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Godzilla is not King of Monsters | UNDER $60m OW | MERGED THREAD | NOT TRYING TO SAY "I TOLD YOU SO" BUT...

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On 5/13/2019 at 12:56 AM, kaijukurt said:

 

I dont think Godzilla can become a public domain character because hes not a literary character? As a film creation hes owned by Toho Studios. 

 

On 5/13/2019 at 12:57 AM, Mulder said:

By Public Domain law, Godzilla can not unless the law is changed. It's why Mickey Mouse is fine.

You both are incorrect. First, there is absolutely no distinction between literary characters and fictional characters from cartoons or films or comic books. A fictional character is a fictional character.

 

Secondly, the copyright for Mickey Mouse runs out in 2023. Disney, by use of their financial power, has literally bought copyright extension laws that have kept the character from already becoming public domain. Will they successfully extend it again? The US government is very corrupt and susceptible to lobbying and special interests, so it could happen for sure. It is not guaranteed, though.

 

Either way, someday Mickey Mouse and Godzilla will become public domain. It is an eventuality. We may not be alive to see it, but it will happen.

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4 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

You both are incorrect. First, there is absolutely no distinction between literary characters and fictional characters from cartoons or films or comic books. A fictional character is a fictional character.

 

Secondly, the copyright for Mickey Mouse runs out in 2023. Disney, by use of their financial power, has literally bought copyright extension laws that have kept the character from already becoming public domain. Will they successfully extend it again? The US government is very corrupt and susceptible to lobbying and special interests, so it could happen for sure. It is not guaranteed, though.

 

Either way, someday Mickey Mouse and Godzilla will become public domain. It is an eventuality. We may not be alive to see it, but it will happen.

My god dude let it go.

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Since the threads merged, I don't know up and down.  So.

 

I'm Out.  I think it will make more than 60W.

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2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

My god dude let it go.

never-give-up-never-surrender-quote-1.jp

 

I'm a stickler for details

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Just now, doublejack said:

never-give-up-never-surrender-quote-1.jp

 

I'm a stickler for details

Yet you ignore pre-sale details.  🤔

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22 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yet you ignore pre-sale details.  🤔

No, I don't. I'm interpreting them differently than you do, but not ignoring. I do not see strong enough pre-sales for KotM to believe it will easily surpass 60M. I think it is going to be in that range, but fall just below it. If the movie has something like a 70M OW then I will be surprised.

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Just now, doublejack said:

No, I don't. I'm interpreting them differently than you do, but not ignoring. I do not see strong enough pre-sales for KotM to believe it will easily surpass 60M. I think it is going to be in that range, but fall just below it. If the movie has something like a 70M OW then I will be surprised.

You basically just said 'alternative facts'. You can't interpret numbers differently my guy.

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11 minutes ago, doublejack said:

No, I don't. I'm interpreting them differently than you do, but not ignoring. I do not see strong enough pre-sales for KotM to believe it will easily surpass 60M. I think it is going to be in that range, but fall just below it. If the movie has something like a 70M OW then I will be surprised.

 

On 5/12/2019 at 5:45 PM, doublejack said:

I'm IN.

 

I don't think this genre has a big fan base, and it is trending the wrong direction. PRU could not reach the original PR numbers. If GKOTM does turn out better than G-2014 and receives a good reception, I think that fixes the lack of legs issue that the predecessor suffered from. However, I don't see how that will help OW.

 

So, I'm thinking something like 40-45M OW, with a very good chance it is under 60M.

🤔

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

You both are incorrect. First, there is absolutely no distinction between literary characters and fictional characters from cartoons or films or comic books. A fictional character is a fictional character.

 

Either way, someday Mickey Mouse and Godzilla will become public domain. It is an eventuality. We may not be alive to see it, but it will happen.

 

Thanks for this, I stand corrected!!

 

The thought of icons like Mickey, Batman, and the Star Wars characters becoming public doman is mind-boggling, to say the least.

 

IMO though, the eventuality lies in the deadline date for a legal battle to extend copyright, not necessarily the conclusion that they will indeed become public domain. Who knows what Disney, Toho will resort to in order to keep that from happening. But thats a story for a much, much, later time. 😉

Edited by kaijukurt

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Just now, kaijukurt said:

 

Thanks for this, I stand corrected!!

 

The thought of icons like Mickey, Batman, and the Star Wars characters becoming public doman is mind-boggling, to say the least.

