cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Just now, JimiQ said: Actually, why are we expecting this to drop worse than Ultron in it's third weekend (50% sharp)? It wasn't as well received and had Pitch perfect 69m and Mad Max 45m openings. Pika does PP at best and Hustle is doing half Mad Max (maybe third) Because it requires absolutely monster jumps just to hit high 60s thanks to super low Wednesday numbers. It was received much worse but had way way lower OW and 2nd weekend which means less demand burn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Assuming end game has another 200 million left domestically that means it needs around 300 million internationally to pass Avatar. unless it completely falls off the map I don't see how it doesn't pass it. And the chances of it passing the force awakens are 0%. It just is not going to have the legs to do it. It's not an indictment of the movie it's just that it opened so big which means everybody who wanted to see it rushed out to see it just like they did with deathly Hallows Part 2. Dread it run from it Destiny still arrives all the same. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, cdsacken said: It's a worse situation for Wednesday than Tuesday and it indicates the weekend will probably drop down into the mid 60s when the goal was 80+ this time last week. With the "butthurt" comment, you seem to be projecting. 58.8 is possible sure, just as likely as 75. I agree that Wednesday numbers are more telling. I plugged in 66mil in my Derby and I feel okay with that for now. I don't see under 60mil happening so when I say near 60% I really mean it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 1 minute ago, baumer said: Assuming end game has another 200 million left domestically that means it needs around 300 million internationally to pass Avatar. unless it completely falls off the map I don't see how it doesn't pass it. And the chances of it passing the force awakens are 0%. It just is not going to have the legs to do it. It's not an indictment of the movie it's just that it opened so big which means everybody who wanted to see it rushed out to see it just like they did with deathly Hallows Part 2. Dread it run from it Destiny still arrives all the same. I tend to agree. What I'm curious is to see where it stands after the 5th weekend. TFA did very little and fell off hard after that. I expect End Game will as well but I will be curious to compare late late legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said: I agree that Wednesday numbers are more telling. I plugged in 66mil in my Derby and I feel okay with that for now. I don't see under 60mil happening so when I say near 60% I really mean it. Well then don't say it lol yeah for me I'm no different. 67 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, cdsacken said: I would put beating TFA in the same likelyhood of finishing at 800m. Both extremely unlikely. 800 requires global catastrophe. TFA just a couple surprisingly nice holds soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, cdsacken said: I tend to agree. What I'm curious is to see where it stands after the 5th weekend. TFA did very little and fell off hard after that. I expect End Game will as well but I will be curious to compare late late legs. I don't agree at all that the force awakens did nothing after week 5. Look at the drops that it had after week 5. some of them were less than 20%. And I believe week 5 was around 35%. The force awakens had incredible legs, we all know that. I don't think endgame will be able to come anywhere close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimiQ Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Just now, baumer said: I don't agree at all that the force awakens did nothing after week 5. Look at the drops that it had after week 5. some of them were less than 20%. And I believe week 5 was around 35%. The force awakens had incredible legs, we all know that. I don't think endgame will be able to come anywhere close to that. To be fair we didn't think 357 opening is possible 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, JimiQ said: To be fair we didn't think 357 opening is possible 🙂 Yeah but that's different than projecting now. It was unprecedented what it open to. But the numbers are becoming clear for us so I just don't see at this point using the trajectory that we have right now, that there's any feasible way that end game will pass the force awakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 TFA had good late legs. it had 3x multiplier of a 4 day holiday MLK weekend. That is not bad. What killed its 1B hopes was 4th weekend drop. Similarly what will kill Endgame’s TFA hopes would be this weekend holds. No way it makes it with mid to late 60’s weekend. Next weekend its losing more of IMax and PLF and almost all of it with Aladdin’s release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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LonePirate Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 It is still early but the Pikachu sales tonight at my nearby AMC are nothing special. There are three showings on the Dolby screen and they have sold a combined 65 tickets. Granted, these tickets did not go on sale until two days ago. The primary pre-sale prime time showing has almost 100 tickets sold for it right now with scattered tickets sold for all of the other showings tonight. Maybe it will be walk up heavy as the pre-sales for Friday and Saturday are very, very light. Endgame is looking at an atrocious drop at this theater today as it lost all but the late morning Dolby show and the afternoon and evening IMAX shows were converted to 3D for today only and the sales are pathetic. On the flip side, Endgame has significantly more seats sold for Friday and Saturday than Pickachu has. I still think it will be a close weekend between the two unless Pikachu’s walk-up business never materializes. