Wednesday (5/16) Early Estimates.

[Minnale101]

STX took big blow the past 3 movies 

[cdsacken]

24 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

I can’t wait till movies box office will be measured in bitcoins

Thankfully it will never happen.

 

I'd like to buy movie ticket. That will be .0028 Bitcoin or .01 Bitcoin depending on the week

volatility of that investment is terrifying.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

29 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

So ENDGAME's drop is pretty good comparatively to the rest of the top 10.

It also had the lowest increase on Tuesday. Still think it will do 30+ this weekend. Endgame seems like more of a weekend movie. It kicks ass on weekends, especially Saturdays. 

[MrGamer]

6 hours ago, Shivampa2 said:

Hello, 

 

I am sorry for my past trolling and inciting franchise wars. I just want a second chance for real. No more alt nothing. 

 

@DeeCee  @AndyLL  @aabattery I have never spoken ill of anyone ever. I love box office tracking and participating in it. You can ban me now and I promise I will never come back. 

 

Please give me a last chance. I will never incite fan wars or do trolling again. 

 

Raegr 2.0

[Barnack]

24 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Thankfully it will never happen.

 

I'd like to buy movie ticket. That will be .0028 Bitcoin or .01 Bitcoin depending on the week

volatility of that investment is terrifying.

The way it is going (and the way developper own Bitcoin and are invested in it's value much more than it's usage), Bitcoin is much more replacing gold than dollar.

 

I imagine an other crypto is more likely to replace dollar than bitcoin if it is to happen.

 

 

[Clouseau]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

not final / not finished

For the drops... giving an impression

 

Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday May 15, 2019

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Avengers: Endgame	Walt Disney	$3,788,021	-34%	4,662	$813	$737,978,374	20
2	(2)	Pokémon: Detective Pikachu	Warner Bros.	$3,100,000	-42%	4,202	$738	$66,496,074	6
3	(3)	The Hustle	MGM	$855,709	-42%	3,007	$285	$16,268,423	6
-	(4)	Poms	STX Entertainment	$566,931	-42%	2,750	$206	$7,435,407	6
-	(5)	The Intruder	Sony Pictures	$530,000	-40%	2,222	$239	$23,597,038	13
-	(7)	UglyDolls	STX Entertainment	$258,392	-36%	3,652	$71	$15,411,931	13
-	(8)	Tolkien	Fox Searchlight	$188,274	-37%	1,495	$126	$2,888,639	6
-	(9)	Breakthrough	20th Century Fox	$156,488	-41%	1,902	$82	$37,811,721	34
-	(10)	The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros.	$153,000	-32%	1,182	$129	$52,001,563	27
-	(11)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$143,193	-27%	1,504	$95	$424,301,102	69
-	(12)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$75,000	-29%	936	$80	$137,355,471	41
-	(15)	Dumbo	Walt Disney	$54,460	-16%	837	$65	$111,169,232	48
-	(13)	Little	Universal	$47,015	-38%	586	$80	$39,882,885	34
-	(-)	Penguins	Walt Disney	$40,545	-2%	285	$142	$7,173,372	29
-	(-)	Us	Universal	$32,580	-12%	266	$122	$174,513,680	55
-	(14)	Student of the Year 2	FIP	$30,067	-58%	190	$158	$599,161	6
-	(-)	Pet Sematary	Paramount Pictures	$26,234	-14%	304	$86	$54,325,891	41
-	(-)	Missing Link	United Artists	$13,228	+5%	202	$65	$16,390,608	34
-	(-)	How to Train Your Dragon: T…	Universal	$13,105	+6%	187	$70	$160,176,160	83
-	(-)	The Mustang	Focus Features	$9,825	-1%	118	$83	$5,034,030	62
-	(-)	Unplanned	Pure Flix Entertain…	$9,656	+141%	55	$176	$18,017,974	48
-	(-)	High Life	A24	$5,980	-27%	52	$115	$1,185,228	41
-	(-)	Hotel Mumbai	Bleecker Street	$5,610	-24%	50	$112	$9,511,536	55
-	(-)	After	Aviron Pictures	$5,018	-39%	90	$56	$12,074,487	34
-	(-)	The Best of Enemies	STX Entertainment	$3,370	-10%	81	$42	$10,202,335	41
-	(-)	Gloria Bell	A24	$1,320	-32%	24	$55	$5,603,178	69
-	(-)	Fighting With My Family	United Artists	$824	+10%	28	$29	$22,954,351	91
-	(-)	Frank and Ava	Gravitas Ventures	$196	+38%	2	$98	$12,669	160

 

Isn't that single day's US gross exactly 1/1000th of the target for the entire worldwide run for Endgame to become #1 all-time?

 

Extrapolate from that, stat fans! 😁

[Moses]

4 minutes ago, Clouseau said:

 

Isn't that single day's US gross exactly 1/1000th of the target for the entire worldwide run for Endgame to become #1 all-time?

 

Extrapolate from that, stat fans! 😁

No it is not

The target is 2789

[Clouseau]

4 minutes ago, Moses said:

No it is not

The target is 2789

Oh yeah my mistake. I've pushed around too many numbers today.  😄

 

Target looks so easy now. 😂

[Daxtreme]

The year is 2035

 

The long-anticipated "Avengers Forever" AKA Avengers 8 opened to a record 2.4 BTC worldwide.

