everything.

Everyone did coming off that crazy OW. I thought I was extremely conservative predicting a range of 150-160m. Friday increase was slightly below expectations that made it miss 2nd weekend record. Otherwise it did great. Almost 62m 2nd saturday is batshit crazy.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

You coudnt live with your greatest overpredictions.

 

And where has that lead you?

 

Back to basic 2nd weekend multiplier math based on historical comparisons.

Yep, I'm all kinds of stubborn.

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Endgame has massive drop, this is where the massive runtime hurts it,  it probably had 20% less screenings without any theaters dropping it this weekend 

That I agree with.

 

Same goes for Crumblo aka Dumbo

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Everyone did coming off that crazy OW. I thought I was extremely conservative predicting a range of 150-160m. Friday increase was slightly below expectations that made it miss 2nd weekend record. Otherwise it did great. Almost 62m 2nd saturday is batshit crazy.

Yeah it's the Friday bump that killed my initial expectation that the weekend would cruise to 160+.

 

But like I said, the numbers are still huge! What are all your thoughts on the chances of $900M domestic? The domestic record isn't happening, in my mind.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Everyone did coming off that crazy OW. I thought I was extremely conservative predicting a range of 150-160m. Friday increase was slightly below expectations that made it miss 2nd weekend record. Otherwise it did great. Almost 62m 2nd saturday is batshit crazy.

Agreed, question is how it holds up this week and next weekend. I hope it does well.

IW dropped 77.4% for Monday. Hoping it does better say 75%.

[XXR vs XXR]

$10.83m Monday is my prediction 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Should make for an intriguing 3rd weekend. Thinking 75+. Currently prediction around 85.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

$10.83m Monday is my prediction 

Gimme 11.17

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Everyone did coming off that crazy OW. I thought I was extremely conservative predicting a range of 150-160m. Friday increase was slightly below expectations that made it miss 2nd weekend record. Otherwise it did great. Almost 62m 2nd saturday is batshit crazy.

 

I think the massive first week days hold that was I imagine now mostly overflow of the weekend than a real signal of great legs (multiplier wise) was quite misleading.

 

Many more conservative view was starting with the answer, if this continue like this we are looking above 1.1b if not more dbo and that sound crazy and will not happen so this need to drop like a normal sequel soon type of "bad way" to predict but that worked here.

 

How much demand it burned, with how much people that didn't go see Infinity War can really go see this + how big the previews were make in hindsight that under 150m "obvious", but after those OW numbers it was easy to believe no rule did apply anymore.

[The Panda]

22 minutes ago, Broshnat said:

 

So you are saying that a movie theatre will constantly change the admission price for each movie on an hourly basis based on the real time demand?

 

Maybe it is different where I am but the ticket price at my local theatre is the same for every movie at every showing any time this week.

No lmao, that's not what I said or the article said at all.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah it's the Friday bump that killed my initial expectation that the weekend would cruise to 160+.

 

But like I said, the numbers are still huge! What are all your thoughts on the chances of $900M domestic? The domestic record isn't happening, in my mind.

900m is highly probable. Even if it looks like falling short Disney will do late expansion to pull it over.

 

Sw7 dom looks tough but not impossible.

[a2k]

52.5% drop for 70 3rd weekend is my guess.

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

900m is highly probable. Even if it looks like falling short Disney will do late expansion to pull it over.

 

Sw7 dom looks tough but not impossible.

I think you're underestimating how much impact competition will have on Endgame. It won't face a Deadpool film, but this coming weekend it'll likely hold worse than IW, and IW's 6th weekend and 7th weekend had minimal competition so it had great holds. That won't be the case with Endgame as it faces Godzilla, Rocket, Dark Phoenix, and Secret Life of Pets 2.

 

$880M-$890M is the target, in my opinion.

[sfran43]

 

[dakus]

24 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah it's the Friday bump that killed my initial expectation that the weekend would cruise to 160+.

 

But like I said, the numbers are still huge! What are all your thoughts on the chances of $900M domestic? The domestic record isn't happening, in my mind.

If Endgame has the same 2nd weekend multiplier as Infinity War, it would finish at around the 910M range. I think Endgame will fall short of 900M with how packed the summer is.

Edited May 6, 2019 by dakus