 

IMO though, the eventuality lies in the deadline date for a legal battle to extend copyright, not necessarily the conclusion that they will indeed become public domain. Who knows what Disney, Toho will resort to in order to keep that from happening 😉

Though I do think he's wrong because Dracula and Sherlock Holmes only entered the public domain once the Estates of Bram Stoker and Arthur Conan Doyle got dissolved. This is why for example, Peter Pan is still copywritten. Iirc there's a loophole where if you have an estate running your fictional property it's only until that estate gets dissolved that they enter public domain.

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48 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You basically just said 'alternative facts'. You can't interpret numbers differently my guy.

No, not alternative facts. Nice try at a straw man though.

Pre-sales only tell so much about a movie's OW. My inclination is that KotM will be pre-sale heavy and have poor walk up business, in relation to the average film.

 

So, since you study pre-sales so heavily then I'm sure you are aware Endgame did about 3x the pre-sales that Infinity War did, right? So did that mean 3x the weekend? Obviously the raw pre-sale number only says so much.

 

38 minutes ago, Mulder said:

 

🤔

 

The tracking for the movie moved from 50M to 54M, hence my increased expectation. I'm also factoring in that pre-sale number that you're so into. 60% of CM gives about a 56M weekend. I think that's a realistic target for KotM, just over DP.

 

32 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Though I do think he's wrong because Dracula and Sherlock Holmes only entered the public domain once the Estates of Bram Stoker and Arthur Conan Doyle got dissolved. This is why for example, Peter Pan is still copywritten. Iirc there's a loophole where if you have an estate running your fictional property it's only until that estate gets dissolved that they enter public domain.

Dude, Peter Pan is in the public domain in most of the world. You should really spend a few minutes learning about copyright law before trying to assert authority on the subject.

 

Peter and Wendy wikipedia page

 

Key quote about the Peter Pan copyright in the us: "

Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) claims that U.S. legislation effective in 1978 and again in 1998, which extended the copyright of the play script published in 1928, gives them copyright over "Peter Pan" in general until 2023, although GOSH acknowledges that the copyright of the novel version, published in 1911, has expired in the United States.[25]

Previously, GOSH's claim of U.S. copyright had been contested by various parties. J. E. Somma sued GOSH to permit the U.S. publication of her sequel After the Rain, A New Adventure for Peter Pan. GOSH and Somma settled out of court in March 2004, issuing a joint statement in which GOSH stated the work is a valuable contribution to the field of children's literature. Somma characterised her novel – which she had argued was a critique of the original work, rather than a mere derivative of it – as fair use of the hospital's U.S. intellectual property rights. The suit was settled under terms of absolute secrecy. It did not set any legal precedent, however.[26] Disney was a long-time licensee to the animation rights, and cooperated with the hospital when its copyright claim was clear, but in 2004 Disney published Dave Barry's and Ridley Pearson's Peter and the Starcatchers in the U.S., the first of several sequels, without permission and without making royalty payments"

 

 

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Just now, doublejack said:

No, not alternative facts. Nice try at a straw man though.

Pre-sales only tell so much about a movie's OW. My inclination is that KotM will be pre-sale heavy and have poor walk up business, in relation to the average film.

 

So, since you study pre-sales so heavily then I'm sure you are aware Endgame did about 3x the pre-sales that Infinity War did, right? So did that mean 3x the weekend? Obviously the raw pre-sale number only says so much.

 

 

The tracking for the movie moved from 50M to 54M, hence my increased expectation. I'm also factoring in that pre-sale number that you're so into. 60% of CM gives about a 56M weekend. I think that's a realistic target for KotM, just over DP.

 

Dude, Peter Pan is in the public domain in most of the world. You should really spend a few minutes learning about copyright law before trying to assert authority on the subject.

 

Peter and Wendy wikipedia page

 

Key quote about the Peter Pan copyright in the us: "

Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) claims that U.S. legislation effective in 1978 and again in 1998, which extended the copyright of the play script published in 1928, gives them copyright over "Peter Pan" in general until 2023, although GOSH acknowledges that the copyright of the novel version, published in 1911, has expired in the United States.[25]

