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RE: Avengers: Endgame

 

Release
Month
Average
Multiplier
Median
Multiplier
Release
Month
Average
Multiplier
Median
Multiplier
January 2.88 2.66 July 3.30 3.22
February 2.81 2.73 August 3.22 3.00
March 3.02 2.89 September 2.87 2.75
April 2.76 2.65 October 3.02 2.75
May 2.95 2.82 November 3.43 3.23
June 3.13 3.01 December 5.45 4.76
all (1025 movies) 3.21 2.93
excludes 2018-2019 releases

highest month in blue; lowest month in red

numbers from top openings (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

 

MCU sequel average: 2.53

MCU first sequel average: 2.58

MCU second sequel average: 2.46

MCU third sequel average: x.xx (whatever Avengers: Endgame finalizes as)

 

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(click image to enlarge)

(*Avengers: Endgame currently excluded from averages)

 

In other words I guess, don't expect performance miracles from a sub-series third sequel released a year later from the previous one in the most frontloaded release month of the year especially when it opens a $100M over its predecessor which likely means some of that post-OW demand from a year ago shifted to the OW this time around.

Edited by MagnarTheGreat
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1 hour ago, JB33 said:

You have a good point. There aren't many films that are as big box office wise while being comparable in terms of length, structure etc.

I guess we have to accept that this film is breaking all the rules, not just opening weekend rules.

that too was what I meant, its a bit crazy all in all, we will have to look at the graphs and such in a few weeks and again, if another big blockbuster with a real high buzz gets released, look into common and not-common details...

 

36 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Fair enough. I think at this point I'm tempted to just throw the box office rulebook out the window with regards to this movie. That way there are no expectations as far as bumps, drops, multis etc.

Hahaha, I feel the same

Maybe we will get Chinese patterns in a few years for the big blockbuster and similar to today-  with a tendency to be a bit faster too - for normal movies? Fingers crossed that that will take as many years as possible till that happens.

 

It feels like something MIGHT change more obviously than the little steps we got over the last some years (OW mps, previw sizes and starting times, ... too, and so on)

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50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But then again, I am the Resident Multiplier Skeptic on this board when it comes to mega openers and damn proud of it, so I would be the one to make this argument, wouldn't I? ;)

Last Jedi had terrible legs. Worst legs for a holiday wide release. I am sure you agree. :sparta:

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13 minutes ago, baumer said:

@keysersoze123 its funny reading your post about me and Twilight LOL. It just made me think how far back some of us really do go when it comes to this site. Twilight started in 2008 and I know you go back to the mojo days as well. You know some of us have known each other for more than 15 years? It's pretty crazy when you think about it.

I don’t know about you, Baumer, but I am still a little reluctant to accept Friday night estimates from anyone not named Steve or Nikki.

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13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Ummm did you see last weeks daily grosses?? 

 

They're massive. 

 

The 3 hour runtime has had zero impact since it came out. It’s not starting to have any impact now. 

I can definitively state that this is not true.  It does have an impact, though it might be minor.  In fact, besides my wife and myself, every other person in our circle of friends who has seen the movie has explicitly stated that they can't go on a weekday because they need to get up for work the next morning, so they've seen it on the weekend.  My wife and I are seeing it a 2nd time, this coming Saturday; if it was 30 minutes shorter, we quite probably would have seen it tomorrow night instead.

Possible additional information that may explain this: we're in our 50's, and so are our friends; even as recently as 10 years ago, this would not have been an issue.

Edited by andrewgr
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19 minutes ago, baumer said:

@keysersoze123 its funny reading your post about me and Twilight LOL. It just made me think how far back some of us really do go when it comes to this site. Twilight started in 2008 and I know you go back to the mojo days as well. You know some of us have known each other for more than 15 years? It's pretty crazy when you think about it.

Do you remember OW of New Moon. opening saturday was coming after record busting 26m in pure midnights and 72m OD. Suddenly everyone started posting significantly fewer sellouts and we used to get notfabio updates for his MTC in hsx. I remember seeing saturday predictions like 30m from everyone celebrating the crash of twilight in the thread. Suddenly RTH chimed in(Back then he was new to providing real time BO numbers) with 43m saturday and the thread went wild. Good times indeed. 🙂

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16 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

 

Baumer, remind me what was the club you were in where you ended up making out with your dog bc it failed?

I honestly have no idea what that batch was. I do know you can still find that on YouTube.

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11 minutes ago, andrewgr said:

I can definitively state that this is not true.  It does have an impact, though it might be minor.  In fact, besides my wife and myself, every other person in our circle of friends who has seen the movie has explicitly stated that they can't go on a weekday because they need to get up for work the next morning, so they've seen it on the weekend.  My wife and I are seeing it a 2nd time, this coming Saturday; if it was 30 minutes shorter, we quite probably would have seen it tomorrow night instead.

Possible additional information that may explain this: we're in our 50's, and so are our friends; even as recently as 10 years ago, this would not have been an issue.

right, so you just confirmed the runtime did not have an impact. everyone interested is still gonna buy a ticket anyway,  just will choose the time which is convenient for them. So the gross will be exactly the same whether it sells the tickets on Wednesday night or Saturday night.

