Wednesday Numbers | Asgard 1: EndGame 8.4M Wed

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

What kind of drop does it need this weekend to have a chance of kissing Avatar WW? I understand international is still strong but partly because Russia opened up. It has no more markets to open to and DP could break out huge. DP may not take extra screens but it’s going to a lot of people who would otherwise rewatch Endgame. And I think Endgame is largely surviving off rewatches now, which for a 3 hour movie can be a tough decision.

You mean, like, Titanic (3h, 14m) and Avatar (2h, 42m)? Oh wait....

 

Yes, Avatar is toast WW. Done.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

What kind of drop does it need this weekend to have a chance of kissing Avatar WW? I understand international is still strong but partly because Russia opened up. It has no more markets to open to and DP could break out huge. DP may not take extra screens but it’s going to a lot of people who would otherwise rewatch Endgame. And I think Endgame is largely surviving off rewatches now, which for a 3 hour movie can be a tough decision.

DP doesn't look to be dominating, at least not enough to make Endgame have really poor drops which is the only way Endgame misses Avatar at this point.

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

What kind of drop does it need this weekend to have a chance of kissing Avatar WW? I understand international is still strong but partly because Russia opened up. It has no more markets to open to and DP could break out huge. DP may not take extra screens but it’s going to a lot of people who would otherwise rewatch Endgame. And I think Endgame is largely surviving off rewatches now, which for a 3 hour movie can be a tough decision.

 

Let's say it does 75 mill for Thurs-Sunday (domestically).

Then let's say it does another 130 million internationally.  That will put it at about 2.55 billion.  It's going to pass Avatar around May 21st or 22nd......let's say between 20-23rd.  It's almost locked to do it.  I say almost because I don't ever like to say anything is 100% locked to do something.  But this is 99.9% locked to pass Avatar.  It will probably hit 3 billion as well.

 

Not that this matters, but this movie is the most expensive film ever made.  The production budget is 356 million and you know that probably spent another 150 in marketing.  No matter of course....just pointing it out.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

What kind of drop does it need this weekend to have a chance of kissing Avatar WW? I understand international is still strong but partly because Russia opened up. It has no more markets to open to and DP could break out huge. DP may not take extra screens but it’s going to a lot of people who would otherwise rewatch Endgame. And I think Endgame is largely surviving off rewatches now, which for a 3 hour movie can be a tough decision.

Avatar WW could be missed if it drops 70% domestic and 60% OS. But that aint happening and so its going to beat it for sure.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Let's say it does 75 mill for Thurs-Sunday (domestically).

Then let's say it does another 130 million internationally.  That will put it at about 2.55 billion.  It's going to pass Avatar around May 21st or 22nd......let's say between 20-23rd.  It's almost locked to do it.  I say almost because I don't ever like to say anything is 100% locked to do something.  But this is 99.9% locked to pass Avatar.  It will probably hit 3 billion as well.

 

Not that this matters, but this movie is the most expensive film ever made.  The production budget is 356 million and you know that probably spent another 150 in marketing.  No matter of course....just pointing it out.

It will also sell more merchandise than most mcu films and make a ton on video.

 

How does it work now a day's with that. Like CM vs End Game streaming income. 

[baumer]

As for the run time, when a movie is really really good, like Titanic and Avatar and End Game and even JFK, people are happy to spend three plus hours in the theatre.  There's many more examples as well:

 

Schindler's List

Godfather 1 and 2

ROTK

The Green Mile

Lawrence of Arabia

Wolf of Wall Street

Gandhi

Dances with Wolves

 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It will also sell more merchandise than most mcu films and make a ton on video.

 

How does it work now a day's with that. Like CM vs End Game streaming income. 

 

Well, there's a reason it's so expensive.  Besides all the CGI, the salaries for this must be astronomical.  Getting all of these stars into one movie isn't cheap.  Wouldn't surprise me if they paid out 150 mill in up front salaries.  

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It will also sell more merchandise than most mcu films and make a ton on video.

 

How does it work now a day's with that. Like CM vs End Game streaming income. 

 

How does what work?

[Clouseau]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, there's a reason it's so expensive.  Besides all the CGI, the salaries for this must be astronomical.  Getting all of these stars into one movie isn't cheap.  Wouldn't surprise me if they paid out 150 mill in up front salaries.  

The huge cast bill was spread across the Infinity War / Endgame double though. I saw the Russos explain in an interview that by filming the two together they could get the cast for two movies at the cost of only a bit more than one movie would have been.

 

EDIT: IIRC, they said that was the ONLY reason for doing the two together.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Clouseau

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Clouseau said:

The huge cast bill was spread across the Infinity War / Endgame double though. I saw the Russos explain in an interview that by filming the two together they could get the cast for two movies at the cost of only a bit more than one movie would have been.

 

EDIT: IIRC, they said that was the ONLY reason for doing the two together.

 

That may be so but these guys are still being paid for two movies.  I realize that most of the cast is only kind of in the movie for a certain period of time but you still have to pay them.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Let's say it does 75 mill for Thurs-Sunday (domestically).

Then let's say it does another 130 million internationally.  That will put it at about 2.55 billion.  It's going to pass Avatar around May 21st or 22nd......let's say between 20-23rd.  It's almost locked to do it.  I say almost because I don't ever like to say anything is 100% locked to do something.  But this is 99.9% locked to pass Avatar.  It will probably hit 3 billion as well.

