Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[keysersoze123]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’d argue the DC fanbase is bigger and Pikachu is rated PG.

Wut. DC fanbase bigger than Pokemon? Didn't we just post that Pokemon is biggest franchise by revenue? I doubt that. Plus a movie like shazam who is like 3rd level DC hero that is not a Batman or a Joker level to be popular.

 

Movie rating has nothing to do with popularity.

[SoSaysI]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Still I’d imagine Shazam was less kid friendly or having less walk ups than Detective Pikachu

If that Friday number is right it’s playing incredibly similar to Shazam

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Well there was also the added caveat of Shazam having an additional 3.3m in previews prior to release, so previews/OW ratio are skewed by that in some way.

were those 3.3 previews added to friday's gross?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Sounds like pika pika locked for #2 

 

I mean i dont even like the term "locked" to begin with, but the only thing we have right now are the 3 pm Deadline estimates.

 

I woundt ever "lock" anything based on that.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Alli said:

were those 3.3 previews added to friday's gross?

No, they were separated

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, dakus said:

I don't see how you get a 53M weekend off of an 18-20M Friday. Seems they expect it to be extremely frontloaded

To be fair, the other Pokemon movies were pretty frontloaded too. Pokemon 2000's OW had a OW/OD ratio of about 2.13x. Then using OW to total, that's about 2.2x. The First Movie also made almost 60% of its final gross in its first 5 days. Even today, that's absurdly frontloaded. And these movies came out at a time when multipliers were a lot bigger than they are now.

 

I know somebody's going to argue, "those movies were based off the anime, so it's different," but...it's still a Pokemon movie. Why would this being live-action suddenly make it any different multiplier wise?

 

(btw I don't think it'll be that frontloaded. I just think there's precedence here)

[MrPink]

Just now, Alli said:

were those 3.3 previews added to friday's gross?

 

No, it was just a separate gross tacked on. However, I think it's safe to assume the vast majority of those people who saw those sneaks would have saw it OW. The question is whether the majority of that gross would have saw it on Thursday, or elsewhere. The point is, if a lot of those people who went to those sneaks would have ended up seeing it on Thursday, then it's entirely possible Shazam was more frontloaded than suggested that OW. And I'm not saying that with scientific evidence, just that it probably messes things around.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wut. DC fanbase bigger than Pokemon? Didn't we just post that Pokemon is biggest franchise by revenue? I doubt that. Plus a movie like shazam who is like 3rd level DC hero that is not a Batman or a Joker level to be popular.

 

Movie rating has nothing to do with popularity.

Still would you expect a Hello Kitty movie to about the same as Shazam? HK IIRC is number two on that list.

 

Of course a movie rating has nothing to with popularity I meant as in walkups for Saturday as I imagine more parents would spring for the PG movie.

 

But then again it is showing to be acting different from traditional family/Animation on OW.

[filmlover]

The numbers for Pikachu (though Endgame will win the weekend) and The Hustle seem almost about right to me. Looks like the poor reviews killed Poms (unsurprising considering its target audience of grandmas actually pays close attention to those). Better than I expected for Tolkien if that holds up tbh. Hopefully that drop for Long Shot holds up.

[keysersoze123]

So with 20 m friday the weekend is like

5.7 m previews
14.3m Friday
18.5m Saturday ( 30% increase)
15m Sunday ( soft drop bcos of Mother’s day)

53.5m OW. That is very good on the part of Deadline whose extrapolation is normally all over the place.

[Porthos]

Umm... Don't look now, but the Video Game Curse is rearing its ugly head over at Rotten Tomatoes all of a sudden.

 

Pika Pika dropped to 63 (5.94/10) over there after a ton of reviews were added. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Claudio]

Endgame to become WW champion 4 weeks in a row?

[andrewgr]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wut. DC fanbase bigger than Pokemon? Didn't we just post that Pokemon is biggest franchise by revenue? I doubt that. Plus a movie like shazam who is like 3rd level DC hero that is not a Batman or a Joker level to be popular.

 

Movie rating has nothing to do with popularity.

It's not possible to calculate the largest franchise by revenue, but I can assure you it's not Pokemon.  The list on wikipedia that everyone cites is pure nonsense; examples include not counting the Star Wars TV shows for Star Wars, not counting any Marvel Comic Books for Marvel, not counting any Spider-Man games or movies for Marvel, etc.   The list of absurdities goes on and on. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Umm... Don't look now, but the Video Game Curse is rearing its ugly head over at Rotten Tomatoes all of a sudden.

 

Pika Pika dropped to 63 (5.94/10) over there after a ton of reviews were added. 

Initial Audience score (I KNOW.  Trust me, more than most folks on this board... I KNOW) looks pretty decent though:

 

Pops in initially at 87% (4.2/5)

Edited May 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Alli]

i trust imdb audience score more than RT.   since the changes on RT, the sample is really low

Edited May 10, 2019 by Alli

[AJG]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Initial Audience score (I KNOW.  Trust me, more than most folks on this board... I KNOW) looks pretty decent though:

 

Pops in at 87% (4.2/5)

 

Cmon man, you know too damn well about that audience score.

[Porthos]

Just now, Alli said:

i trust imdb audience score more than RT.   And since the changes on RT, the sample is really low

IMDB is just as bad, IMO, so I don't 'trust' any of them. Can note it though, especially to see if it was getting bombed by angry reviewers.

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Umm... Don't look now, but the Video Game Curse is rearing its ugly head over at Rotten Tomatoes all of a sudden.

 

Pika Pika dropped to 63 (5.94/10) over there after a ton of reviews were added. 

FUCK!!!

[AJG]

Just now, Alli said:

i trust imdb audience score more than RT.   And since the changes on RT, the sample is really low

 

Google’s percentage is also quite good.

 

IMDb remains king though.

 

Metacritic is a waste of time. If it wasn’t for gamers flat out decimating their ratings system that site would be far bigger.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

 

Cmon man, you know too damn well about that audience score.

Just addressed this.  Hell, I addressed it in my post.

 

But just because something has little value doesn't mean it has no value. If anything, I was curious to see if it was going to get review bombed.  So far, it hasn't.

 

That more than anything is what I was commenting on.