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@keysersoze123 I remember the opening weekend of New Moon very very well because I was the first person to say that new moon would have a 100 million dollar opening weekend. Shawn and I went back and forth on it 4 months. He was telling me I was crazy and I was telling him that the movie was going to blow up. It's probably my best call that I've ever made in terms of box office. It obviously sort of kind of at least gives me a free pass on my terrible calls like The hangover under very bad things LOL.

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16 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I don’t know about you, Baumer, but I am still a little reluctant to accept Friday night estimates from anyone not named Steve or Nikki.

I remember until RTH started giving us early numbers. It was mason and nikki fighting each other to provide us early numbers. For midnights only updates from notfabio in the middle of the night for his MTC. Midnights we’re extrapolated from that. We definitely did not get OD estimates at 12PM PST. Now at 10AM we are asking for numbers 🙂

That is still better than how it was few years earlier when we waited until saturday morning to get friday numbers. DMC’s OD numbers put BOM forums in frenzy and there was a resident Supes fan who made the forum so miserable that they ran away to KJ(which was started couple of years earlier due to another exodus).

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1 minute ago, baumer said:

@keysersoze123 I remember the opening weekend of New Moon very very well because I was the first person to say that new moon would have a 100 million dollar opening weekend. Shawn and I went back and forth on it 4 months. He was telling me I was crazy and I was telling him that the movie was going to blow up. It's probably my best call that I've ever made in terms of box office. It obviously sort of kind of at least gives me a free pass on my terrible calls like The hangover under very bad things LOL.

And it still holds the Wednesday record. Not even in a holiday.

 

Good call.

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Just now, LonePirate said:

I don’t know about you, Baumer, but I am still a little reluctant to accept Friday night estimates from anyone not named Steve or Nikki.

Ahhhh don't remind me

Just now, andrewgr said:

I can definitively state that this is not true.  It does have an impact.  In fact, besides my wife and myself, every other person in our circle of friends who has seen the movie has explicitly stated that they can't go on a weekday because they need to get up for bed the next morning, so they've seen it on the weekend.  My wife and I are seeing it a 2nd time, this coming Saturday; if it was 30 minutes shorter, we quite probably would have seen it tomorrow night instead.

Possible additional information that may explain this: we're in our 50's, and so are our friends; even as recently as 10 years ago, this would not have been an issue.

Me probably the same age or so (nearing the next big number) totally agree.

But me working at a school can also say: families with age of the children varying, or smaller children need babysitter, who need to be back at their homes at certain times too...

longer, more expensive = weekend the grandparents might take them...

= as mentioned, for the first 'have to see it' time, yes, but for a repeat, .. I do think the run time has an impact. Not to all of the audience, but parts of it.

I think the first week had a lot of spillovers, the try to avoid spoilers... and repeat views of younger people, but after the second weekend, with the spillover being served, I am absolute not surprised the people get back to be more sensible again.

 

Children movies (families) are even under 90 minutes at times, not every movie for older audience is even reaching a 2 hours runtime....

= I think its not even 'only a half hour' difference, its a full hour, even if other movies also had longer running times in the past.

 

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I haven’t read anything in this thread. 

 

There’s been 1 report each for 2 separate posts overnight. 

 

I assume this this thread is running smoothly with no problems then. 

 

NIRD

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I love all these old BOT stories. As someone who has only been here since Rogue One's' opening weekend, they're awesome! Wish I was around way earlier.

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1 hour ago, andrewgr said:

I can't tell if this is bait or a joke.  I mean, yes, it has the worst legs of any film to open north of $258M, but it also has the best legs of any film to open north of $258M, since it's the only film to open north of $258M.

 

Assuming for the moment that it was a joke and not bait:

Yes, just having fun and trying to stay with the spirit of today's post. He said best legs, I believe also in jest, so I just yang'd his yin. I think that's what the kids are calling it these days... 

 

When something opens this huge, legs aren't as relevant, that's just the +/- 10% icing on the stupid-huge cake. 😉

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4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

right, so you just confirmed the runtime did not have an impact. everyone interested is still gonna buy a ticket anyway,  just will choose the time which is convenient for them. So the gross will be exactly the same whether it sells the tickets on Wednesday night or Saturday night.

yes and no

 

for the most that will be right (in especial 1-time repeater), but if a long enough time has passed, other details enter your thinking, your day-to-day live, so instead of watching it maybe e.g. 6 times as some here do, those with family or a demanding profession, being in exams,... might only watch it 3 or 4 times instead

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1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

yes and no

 

for the most that will be right (in especial 1-time repeater), but if a long enough time has passed, other details enter your thinking, your day-to-day live, so instead of watching it maybe e.g. 6 times as some here do, those with family or a demanding profession, being in exams,... might only watch it 3 or 4 times instead

I highly doubt anyone with a family or a busy job would watch any film 6 times regardless of length.

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