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charlie Jatinder

Wednesday (5/16) Early Estimates.

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7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'm emphasizing that the DOM market has been in decline for decades and could seriously affect WW grosses in the future.

Attendance has been, but in its place we have inflation and the movies are seeing more theaters and screens with high premiums formats. 

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1. Call me a purist prude if you will, but I prefer to talk about musicians and singers on music related sites and not movie related sites.

 

2. I long for the day when we are not endlessly and repetitively debating the Endgame vs. Avatar dick measuring contest.

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13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I'm emphasizing that the DOM market has been in decline for decades and could seriously affect WW grosses in the future.

Ok, you've made this strange statement several times so I want to point out a few things.

1. GWTW only sold that many tickets because it constantly got re-released. Titanic and ET did better in their initial runs. GWTW is great, but it's run isn't some sort of run to end all runs, and it doesn't prove that DOM market has been in decline for decades.

2. DOM market has not been in decline for decades, the total amount of tickets sold peaked in 2002, and has been decreasingly but seemed to more or less stabilized in the last few years. 

3. Even though the amount of tickets sold isn't at its highest ever, inflation still managed to make sure box office grosses is increasing, and it never really stopped increasing domestically...

4. Even if Domestic market follows Japan/Germany trend in the future (which I don't see anytime soon), stabilizing to declining, it's very unlikely that it would be drastic enough to offset large growth everywhere else in the world. 

Edited by NCsoft
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34 minutes ago, I Am said:

This continuing to be ignored has me in my feels, still. ☺️

Endgame has already made more money in China than all the movies listed in that link... so yeah, your argument is actually wrong. There is verifiable, undeniable proof that the chinese still eat up hollywood  movies (Marvel movies, Fast and Furious movies, Jurassic World etc)  despite having their own robust movie industry.

 

As for Africa, there is currently limited data but based on what we know, there's nothing that indicates that they wouldn't watch hollywood movies like  everywhere else in the world. Nigeria for example (my country) produces hundreds of movies every year yet HW still tops most years.

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6 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I was thinking there would be Wednesday numbers in the Wednesday numbers thread.

 

I was very wrong....

Slightly bigger drop than hoped for. Really hoping for 30+ weekend. I amended my range to 29.5-32.5. If Thursday is worse than 3.25 I probably will amend to 28.5-31.5

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2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Ok, you've made this strange statement several times so I want to point out a few things.

1. GWTW only sold that many tickets because it constantly got re-released. Titanic and ET did better in their initial runs. GWTW is great, but it's run isn't some sort of run to end all runs, and it doesn't prove that DOM market has been in decline for decades.

2. DOM market has not been in decline for decades, the total amount of tickets sold peaked in 2002, and has been decreasingly but seemed to more or less stabilized in the last few years. 

3. Even though the amount of tickets sold isn't at its highest ever, inflation still managed to make sure box office grosses is increasing, and it never really stopped increasing domestically...

4. Even if Domestic market follows Japan/Germany trend in the future (which I don't see anytime soon), stabilizing to declining, it's very unlikely that it would be drastic enough to offset large growth everywhere else in the world. 

This is not accurate. Let's agree to disagree.

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1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

1. Call me a purist prude if you will, but I prefer to talk about musicians and singers on music related sites and not movie related sites.

 

2. I long for the day when we are not endlessly and repetitively debating the Endgame vs. Avatar dick measuring contest.

Use the Endgame OS thread to track A vs A:E. I dont give a crap about the music talk. Plus we should stop discussing Endgame legs. its beaten to death.

 

That said just glanced at NYC theaters which have been among the best performances. its hit hard today. Losing so many prime shows at AMC Empire and have fewer peak time shows at top theaters where it has had great run. its keeping Lincoln Square and AMC Metreon in SF and peak shows are doing good(especially Lincoln Square imax). I am thinking low teens drop at minimum. Close to 3.25-3.3m thursday.

 

More I analyze more I struggle to see it beat IW this weekend. Either way it does not matter as its going for a 850m run. That is a ridiculous number. It will keep domestic OW record for EONS.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I was thinking there would be Wednesday numbers in the Wednesday numbers thread.

 

I was very wrong....

Well , what did you expect from daily thread??

 

most of the time it’s always like ( except the late thread ) :

10%  number

90% random talks

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3 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Endgame has already made more money in China than all the movies listed in that link... so yeah, your argument is actually wrong. There is verifiable, undeniable proof that the chinese still eat up hollywood  movies (Marvel movies, Fast and Furious movies, Jurassic World etc)  despite having their own robust movie industry.

 

As for Africa, there is currently limited data but based on what we know, there's nothing that indicates that they wouldn't watch hollywood movies like  everywhere else in the world. Nigeria for example (my country, so I  produces hundreds of movies every year yet 

I actually just realized the other day that Nigeria an English speaking country (among many local languages), and the population is projected to grow beyond USA by about 2049 and keeps increasing beyond that. That's a lot of untapped box office potential for the more distant future!

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2 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Weekend thread should have lots to discuss with John wick 3 being number 1

Looking at the past weekend threads , I very much doubt that. Don’t get your hopes too high , buddy. It’s BOT after all. 

