Tuesday May 7 - AEG12.518 LS1.38 Intruder1.33 Ugly708.8k BT560k LaLorona458k CM394 Shazam!294k Little193 Code Geass173

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

I know we are getting into the minutiae of the box office here but I don't really think it matters all that much what legs are like 4 endgame. It's slaughtered to bloody pulp the opening weekend record and it's going to take the world wide record. It doesn't matter if it makes 900 million or 850 million the movie is a bonafide global smash.

Wish I could "like" this more than once!!!

[Sindreee]

Decent number. People expecting big weekday numbers from a 3 hour + previews long movie is crazy.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Sindreee said:

Decent number. People expecting big weekday numbers from a 3 hour + previews long movie is crazy.

I don't think it's the number itself, it's the bump. In other words, this number would be just fine if the Monday number was lower (which is where your reasoning about the movie not doing well on weekdays because it's 3 hours long comes into play).

[john2000]

Just now, JB33 said:

I don't think it's the number itself, it's the bump. In other words, this number would be just fine if the Monday number was lower (which is where your reasoning about the movie not doing well on weekdays because it's 3 hours long comes into play).

👍

[BiffMan]

3 hours ago, LonePirate said:

Correct. It has the best legs of any film to open north of $258M. Who knows when those legs will be matched or exceeded.

To be fair, it also has the worst legs of any film to open north of $258M... 

 

Point taken, uncharted territory is inherently somewhat unpredictable. 

[Porthos]

A film makes 287 million dollars or so in nine days after its opening weekend, and folks are wondering if that means it has good legs or not.

 

Okay.

 

===

 

Said it before and I will keep saying it.  Focusing on multis too much is like focusing on the trees and losing sight of the forest.

[Porthos]

In all the arguing, did anyone post the actuals?  If so, didn't see it:

 

	Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Avengers: Endgame	Walt Disney	$12,518,963	+17%	4,662	$2,685	$644,506,419	12
2	(2)	Long Shot	Lionsgate	$1,383,202	+68%	3,230	$428	$11,944,609	5
3	(3)	The Intruder	Sony Pictures	$1,331,892	+66%	2,222	$599	$12,987,700	5
4	(4)	UglyDolls	STX Entertainment	$708,798	+95%	3,652	$194	$9,674,902	5
5	(6)	Breakthrough	20th Century Fox	$560,523	+97%	2,884	$194	$34,028,766	26
6	(5)	The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros.	$458,535	+42%	2,540	$181	$49,083,339	19
7	(7)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$394,134	+39%	2,243	$176	$421,451,815	61
8	(8)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$294,392	+51%	2,521	$117	$135,738,235	33
9	(9)	Little	Universal	$193,210	+66%	1,359	$142	$38,839,780	26
10	(10)	Dumbo	Walt Disney	$156,438	+51%	1,668	$94	$110,048,077	40
-	(-)	Us	Universal	$71,640	+17%	599	$120	$174,053,560	47
-	(-)	Pet Sematary	Paramount Pictures	$66,723	+28%	655	$102	$53,878,869	33
-	(-)	Penguins	Walt Disney	$58,262	+39%	1,052	$55	$6,809,931	21
-	(-)	Missing Link	United Artists	$31,802	+6%	707	$45	$16,215,317	26
-	(-)	The Mustang	Focus Features	$22,515	+47%	229	$98	$4,870,865	54
-	(-)	After	Aviron Pictures	$20,013	+108%	227	$88	$11,994,865	26
-	(-)	How to Train Your Dragon: T…	Universal	$16,500	+19%	245	$67	$159,968,865	75

 

 

(still not complete)

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[andrewgr]

2 minutes ago, BiffMan said:

To be fair, it also has the worst legs of any film to open north of $258M... 

 

Point taken, uncharted territory is inherently somewhat unpredictable. 

I can't tell if this is bait or a joke.  I mean, yes, it has the worst legs of any film to open north of $258M, but it also has the best legs of any film to open north of $258M, since it's the only film to open north of $258M.

 

Assuming for the moment that it was a joke and not bait:

 

I think part of the reason people who are rooting for EG to set records get their dander up is because they read a phrase like "worst legs" as being a negative or an attack, because in most situations saying "worst X" is a criticism.

 

In this case, it's just a numerically true statement.  It's not bad or good, it's just a mathematical fact.  And it doesn't imply anything bad either.  "Worst legs" is about a ratio, using opening weekend as the denominator.  It's a useful number for making predictions and stuff, but in and of itself it doesn't matter.  If Avatar 2 opens with a 5 billion dollar weekend and then does 1 billion dollars its second weekend, that will be the worst first to second week drop ever for a blockbuster, and it would set up the "worst legs" ever for a blockbuster.  Using absurd numbers like this makes it easier to see why the phrase "worst legs" isn't actually a negative judgment.

 

Endgame made almost $100 million more than any other film in history on its opening weekend.  If it turns out that its legs aren't enough to get it to TFA or 900 million, that will accurately reflect the fact that the pent up demand for a new Star Wars movie was slightly greater than the demand for the final movie in this phase of the MCU.  The poor legs will be due to the fact that so many people were so excited about it that they went in record numbers to see it opening weekend, not because it is any less of a movie.  It has a 95% RT critics score, and with an 8.9 is the highest rated movie of all time on IMDB for heaven's sake, it's not like "bad legs" implies it's getting bad word of mouth or people don't want to see it twice or anything like that.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

A film makes 287 million dollars or so in nine days after its opening weekend, and folks are wondering if that means it has good legs or not.