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 1 minute ago, LonePirate said: It is still early but the Pikachu sales tonight at my nearby AMC are nothing special. There are three showings on the Dolby screen and they have sold a combined 65 tickets. Granted, these tickets did not go on sale until two days ago. The primary pre-sale prime time showing has almost 100 tickets sold for it right now with scattered tickets sold for all of the other showings tonight. Maybe it will be walk up heavy as the pre-sales for Friday and Saturday are very, very light. Endgame is looking at an atrocious drop at this theater today as it lost all but the late morning Dolby show and the afternoon and evening IMAX shows were converted to 3D for today only and the sales are pathetic. On the flip side, Endgame has significantly more seats sold for Friday and Saturday than Pickachu has. I still think it will be a close weekend between the two unless Pikachu’s walk-up business never materializes. I agree with you . With Endgame losing Prime time Dolby/PLF shows in several markets, its going to drop worse than IW. I am thinking ~7.8m thursday. But friday its getting back all evening Dolby shows and so it should have good friday increase. I could see Saturday increase impacted losing day time PLF shows but its still playing in so many screens that it will make up with regular digital shows. Endgame has huge advantage in screen/show count over Pikachu. I just don’t see Pikachu winning this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 4 hours ago, Deep Wang said: Your eternal optimism is nice, but unfortunately, the numbers aren't giving any indication of this happening. Endgame started Monday $81m ahead of TFA, but after just three weekdays, it's only $23m ahead. Even if EG manages to stay flat today(which it won't), the lead is down to about $9m. Looking at the weekend, let's be give it the benefit of the doubt and say it drops an even 50%, now Endgame is actually behind TFA by about $7m. It totally could recover and fall behind by no more than $35m or so to hang on to the dream of $900m, but we have to see. Actually making up ground later would require a lot and who knows, maybe it will happen. I'd say the chances are like 1% though. Far From Home bounce. Far From Home bounce. Far From Home bounce. I said it 3 times. Is that how it works? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonePirate Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: I agree with you . With Endgame losing Prime time Dolby/PLF shows in several markets, its going to drop worse than IW. I am thinking ~7.8m thursday. But friday its getting back all evening Dolby shows and so it should have good friday increase. I could see Saturday increase impacted losing day time PLF shows but its still playing in so many screens that it will make up with regular digital shows. Endgame has huge advantage in screen/show count over Pikachu. I just don’t see Pikachu winning this weekend. Endgame had 5 Dolby shows (8, 12, 4, 8, 12) and 4 IMAX shows (11, 3, 7, 11) each day last weekend. This weekend, it has a single Dolby showing at 9:45 pm and the same 4 IMAX shows. The Dolby shows always outsold the IMAX shows that played an hour earlier except for the 7 pm show which was around a sell-out in a theater with 30+ more seats. It’s too early to tell if the IMAX showings will pick up the slack this weekend. If Pikachu does catch fire, I wouldn’t be surprised if Endgame drops 60%, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, LonePirate said: Endgame had 5 Dolby shows (8, 12, 4, 8, 12) and 4 IMAX shows (11, 3, 7, 11) each day last weekend. This weekend, it has a single Dolby showing at 9:45 pm and the same 4 IMAX shows. The Dolby shows always outsold the IMAX shows that played an hour earlier except for the 7 pm show which was around a sell-out in a theater with 30+ more seats. It’s too early to tell if the IMAX showings will pick up the slack this weekend. If Pikachu does catch fire, I wouldn’t be surprised if Endgame drops 60%, though. Almost everywhere else DP has way less PLFs. Yours is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonePirate Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, DeeCee said: Far From Home bounce. Far From Home bounce. Far From Home bounce. I said it 3 times. Is that how it works? Endgame will be in its 10th weekend on June 28th. It will not be on enough screens that weekend or the weekend before or after to have a significant bounce when FFH opens. IW was in 890 theaters in its 10th weekend. Summer competition for screens is far more intense than what Captain Marvel and Black Panther faced in April and May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Yes. Endgame has more PLF shows then Pikachu at most places. It keeps evening shows vs day shows for Pikachu. Day shows for Endgame has been waste land. So impact won’t be great except sat/sun. Real impact is next week when JW3 takes some IMAX and PLF. It has bigger release in these formats than Pikachu. I don’t see Endgame dropping 60%, But 55% drop could happen and I will be surprised by sub 50% drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
