Wednesday Numbers | Asgard 1: EndGame 8.4M Wed

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[oMeriMombatti]

The Curse of La Llorona's success has kind of gone under radar. It's about to touch 50M DOM and is already at 105M WW on a 9M budget. Another smashing success in the Conjuring Universe, 6th in a row. The total WW gross of Conjuring Universe is 1.67B on 113M budget.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[oMeriMombatti]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Should pass Lion King, POTC:DMC and HG:CF by the end of weekend or Monday. #21 on All-Time Domestic list.

[ZattMurdock]

I'm updating @American Pie is better numbers to explain where I think Endgame can go:

 

 

Mon: $10.7

Tue: $12.5

Wed: $8.3

Thu: $8

 

Weekdays: $39.5m

 

Fri: $18.1

Sat: $29.5

Sun: $19.7

 

Weekend: $67.3m

 

I think this is very realistic projections, and it'd place Endgame by Sunday around $728m. That would be around $14m behind where TFA was at the 17th day of its run. After the 17th day, TFA is out of the holiday season days and it's agreed that this is the moment that that run started to decline.

 

From that moment forward, TFA made *1.26 of that current gross, for the record breaking $936m total. IW in the same period of time had $548m, and from there made a *1.24 multiplier for a $678m finish.

 

A very reasonable multiplier for Endgame after Sunday would be *1.25, so around $910m. An more optimistic *1.27 multiplier would place it at $924.6m.

 

My understanding is that the Summer weekdays added to this been the culmination of 22 films, plus the "biggest film of all time" and Far From Home to remind us all to rewatch the film will help the film a lot. An *1.29 multiplier from a $728.1 17th day for Endgame would be enough to top TFA. But it all depends of how much it stabilizes in the upcoming days.

 

Hard, but not impossible, given the Summer weekdays and weekends help later in the run.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Your eternal optimism is nice, but unfortunately, the numbers aren't giving any indication of this happening.

 

Endgame started Monday $81m ahead of TFA, but after just three weekdays, it's only $23m ahead.  Even if EG manages to stay flat today(which it won't), the lead is down to about $9m.

 

Looking at the weekend, let's be give it the benefit of the doubt and say it drops an even 50%, now Endgame is actually behind TFA by about $7m.  

 

It totally could recover and fall behind by no more than $35m or so to hang on to the dream of $900m, but we have to see.  Actually making up ground later would require a lot and who knows, maybe it will happen.  I'd say the chances are like 1% though.  

I'm not taking a stand on where Endgame ends up...but after this weekend, TFA did lose all of its holiday effect, and it started the weaning of kids and young adults out of school, losing it entirely after MLK weekend...the reverse situation will be happening with Endgame - after this weekend starts the slow gaining of people out of school, so weekdays will start to inch to a more positive week-over-week hold effect,,,will it be enough?  I don't know...but I know right now that I don't know so I won't say "locked" either way...in fact, I won't be in the "locked" camp until Endgame actually drops under 3K theaters or it's after Spidey's open, whichever comes 1st:)...

 

PS - For the record, I've said for awhile, I don't think this will be a great weekend for Endgame, either...but I DO think good holds start next weekend (with Memorial Day weekend probably being a surprisingly awesome hold:)...

 

PPS - Looking at future theater drops...Endgame will hold over all May 3rd movies everywhere (aka, every May 3rd opener will drop from a theater before Endgame)...if it and Pika are in a tight race this weekend, it will probably end up holding theaters over all May 10th openers, too...and then May 17, I think JW3 opens hard and fast, and Endgame ends up holding theaters over all May 17 openers...now you're talking about a rather long, rather high hold on theaters...the kind that normally does pay off...

