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Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

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So now it’s coming in under the Tracking? Looks like we have have couple of people learning a valuable lesson in looking at the data without their emotions taking over. 

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4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Pikachu is not going to be an underperformer. It's going to do amazing business for a video game movie. only reason why it will underperform is because some of you guys had outlandish and ridiculous ideas for what it could do.

Doesn’t it have an 150 million production budget, before marketing costs ? Does a studio invest almost 250 million $$ for this kind of results ? I mean taken as what it is, a Pokémon film, it isn’t doing bad but i wonder what the studio’s expectations were to make such a big financial investment.

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5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Why would you make a Pokemon movie and not get Michael Bay to direct? 

Because they wanted it to be good. 

 

And also didn't want to sexualize 15 year old girls.

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Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

So now it’s coming in under the Tracking? Looks like we have have couple of people learning a valuable lesson in looking at the data without their emotions taking over. 

No the tracking range was 50-70 million.

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5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Why would you make a Pokemon movie and not get Michael Bay to direct? 

Well, his next movie is with Ryan Reynolds (6 Underground, landing on Netflix later this year), so there's that.

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9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Pikachu is not going to be an underperformer. It's going to do amazing business for a video game movie. only reason why it will underperform is because some of you guys had outlandish and ridiculous ideas for what it could do.

Compared to genre: doing good   

Compared to budget: ...    

 

I mean, it should make a little profit, so that’s certainly better than the alternative, but doesn’t seem like the ROI will be that great.

Edited by Thanos Legion

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I'm skeptical of Deadline's $70M number for Endgame. Even if it follows IW's path, that's $67.6M; but it has had worse holds than IW during four of the last seven days so holding worse than IW seems likely. Plus, IW faced openers grossing about $36M whereas Endgame is looking at openers racking up twice that amount. Then there is the direct competition from Pikachu during the daytime on Saturday and Sunday, which has been Endgame's gravy train. 

 

Sure, Endgame could have a strong weekend and hit that $70M number. However, I'm now thinking it will end up closer to $60M than to $70M. I have no idea where Pikachu will land for the weekend until we see the matinee crowds on Saturday. It could suffer from the Thursday/Friday rush factor or families could turn out in big numbers. If families do turn out over the weekend, the spread between Endgame and Pika could definitely be less than $10M, maybe even less than $5M.

Edited by LonePirate
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Next Pokemon movie: A 10 year-old boy from a small town fights his way to challenge the Pokemon League.

Sequel to this one: Same story as the last one, just with more explosion. Directed by Michael Bay.

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So, I did a little checking of future presale sets for May at my 2 locals...and you can tell it's still a tight month, and that past movies did have an effect on future ones...

 

Biggest surprise - for now, Aladdin is only getting allocated 1 screen at 1 local and 1.5 at the other (with the extra 1/2 as night shows)...back in December, MP2 had 3-4 at each to start...and Dumbo had 2+ to start...so even if you don't think audiences will be effected by past quality and performance of these live actions, it obviously is affecting theater sets - there seems to be a "put up the presales or shut up" for Aladdin in effect...

 

Good for Godzilla - one local actually has given it 2 screens (the other 1), so it won't go down from there:)...I would have thought they'd have each just put up a single screen and watched presales for this for at least a week, but that one theater must be confident...

 

John Wick 3 is still sitting at 1 screen at each...here's hoping it gets booked an extra screen when full schedules come out this week - I have a feeling this weekend's performances for the 2 big movies will play almost as big a role in deciding on the 2nd screen as presales for JW3 will...but without a 2nd screen, lots of folks on here might have to tone down the expectations:)...

 

All other May movies are single screened, or if small enough, not even booked for presales (and possibly not even getting booked:)...

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46 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I mean i dont even like the term "locked" to begin with, but the only thing we have right now are the 3 pm Deadline estimates.

 

I woundt ever "lock" anything based on that.

Look man I just want to be able to post sad gifs of Pikachu, let me have this

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2 minutes ago, youcantseemyname said:

Next Pokemon movie: A 10 year-old boy from a small town fights his way to challenge the Pokemon League.

Sequel to this one: Same story as the last one, just with more explosion. Directed by Michael Bay.

 

I’ve seen the film. It feels like they were mandated to not have Pokemon fight each other in battles as we know it. 

Hence why we got this Detective movie rather than something a bit more expected.

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12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No the tracking range was 50-70 million.

but but BOP says 80m. It’ll do 80m

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3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

but but BOP says 80m. It’ll do 80m

That's the only good thing about this.

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5 minutes ago, MrGamer said:

Is it doomsaying o’clock already?

It's (almost) five o'clock somewhere.

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32 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

John Wick's Gonna lay a beatdown on Thanos.  It's inevitable. 

Chapter 2 only made $41M WW opening and I predict Endgame to still raking in about $80M WW on weekend 4. So it needs to double that amount to beat Endgame. Still a possibility with better than expected US debut + different release pattern. But,  I would say that the odds still in Endgame’s favor.

Edited by Claudio
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33 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

John Wick's Gonna lay a beatdown on Thanos.  It's inevitable. 

Thus the lesson of the day is that Don't mess with John Wick's dog, even if you are the Mad Titan. 😛

Edited by ScoobyDoo21
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6 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Chapter 2 only made $41M WW opening and I predict Endgame to still raking in about $80M WW on weekend 4. So it needs to double that amount to beat Endgame. Still a possibility with better than expected US debut + different release pattern. But,  I would say that the odds still in Endgame’s favor.

Chapter 3 is likely gonna open in the US higher than the WW opening of Chapter 2.

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I’m feel as if I’m forcing myself to see this Aladdin movie. I want to see it, I just don’t want to leave my house to see it.

 

im seeing John Wick immediately after work on Wednesday though.

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Kinda disappointed in Pikachu. I was predicting an opening north of 80 million and while it may be early, it'll end up being in the 50 million range, which is still good, but big gargantuan opening weekends have spoiled me and this one should have easily cleared 100 million in its opening weekend.

 

 

It's likely not going to be a big threat to Aladdin anymore.

Edited by Yandereprime101189

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