Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[Lordmandeep]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The biggest testament to the power of that movie flopping is Charlie Hunnam becoming a fan of Jordan Peterson. 

 

 

so he will learn to clean his room at least 😅

 

 

I actually sort of know Jordan Peterson before he was popular (I went to the University of Toronto)  and I find he has become a boogeyman making him more famous then he should have ever become. He was just a professor that was known for wacky lectures lol. 

 

Now he sells out a 3200 seat theater  in minutes to watch him debate people...

 

😶 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Aladdin's really weird from my PoV.  It's been running stronger than Pika PIka literally every step of the way, except for one day when I shifted from x days of pre-sales to x days before release (it was stronger on the 'x days of pre-sales metric, a bit weaker on the 'x days before release' one).  

 

But gotta tell you, the worst day it had otherwise in comparison was yesterday, the same day it the first social media reactions came in.  It barely beat out Pika Pika at the same point in time.

 

It is only one day, but little worried that a tepid reaction might stall the flick when it comes to pre-sales.

 

Could be folks with long memories of the buzz out of last year's CinemaCon + the reaction to the first teaser trailer might be getting second thoughts.  Or it could just be random variation.

 

Very curious how to see it plays out as more reactions come in.  Also curious to see if the phenomenon of women tending to buy pre-sale tickets more than men for some films comes into play or not.

I have to wonder if your area just liked Aladdin more for some reason. In the tracking thread there's this weird divide between you, filmlover, and one other person whose name I forget who's also in a Cali area ((Sorry whoever this is)) and mine, Nova, and a few other people's areas. Is it possible that places with a Disney park close-ish are getting bumps? That's the only correlation I can see.

[Yandereprime101189]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Aladdin's really weird from my PoV.  It's been running stronger than Pika PIka literally every step of the way, except for one day when I shifted from x days of pre-sales to x days before release (it was stronger on the 'x days of pre-sales' metric, a bit weaker on the 'x days before release' one).  

 

But gotta tell you, the worst day it had otherwise in comparison was yesterday, the same day it the first social media reactions came in.  It barely beat out Pika Pika at the same point in time.

 

It is only one day, but little worried that a tepid reaction might stall the flick when it comes to pre-sales.

 

Could be folks with long memories of the bad buzz out of last year's CinemaCon + the reaction to the first teaser trailer might be getting second thoughts.  Or it could just be random variation.

 

Very curious how to see it plays out as more reactions come in.  Also curious to see if the phenomenon of women tending to buy pre-sale tickets more than men for some films comes into play or not.

 

tl;dr edited in:  Aladdin was doing pretty decently all things considered.  Until yesterday.  Now I'm getting a bit more worried. 

 

To be fair, I don't really think any of the big name critics even got a chance to see it yet and most of the ones we see reactions to are just small time/random people.

 

Could it get hammered, probably, but for now. . .we wait.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Far From Home should have just opened June 28th...

 

Take advantage of Canada Day weekend and an extended 2nd weekend. 

Yeah. I agree here. Not sure why it didn't honestly. High OW proper followed enormous weekdays into holiday weekend of 4th of July.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I have to wonder if your area just liked Aladdin more for some reason. In the tracking thread there's this weird divide between you, filmlover, and one other person whose name I forget who's also in a Cali area ((Sorry whoever this is)) and mine, Nova, and a few other people's areas. Is it possible that places with a Disney park close-ish are getting bumps? That's the only correlation I can see.

Well, we're not THAT close (410 miles away), but I see your point.  I understand that it was kinda bombing in Seattle for awhile, for instance.

 

But even with it doing decently (and I do mean the word 'decently'), it still wasn't setting the roof on fire locally.  Still well behind all the films I've tracked except Pika Pika.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yeah. I agree here. Not sure why it didn't honestly. High OW proper followed enormous weekdays into holiday weekend of 4th of July.

 

 

yeah and there is no big release that weekend either. 

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Well, we're not THAT close (410 miles away), but I see your point.  I understand that it was kinda bombing in Seattle for awhile, for instance.

 

But even with it doing decently (and I do mean the word 'decently'), it still wasn't setting the roof on fire locally.  Still well behind all the films I've tracked except Pika Pika.

Would line up with the 60 million tracking if Pika Pika ends up in the 50s range.

[cookie]

Aladdin's selling pretty decently here. 12 days out and Wednesday 6 P.M showing about 20% full.

 

And it looks like all three May releases (Pika, Aladdin, Godzilla) are getting an 11 rating so pre-sales should be somewhat comparable.

Edited May 10, 2019 by cookie

[JB33]

I'm pretty surprised. Thought the multiplier would be better and Pika's OD would be bigger than that. I figured on a $70M OW for awhile now.

 

Oh well. Hoping for really good legs. We need a new franchise to spice things up.

[JB33]

As for Endgame, futile as it may be, I'm still holding out hope for a $70M+ weekend. Why would it be though? That would be randomly good after the drops this week.

 

$60M+ it is then.

[LonePirate]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-spider-man-far-from-home-looks-to-web-200m-6-day-domestic-launch-in-july/

 

Rocketman: 40 (+8%)/165

I find both of those numbers difficult to believe. Is this based on the performance of A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody? Are moviegoers craving another musical? I would be shocked if the film reaches half of those numbers.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Aladdin's biggest threat is itself.

Or maybe WOM. I can see it having a big opening weekend, but then, if Ritchie was as poor a choice for director as many of us suspect, it does a BvS  and has it legs badly damaged.

What happened with King Arthur shows that Fantasy is not exactly Ritchie's strong point.

I love the Guy Ritchie who made those great crime drams back in the late 90's and early 2000's;but Ritchie trying to be another Spielberg I don't like very much.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

We've shifted from the Pikachu stans trying to will 100 million into existence against all logic, to the Aladdin stans trying to will 100 million into existence.

I'm hoping for 75 ATM..

 

 

[Mulder]

Just now, cdsacken said:

I'm hoping for 75 ATM..

 

 

3 day or 4 day? It's almost definitely hitting that with the 4 day. 3 day....maybe

[dudalb]

6 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

I find both of those numbers difficult to believe. Is this based on the performance of A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody? Are moviegoers craving another musical? I would be shocked if the film reaches half of those numbers.

I think it's based on Bohemian Rhapsody a lot more then Star. It's another biography of a rock musician coming after one was a huge hit.

[Krissykins]

Search “Naomi Scott” or “Graham Norton” on Twitter. Trending in the UK for all the wrong reasons. 

 

She comes off as extremely annoying. Yikes 

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Are moviegoers craving another musical?

Yes. We should go back the golden era where we get one a week.  Everything should be a musical. Godzilla. John Wick. Pika Pika. EVERYTHING 

[Alli]

richie is allowed to make something different than his crime movies. why are fans so adverse to change

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Search “Naomi Scott” or “Graham Norton” on Twitter. Trending in the UK for all the wrong reasons. 

 

She comes off as extremely annoying. Yikes 

wow...people are really hatin on her lol

[TServo2049]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Yes. We should go back the golden era where we get one a week.  Everything should be a musical. Godzilla. John Wick. Pika Pika. EVERYTHING 

Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark: THE MOVIE.

 

Kevin Feige, Avi Arad, Amy Pascal, whoever, MAKE. THIS. HAPPEN.

Edited May 10, 2019 by TServo2049