 

Okay.

 

===

 

Said it before and I will keep saying it.  Focusing on multis too much is like focusing on the trees and losing sight of the forest.

Very true. I have to remember to keep that in mind.

 

Regardless, wouldn't you say the Tuesday bump is...odd? Unexpected? The number itself is good at this point in time but isn't it small enough to still benefit from a bump more than 17%?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Very true. I have to remember to keep that in mind.

 

Regardless, wouldn't you say the Tuesday bump is...odd? Unexpected? The number itself is good at this point in time but isn't it small enough to still benefit from a bump more than 17%?

I'd put it more to random variation, myself.

 

Like, commenting: "Wow, was expecting something higher" is totes fair game.

 

Trying to draw any sort of conclusion on it is... Why?  Just... Why?

 

Let me know when EG shows signs of 'collapsing'* so hard that it misses, oh lets say, 825m DOM (which I think is impossible).  That's when the look at legs should start.

 

* scare quotes intentional

 

But let's say it does 850m DOM.  That's still 500m after its OW.  I kinda consider that to be good legs.

 

Others are welcome to disagree.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

But then again, I am the Resident Multiplier Skeptic on this board when it comes to mega openers and damn proud of it, so I would be the one to make this argument, wouldn't I?

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I'd put it more to random variation, myself.

 

Like, commenting: "Wow, was expecting something higher" is totes fair game.

 

Trying to draw any sort of conclusion on it is... Why?  Just... Why?

 

Let me know when EG shows signs of 'collapsing'* so hard that it misses, oh lets say, 825m DOM (which I think is impossible).  That's when the look at legs should start.

 

* scare quotes intentional

 

But let's say it does 850m DOM.  That's still 500m after its OW.  I kinda consider that to be good legs.

 

Others are welcome to disagree.

Fair enough. I think at this point I'm tempted to just throw the box office rulebook out the window with regards to this movie. That way there are no expectations as far as bumps, drops, multis etc.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

A film makes 287 million dollars or so in nine days after its opening weekend, and folks are wondering if that means it has good legs or not.

 

Okay.

 

===

 

Said it before and I will keep saying it.  Focusing on multis too much is like focusing on the trees and losing sight of the forest.

I remember @baumer using that logic when people were ridiculing legs of Twilight movies. Don’t think people bought it 🙂

Another thing movies(with Good WOM) that open to record breaking OW generally have good legs. Spidey 1 had incredible legs after smashing OW at 114m. Pirates 2 had good legs. TDK has great legs after beating OW record. Avengers did awesome after crushing OW record. JW also did > 3x after beating OW record.

IW and especially Endgame has hit OW levels that prevent it from hitting incredible legs(3x or greater multi) despite great reaction. There is after all only so many people to watch the movie.

So I agree with you that any movie making 500m after OW has had crazy legs. No point looking at OW multi.

[baumer]

I guess the way to look at it is when the movie opens up a hundred million more then the last record holder did it's going to fade a little bit quicker. Nothing wrong with that just the way it is

[baumer]

@keysersoze123 its funny reading your post about me and Twilight LOL. It just made me think how far back some of us really do go when it comes to this site. Twilight started in 2008 and I know you go back to the mojo days as well. You know some of us have known each other for more than 15 years? It's pretty crazy when you think about it.

[terrestrial]

O.K., back from helping, what did I miss.....

Oh cool, totally sound arguments, that is what I looooove here so much!

 

In addition to all what was said here in this thread, I think the immense OW was also based on the secrecy thing and spoiler avoidance thing, and as a part whatever (I know its 22, but part whatever about Thanos) = rush factor is probably also over the average even for a CBM movie, maybe even in a big way.

 

I've seen posts like the run time argument is an excuse. I think the runtime is not such a point during OW, weekend and holidays in general, also during day-time in school free times, but if all schools are back in session (especially in times of lots of exams / finals, that might e.g. be less of a problem directly during the beginning of a new school year), than it can be a point at weekdays excluding Friday after the first rush is done/through.

 

What I kind of think is interesting:

we seem to enter a bit of another time for blockbuster (see overlapping characters, multi-parts, e.g. Fast & Furious too, not only CBM) = maybe a good start to collect data with an awareness about possible changes, to develop new qualifier for the 'drop/increase'-pattern.

Fun times!

[Porthos]

Looks like the thread has calmed down enough right now that I can make this observation about the prospects of the coming weekend:

 

 

===

 

I mean I want to be wrong... 

[Lordmandeep]

Look at this way

 

Civil War Legs: 811 million

IM3 Legs:  838 million

AOU LEGS: 857 million

IW legs: 944 million 

 

It looks like it will land somewhere between AOU and IW legs. 

 

[KJsooner]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

@keysersoze123 its funny reading your post about me and Twilight LOL. It just made me think how far back some of us really do go when it comes to this site. Twilight started in 2008 and I know you go back to the mojo days as well. You know some of us have known each other for more than 15 years? It's pretty crazy when you think about it.

 

Baumer, remind me what was the club you were in where you ended up making out with your dog bc it failed?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Sindreee said:

Decent number. People expecting big weekday numbers from a 3 hour + previews long movie is crazy.

Ummm did you see last weeks daily grosses?? 

 

They're massive. 

 

The 3 hour runtime has had zero impact since it came out. It’s not starting to have any impact now.