Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Every Friday at 3: "Those numbers seem off. I don't buy 'em. Let's wait. Deadline is smoking crack."

 

Hey, we have traditions here at BOT. This is one of them.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

nah Avengers movies are leggy here generally then states. 

 

Like we are 12% of population of Canada but EG was only 8% of the opening weekend.

(28 million vs 357 million) 

 

like IW had 19.7/63 million run here lol 

 

Canada has around 1/10 of population and fewer than 1/10 of movie screens. So the BO makes sense.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

YES LONG SHOT

That hold would be sweet justice!

 

Also not surprising, given how most of us agreed on how great a movie it is. Obviously not many people bothered to check it out on opening weekend but that sweet word of mouth is kicking in.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

As for Scoob, the Detective Pikachu release date ain't that great of an idea, not just because SpongeBob 3 (which I think you're underestimating) carries a lot of strong will through both his own brand and the previous movie - which made 160M DOM in Goddamn March - but also because of that Pixar movie in June. And then Minions 2 in July. Add Artemis Fowl on Memorial Day, Jungle Cruise also in July and an untitled Sony Animated film at the end of July - competition that may not be strong, but is still vowing for that audience nonetheless - and Scoob would turn out to be in the wrong end of the ordeal. And in August, too many family releases will have already been out and the weekdays aren't that strong anymore. Scoob simply doesn't belong in the Summer, period. If I were to make moves for WB, besides GVK to Christmas, I'd put Scoob in the Hotel Transylvania 1/2 slot, aka mid September. There's Mitchells Vs. Machines in that month, but Scoob would easily trump it (Sony would move it for sure). Plus, I think it would benefit a lot from Halloween season appeal, as Scooby-Doo is a perfect kid-friendly Halloween franchise. And Smallfoot did pretty solid business in September last year, so it's not impossible for WAG films to succeed there, even if Storks and Ninjago didn't do so great.

I agree, it should fight for September/October imho. It’s a better spot than May. I was just saying in the case WB is stubborn and being completely incompetent at family films, they could move it up a week, but I agree that May isn’t good for it. 

 

As for Spongebob, it was one of the few animated films to fail to reach 3x multiple and the fact that it’s all CG means there’s not much of a hook the last one had as well as being a prequel.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Every Friday at 3: "Those numbers seem off. I don't buy 'em. Let's wait. Deadline is smoking crack."

For openers Deadline is not bad unless they are uber breakouts. For holdovers these early numbers are useless.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

unsure about the states but here in Canada, Endgame is beating DP handily today. 

EG is still beating Pika PIka on Fandango as well on the hourly tracker:

 

(last one with full updates)

2019-05-10 12:00:00	1051	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	862	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-10 12:00:00	179	The Hustle (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	115	Long Shot
2019-05-10 12:00:00	92	The Intruder (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	90	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	85	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	83	Poms
2019-05-10 12:00:00	45	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-05-10 12:00:00	44	Pokémon Detective Pikachu 3D
2019-05-10 12:00:00	40	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-05-10 12:00:00	39	UglyDolls
2019-05-10 12:00:00	34	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	33	Tolkien
2019-05-10 12:00:00	26	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-05-10 12:00:00	25	Breakthrough (2019)

[ZeeSoh]

12 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

If Pikachu does $20M today, why would it stop at $53M OW?

If that 20m includes previews then 53m is plausible. 

 

If it does not include preview numbers then they might be going with something like

 

5.7

20

16 (-20%)

11.2 (-30%)

[keysersoze123]

Deadline always reports friday number including previews.

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

If that 20m includes previews then 53m is plausible. 

 

If it does not include preview numbers then they might be going with something like

 

5.7

20

16 (-20%)

11.2 (-30%)

It's probably not dropping on Saturday. Even Shazam managed to stay flat. 

[dakus]

I don't see how you get a 53M weekend off of an 18-20M Friday. Seems they expect it to be extremely frontloaded

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Canada has around 1/10 of population and fewer than 1/10 of movie screens. So the BO makes sense.

 

 

yeah the Canadian Market is controlled by Cineplex that has more then an 80% market share in this country. 

 

Like  I am in a city of 620,000 people and there are only 2 theaters. 

[Alli]

true friday would be like 14M. those numbers include previews

Edited May 10, 2019 by Alli

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

I don't see how you get a 53M weekend off of an 18-20M Friday. Seems they expect it to be extremely frontloaded

Shazam did $53.5m off a $20.45mm Friday (with 5.9m previews)

 

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Shazam did $53.5m off a $20.45mm Friday (with 5.9m previews)

 

 

Still I’d imagine Shazam was less kid friendly or having less walk ups than Detective Pikachu

[Alli]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Still I’d imagine Shazam was less kid friendly or having less walk ups than Detective Pikachu

pika fanbase is bigger.    nobody has heard of shazam

[Brainbug]

Remember that those ridiculous 4 pm "Preview" showings will skew the picture a bit probably. Woudnt be surprised by a slightly weaker Sat jump because of that.

[MrPink]

Well there was also the added caveat of Shazam having an additional 3.3m in previews prior to release, so previews/OW ratio are skewed by that in some way.

[YM!]

Just now, Alli said:

pika fanbase is bigger.    nobody has heard of shazam

I’d argue the DC fanbase is bigger and Pikachu is rated PG.

[Cappoedameron]

7 minutes ago, dakus said:

I don't see how you get a 53M weekend off of an 18-20M Friday. Seems they expect it to be extremely frontloaded

They're predictions for Pika are off, by how much we'll have to see but they're off. The day families go to the cinemas is Saturday and Pika is likely gonna be extremely walk up friendly for those families.

[SpiderByte]

Sounds like pika pika locked for #2