 

Not that this matters, but this movie is the most expensive film ever made.  The production budget is 356 million and you know that probably spent another 150 in marketing.  No matter of course....just pointing it out.

That seems bit too high. Anyway Avatar WW is toast. Question is Avatar OS. We will know after this weekend.

[baumer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

That seems bit too high. Anyway Avatar WW is toast. Question is Avatar OS. We will know after this weekend.

 

It did 282 last weekend.....i have no idea how much it is going to drop this weekend.  Point is, as you said, Avatar is toast.

[CloneWars]

26 minutes ago, baumer said:

As for the run time, when a movie is really really good, like Titanic and Avatar and End Game and even JFK, people are happy to spend three plus hours in the theatre.  There's many more examples as well:

 

Schindler's List

Godfather 1 and 2

ROTK

The Green Mile

Lawrence of Arabia

Wolf of Wall Street

Gandhi

Dances with Wolves

 

Gone With the Wind is 4 hours and the highest grossing adjusted film. That should also be on the list.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It did 282 last weekend.....i have no idea how much it is going to drop this weekend.  Point is, as you said, Avatar is toast.

Last week was holiday week in many markets. Russia was a 7 day run. China was HUGE. Japan was in Golden Week. Huge spillover helped 2nd weekend holds. Take Korea. Last week numbers were off the charts. Now it’s like 80% off. I am expecting most asian markets to slow down this week as well as Mexico. Europe minus Russia/Australia/Brazil will drive late legs.

[ZeeSoh]

4 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War dropped 52% and made about 65 million overseas in its 3rd weekend without China & Russia. Let's assume Endgame drops 55% as it has competition in the face of Detective Pikachu whereas Infinity War did not face any significant competition until next week from Deadpool 2. 

 

55% from last weekend = 83.25m (all numbers without China/Russia)

China this weekend = 16m 

 

Domestically Infinity War dropped about 46% in its 3rd weekend. Endgame will probably drop more. Boxofficepro thinks it will drop 52%. Let's say it drops 51% and makes 72 million.

 

So thats 83.25+16+72 = 171.25 (plus whatever it makes in Russia)

 

 

36 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Let's say it does 75 mill for Thurs-Sunday (domestically).

Then let's say it does another 130 million internationally.  That will put it at about 2.55 billion.  It's going to pass Avatar around May 21st or 22nd......let's say between 20-23rd.  It's almost locked to do it.  I say almost because I don't ever like to say anything is 100% locked to do something.  But this is 99.9% locked to pass Avatar.  It will probably hit 3 billion as well.

 

Not that this matters, but this movie is the most expensive film ever made.  The production budget is 356 million and you know that probably spent another 150 in marketing.  No matter of course....just pointing it out.

I posted the above in the international thread. Looking at about 100-105 OS and then whatever it makes domestically. I’d say 170 is a realistic target for this weekend. So we are looking at O/U 2.5b by Sunday. 2.55b is too high a target. 

 

Unfortunately it is more frontloaded than Infinity War both in domestic and OS and will definitely not hit 3b. Even same legs as Infinity War from this point forth wont get it to 3b. 

 

As for Avatar, I see it reaching that by month end or 1st week of June. I think Charlie also sees the same date range. And yes like you I dont wanna say anything is locked. Let’s see how this weekend goes before we start saying it’s definitely gonna pass Avatar because there are scenarios (realistic ones) where it might not. 

[baumer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Last week was holiday week in many markets. Russia was a 7 day run. China was HUGE. Japan was in Golden Week. Huge spillover helped 2nd weekend holds. Take Korea. Last week numbers were off the charts. Now it’s like 80% off. I am expecting most asian markets to slow down this week as well as Mexico. Europe minus Russia/Australia/Brazil will drive late legs.

 

So what do you think it will do this weekend?

[baumer]

I'm not as well versed with international numbers as some of you.  I do think it will easily get past Avatar and perhaps it will fall short of 3B but it won't be by much, I don't think.

[cdsacken]

33 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, there's a reason it's so expensive.  Besides all the CGI, the salaries for this must be astronomical.  Getting all of these stars into one movie isn't cheap.  Wouldn't surprise me if they paid out 150 mill in up front salaries.  

At least if not more. Rdj will make way over 75 million including back end.

[cdsacken]

Either way it's gonna pass Avatar by end of the month. If it somehow slowed insanely so and didn't it has 2 months to pass it. It's done just determining passing date now 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

So what do you think it will do this weekend?

@ZeeSoh has done terrific analysis.

 

 

4 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War dropped 52% and made about 65 million overseas in its 3rd weekend without China & Russia. Let's assume Endgame drops 55% as it has competition in the face of Detective Pikachu whereas Infinity War did not face any significant competition until next week from Deadpool 2. 

 

55% from last weekend = 83.25m (all numbers without China/Russia)

China this weekend = 16m 

 

Domestically Infinity War dropped about 46% in its 3rd weekend. Endgame will probably drop more. Boxofficepro thinks it will drop 52%. Let's say it drops 51% and makes 72 million.

 

So thats 83.25+16+72 = 171.25 (plus whatever it makes in Russia)

 

So I would say around 110m OS weekend. But I am not sure what % of wed/thu also be rolled in for 5-day and 4-day weekend markets.