 

:sparta:

 

 

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Just now, NCsoft said:

I actually just realized the other day that Nigeria an English speaking country (among many local languages), and the population is projected to grow beyond USA by about 2049 and keeps increasing beyond that. That's a lot of untapped box office potential for the more distant future!

But the economy has to grow significantly to make it a BO power. its extremely chaotic environment. But we can hope South Africa and Nigeria would grow significantly.

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Just now, LonePirate said:

1. Call me a purist prude if you will, but I prefer to talk about musicians and singers on music related sites and not movie related sites.

 

2. I long for the day when we are not endlessly and repetitively debating the Endgame vs. Avatar dick measuring contest.

I can't for June and December to come around so we can talk about real movies. 

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33 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Endgame has already made more money in China than all the movies listed in that link... so yeah, your argument is actually wrong. There is verifiable, undeniable proof that the chinese still eat up hollywood  movies (Marvel movies, Fast and Furious movies, Jurassic World etc)  despite having their own robust movie industry.

 

As for Africa, there is currently limited data but based on what we know, there's nothing that indicates that they wouldn't watch hollywood movies like  everywhere else in the world. Nigeria for example (my country) produces hundreds of movies every year yet HW still tops most years.

So far, "Endgame" made more money than any movie ever except for "Avatar."

No one has denied that two or three Hollywood franchises have done well recently in China.

But this is an invalid comparison - exceptions don't make rules.

 

RULE would be that multiple Hollywood films make $600 million in China every year. But that's not the case.

The RULE is that Hollywood had a grip on the Chinese box office, and that grip is starting to come apart.

 

"The report cited data issued last week by box-office analyst Rance Pow, CEO of consultancy Artisan Gateway, saying total tickets sales in China for U.S. studio imports in the first nine months had fallen to 1.64 billion U.S. dollars from 2.17 billion dollars during the same period in 2017.

 

Pow explained that Hollywood's shortfall has been 'made up for by a surge in Chinese-language box office,' which jumped up 46.7 percent to 4.28 billion dollars during the same period from last year's 2.92 billion dollars.

 

Six films have earned more than 300 million dollars at the Chinese box office in 2018 to date, but only one, Marvel and Disney's Avengers: Infinity War which earned 359.5 million dollars, was from Hollywood.

 

Two factors contributed to the market shifts, the report said, including the increased quality of Chinese filmmaking and ongoing cinema construction in China's rural regions, which 'tend to be less cosmopolitan and less receptive to foreign content.'

 

'What we see is that as we go further and further into the rural markets, the box office indeed continues to grow, but most of that success is weighted in major Chinese-language films -- which means that Chinese tastes in film, and what sells big tickets, is becoming more and more local,' Pow said."

 

Your responses are not reflective of what is currently taking place, and that is that as the Chinese film industry begins to become on par with Hollywood, that will increase the amount of interest in Chinese movies and decrease the amount of interest in Hollywood movies. That a Transformers movie or a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie will still do well in this environment does not negate this fact. This, in turn, will decrease the likelihood that a Hollywood film will ever see three or more billion dollars.

 

Back to the US, audience attendance is in freefall - this is a fact - and to offset that, theater chains are releasing subscription services, but this is not resulting in increased revenue for studios and in fact may cause more damage than help.

 

"How much will AMC pay the studios?

The hangup for studios is that A-List pays studios a cut of admissions using a ticket price of $8.99. The problem? A-List members are probably going to see films in deluxe formats (since it doesn't cost extra), which carry a higher price. In fact, AMC's average ticket price was $9.32 in 2017 ($9.68 in domestic markets), with deluxe offerings in big-city markets being much higher. So studios will make less from a person seeing a film via A-List than if they'd seen it without the program.

 

AMC justified choosing the $8.99 by saying that is the figure used by the new monthly plan of rival Cinemark, which offers only one film per month and 20% off concessions (with unused tickets rolling over to the next month). The catch: Cinemark's average ticket price in 2017 was only $6.48 ($7.71 domestic), as it operates in smaller markets than AMC.  

 

Will studios go along or play hardball?

For all the hemming and hawing, it appears studio executives are not considering pulling their films from AMC. At least not yet. Remember: AMC Entertainment is the largest theater operator, so it has some leverage in these negotiations. It's also an open question as to how many people will actually sign up for A-List. If the numbers remain relatively small, it's possible studios won't put up a fight. Ironically, if AMC Stubs A-List is a hit, the studios may actually become a problem."

 

Lastly, it's not accurate to say that Hollywood films beat out Nollywood films, because Western box office sources are likely unable and unwilling to devote resources to measuring the revenue of local films, and have the ease of being able to rely directly on Hollywood studios for their numbers in hard to ascertain markets.

 

Do you reaallllllyyy think "The Wedding Party 2" only made $12,000??? 🙄

Come on, dude.

 

My ultimate point is that many people (including a lot with some weird agenda, I see now) are treating "Endgame" box office like a normal box office, and that is an inaccurate lens from which to view it through. Is it accurate to compare "Infinity War" drops to "Endgame" drops when "Endgame" caught up to "Infinity War" in a little over a week? I can see how fretting over the movie's legs can be worrisome if you believe there is an unlimited pool of money that any movie can make, but if we look at the reality of a limited pool, "Endgame" is just MUCH, much further along in its pace than all other movies at the same point.

Edited by I Am
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