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Avengers: Endgame	Walt Disney	$8,429,166	-33%	4,662	$1,808	$652,935,585	13
-	(3)	The Intruder	Sony Pictures	$702,134	-47%	2,222	$316	$13,689,834	6
-	(5)	Breakthrough	20th Century Fox	$399,177	-29%	2,884	$138	$34,427,943	27
-	(4)	UglyDolls	STX Entertainment	$371,819	-48%	3,652	$102	$10,046,721	6
-	(6)	The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros.	$301,169	-34%	2,540	$119	$49,384,508	20
-	(7)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$276,734	-30%	2,243	$123	$421,728,549	62
-	(8)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$207,403	-30%	2,521	$82	$135,945,638	34
-	(10)	Dumbo	Walt Disney	$118,944	-24%	1,668	$71	$110,167,021	41
-	(9)	Little	Universal	$107,845	-44%	1,359	$79	$38,947,625	27
-	(-)	Us	Universal	$59,835	-16%	599	$100	$174,113,395	48
-	(-)	Pet Sematary	Paramount Pictures	$56,059	-16%	655	$86	$53,934,928	34
-	(-)	Penguins	Walt Disney	$49,579	-15%	1,052	$47	$6,859,510	22
-	(-)	Red Joan	IFC Films	$29,392	-20%	140	$210	$619,941	27
-	(-)	Missing Link	United Artists	$26,489	-17%	707	$37	$16,241,806	27
-	(-)	The Mustang	Focus Features	$22,525	n/c	229	$98	$4,893,390	55
-	(-)	Unplanned	Pure Flix Entertain…	$18,470	+14%	134	$138	$17,963,370	41
-	(-)	How to Train Your Dragon: T…	Universal	$15,660	-5%	245	$64	$159,984,525	76
-	(-)	After	Aviron Pictures	$12,587	-37%	227	$55	$12,007,452	27
-	(-)	High Life	A24	$12,478	+3%	98	$127	$1,121,313	34
-	(-)	Wonder Park	Paramount Pictures	$8,580	-8%	195	$44	$45,209,142	55
-	(-)	Kalank	FIP	$6,827	-47%	85	$80	$2,725,341	22
-	(-)	The Best of Enemies	STX Entertainment	$6,398	-27%	134	$48	$10,149,249	34
-	(-)	Non-Fiction	IFC Films	$3,737	+24%	2	$1,869	$40,049	6
-	(-)	Isn’t it Romantic	Warner Bros.	$2,793	-20%	80	$35	$48,788,254	85
-	(-)	Gloria Bell	A24	$2,765	-11%	33	$84	$5,582,621	62
-	(-)	The LEGO Movie 2: The Secon…	Warner Bros.	$2,645	-22%	152	$17	$105,802,896	90
-	(-)	Alita: Battle Angel	20th Century Fox	$2,367	-15%	43	$55	$85,707,927	84
-	(-)	Fighting With My Family	United Artists	$1,574	-28%	45	$35	$22,941,306	84
-	(-)	Diane	IFC Films	$1,115	+54%	20	$56	$329,511	41
-	(-)	They Shall Not Grow Old	Warner Bros.	$642	-49%	16	$40	$17,956,209	143
-	(-)	Frank and Ava	Gravitas Ventures	$404	+11%	2	$202	$9,449	153

[Sagemode87]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

It's a lock to beat Avatar, domestically and worldwide.

Domestic is without question but is it really locked internationally? If the most this made most of its money domestically, is it possible its gonna slow down everywhere else too? 

[jaybox]

Does anyone else think this can STILL beat Force Awakens? Couldn't Far From Home give Endgame a crazy bump/hold that puts it within range if not over the top? I don't think it's as "over" as others are proclaiming. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by jaybox

[oMeriMombatti]

4 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said:

Domestic is without question but is it really locked internationally? If the most this made most of its money domestically, is it possible its gonna slow down everywhere else too? 

It's Wednesday OS(22.1M) was greater than OS Tuesday(21.7M), it's not slowing down anytime soon. Avatar is toast DOM & WW. 

[sfran43]

 

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, jaybox said:

Does anyone else think this can STILL beat Force Awakens? Couldn't Far From Home give Endgame a crazy bump/hold that puts it within range if not over the top? I don't think it's as "over" as others are proclaiming. 

Yeah, it’s definitely still possible. I don’t expect to be saying that 7 days from now, but the multiplier required from these last days still isn’t that implausible as late legs.

[sfran43]

John Wick is coming for us next weekend!!!🤗

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I wonder if certain people who were acting butt hurt about people calling the Tuesday increase weak will make a comment?

 

Depending on what DP opens with I wouldn't be surprised with a near 60% drop. I'm predicting a 55% drop but I acknowledge that it could over perform during the weekend for all I know.

It's a worse situation for Wednesday than Tuesday and it indicates the weekend will probably drop down into the mid 60s when the goal was 80+ this time last week.

 

With the "butthurt" comment, you seem to be projecting. 58.8 is possible sure, just as likely as 75.

[xiazhi]

2 hours ago, tawasal said:

Damn is that a single day for Japan? 10m on a weekday is huge, if it isn't a holiday. 

That's the first week. First day in Japan is 2.7M

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, jaybox said:

Does anyone else think this can STILL beat Force Awakens? Couldn't Far From Home give Endgame a crazy bump/hold that puts it within range if not over the top? I don't think it's as "over" as others are proclaiming. 

By the time it comes out, every one will already have seen it, Antman 2 did not give AIW a bump

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, it’s definitely still possible. I don’t expect to be saying that 7 days from now, but the multiplier required from these last days still isn’t that implausible as late legs.

I would put beating TFA in the same likelyhood of finishing at 800m. Both extremely unlikely.

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by cdsacken

[JimiQ]

Actually, why are we expecting this to drop worse than Ultron in it's third weekend (50% sharp)? It wasn't as well received and had Pitch perfect 69m and Mad Max 45m openings. Pika does PP at best and Hustle is doing half Mad Max (maybe third)