Previously, GOSH's claim of U.S. copyright had been contested by various parties. J. E. Somma sued GOSH to permit the U.S. publication of her sequel After the Rain, A New Adventure for Peter Pan. GOSH and Somma settled out of court in March 2004, issuing a joint statement in which GOSH stated the work is a valuable contribution to the field of children's literature. Somma characterised her novel – which she had argued was a critique of the original work, rather than a mere derivative of it – as fair use of the hospital's U.S. intellectual property rights. The suit was settled under terms of absolute secrecy. It did not set any legal precedent, however.[26] Disney was a long-time licensee to the animation rights, and cooperated with the hospital when its copyright claim was clear, but in 2004 Disney published Dave Barry's and Ridley Pearson's Peter and the Starcatchers in the U.S., the first of several sequels, without permission and without making royalty payments"

 

 

1. Actually Monster Movies are walk-up heavy as we've been discussing in the Tracking thread if you read it rather then trying to make yourself look like you know what you're talking about. If you actually read that number CoolEric provided as well it was, in that point in time not in total and he himself expects it to rise. No not every pre-sale is the same, it's why you go on a case by case basis my guy.

2. No Peter Pan is still technically owned by that hospital, they just don't pursue claims over it. 

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7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

1. Actually Monster Movies are walk-up heavy as we've been discussing in the Tracking thread if you read it rather then trying to make yourself look like you know what you're talking about. If you actually read that number CoolEric provided as well it was, in that point in time not in total and he himself expects it to rise. No not every pre-sale is the same, it's why you go on a case by case basis my guy.

2. No Peter Pan is still technically owned by that hospital, they just don't pursue claims over it. 

We'll see on the first point. I believe the Godzilla fanboys are inflating the pre-sales somewhat. This is not an exact science.

On the second point, you are correct only in terms of the UK. Basically everywhere else Peter Pan is public domain. Also, what you posted earlier about estates needing to be dissolved for a character to become public domain is wrong. The date of first appearance of the character and the date the creator died are the two important factors. That's it.

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Just now, doublejack said:

We'll see on the first point. I believe the Godzilla fanboys are inflating the pre-sales somewhat. This is not an exact science.

On the second point, you are correct only in terms of the UK. Basically everywhere else Peter Pan is public domain. Also, what you posted earlier about estates needing to be dissolved for a character to become public domain is wrong. The date of first appearance of the character and the date the creator died are the two important factors. That's it.

Dracula became public domain once Bram Stoker's wife died. Not when Dracula was released. Otherwise Dracula wouldn't have entered the Public Domain until literally 1997 when the reason why Dracula was able to get so many knock-offs was Bram Stoker's wife no longer tending to the estate. It's why Nosferatu is Nosferatu and not Dracula. Also a copyright claim is valid almost everywhere. It's why Tsuburya Productions won the case against a Chinese company that was using Ultraman without permission, and why Toho is able to sue Godzilla usage that is not under their approval. As for the first point lmao no, that's not what's happening. If that was the case you would've seen massive pre-sales for Kong: Skull Island as well and this fanbase is no where near strong enough. Nor does this continued growth suggest a fan rush as @Porthos can attest to.

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Fuck. I didnt notice all these replies. Since the clubs got merged I no longer get notifications of comments. I'll update in the morning. 😴

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1 minute ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Fuck. I didnt notice all these replies. Since the clubs got merged I no longer get notifications of comments. I'll update in the morning. 😴

Just follow the thread.

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Out.  The complaints about the original largely centered around the lack of monster screen time in the movie.  This seems like it fixes that issue pretty well and the trailers look spectacular to me.

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Posted (edited)

Yesss, I remember all the comments about how JW2 wasn't going to be walk up based as well, owing to the massive 200m OW of its predecessor.

 

Spoiler

What's that?  I made some of those comments?  No no, you see, I was wondering if that was the case.  As well as speculating that a film that did 200m in its previous entry surely was getting some sort pre-sale boost.

 

Wondering and making hypotheticals is totes different.  Honest!

 

===

 

Look, I can get the skepticism.  But JW2, JW-FUCKING 2- was still massively walk up based, despite it's immediate predecessor coming off a 200m OW AND being part of a massive brand.

 

Until I am given a strong reason to think otherwise, I am going to presume that KotM is going to follow a similar pattern to films like JW2.  

 

Not the same pattern.  A similar one.  And right now it's pacing at about, oh let's say 7m in previews, more or less (according to Sacramento data comped against JW2).  Not quite half of JW2's 15.1.

 

It's still very early in KotM's pre-sale run, so take that number with a massive grain of salt.  Hell take several massive grains of salt.  But if KotM does do around 7m to 8m in previews, really thinking that 60m+ is pretty likely.

Edited by Porthos
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