 

Forecast pegged the movie for a 1.8 BTC opening so this extraordinary performance is sure to please all the worldwide investors in MarvelCoin.

 

Rumors has it that the bitcoin creator (still anonymous) is considering buying Disney with a 1000 BTC buy-out. The total value of all the Disney properties is estimated at a staggering 800 BTC, or approximately what the average "bitcoin billionaire" owns in this day and age, so according to what we've been told here at Deadline, this is a no-brainer kind of deal.

 

Stay tuned for more BO numbers this week! Or number, singular, if the movie grosses a single BTC.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, I Am said:

~$2.8 billion is still the maximum amount a movie will ever be able to make.

 

Theater attendance is in free fall, theaters are closing left and right, and movie theater subscription packages don't pay the studios well enough to push the industry into the $4 billion territory you think it will be in by 2022. Sawwy.

The main problem is that people tend to use the word locked or comparable words way too often.

People said that about basically everything.

My main problem with your point is that you are dealing in absolutes.

 

Is it likely that a movie grosses more than 2.8b in the next few years, no, it's not, you are right about that (Avatar 2 might have a small shot, though that needs a lot for that to happen and I am not saying that means it suddenly will be above $4b).

 

And if you want to go by the declining adm numbers:

In Germany adm. have been in constant decline since the 50s, because in the late 50s estimates are that up to 800m tickets were sold in one single year (1956 and 1957 are supposed to both be above that number) and then the small screen came and suddenly just ten years later 1968 and 1969 it dropped to just 180m and that trend continued until the years around 1990 were just around 100m adm. sold.

That increased up to 180m in 2001 and fell to just 105m last year again.

If we go by that cinemas have been dead for about 40 to 50 years or one could say on life support if you look at that decline from 1957 to 1967 than around 1977 cinema should have been dead.

What I want to say is that not all hope is lost for cinemas, but they need to do more if they want to be able to bring more than just a few people to watch a movie.

 

3 hours ago, I Am said:

This continuing to be ignored has me in my feels, still. ☺️

I am not ignoring you.

 

When Jurassic Park opened it broke records in a lot of countries and then came Titanic and smashed records basically everywhere (I think it grossed like $70m in Brazil in 1997 which didn't happen again until, I think, Endgame) and doubled the previous highest grossing movies, so despite something appearing like the ceiling it doesn't have to be the ceiling.

 

A movie that is able to catch as much interest around the world as Titanic did could push past it, though and that is where you are right as focus shifts from Europe and the US onto the whole world what type of movie people want diversifies too. What I pointed out is a theoretical amount of money a movie could gross, I don't think that will happen, but it's possible. Is it a reasonable ceiling? No, it's not.

 

Is it reasonable to set the ceiling at 2.8b while everything points towards movies being able to gross a lot more? As more and more movies go above the $1b barrier or even reach $1.5b and $2b.

 

And who says, when Chinese movies become better, that it needs to be a Hollywood film to break that barrier.

China is a gigantic market -  1.37b people - if the big films are able to increase there, maybe one day a movie can do $1.5b in China alone and be written in a way that people in the rest of Asia and Latin America and Europe enjoy it too, America probably will just remake it, which is what limits its worldwide potential the most.

 

Also, India has a lot of potential, I know that it's dominated by local movies too, but if the economy grows and the box office does with it movies could gross a lot there too.

 

And Africa right now is probably as valuable to most movies as is the Netherlands or Belgium (probably less for a lot of movies). That is a gigantic untapped potential and if the industry grows as it does in China then, despite a big local share, Hollywood movies could increase a lot.

 

Still not saying that grows potential is infinite but there certainly is some potential.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[DeeCee]

What’s up?

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, I Am said:

~$2.8 billion is still the maximum amount a movie will ever be able to make.

 

Theater attendance is in free fall, theaters are closing left and right, and movie theater subscription packages don't pay the studios well enough to push the industry into the $4 billion territory you think it will be in by 2022. Sawwy.

 

 

 

 

Not sure to follow you here

 

Why was it possible to do maybe what 3/3.5 billion in 2010 (one actually made almost 2.8B, imagine what the maximum was) in a 30 something billion market, why would it not be more in a soon 42b market ?

 

Has for theater closing left and right, that seem to have stabilized in the US:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/

 

http://www.natoonline.org/data/us-movie-screens/

 

The 40.8k screen in 2018 was the most since 1987 recorded there, 10% more than in 2000.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by Barnack

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

What’s up?

Invasion of alts in a way

 

During a weekday's dailes!?!?

[andrewgr]

2 hours ago, I Am said:

"The report cited data issued last week by box-office analyst Rance Pow, CEO of consultancy Artisan Gateway, saying total tickets sales in China for U.S. studio imports in the first nine months had fallen to 1.64 billion U.S. dollars from 2.17 billion dollars during the same period in 2017.

 

The first six months of 2018 saw the dollar weeken substantially against the Yuan.  By my estimate $1.64 billion over the first 9 months of 2018 tranlsates to about $1.81 billion over the first 9 months of 2017.  Adjusted for currency exchange, the first 9 months of 2018 did 83% as much as the first 9 months 2017.

 

But then, the movies over that time period weren't as popular all over the globe in 2018 as in 2017.  In the first 9 months of 2018, the worldwide take was something on the order of $7.5 billion.  Over the same period in 2017, it was around $8.1 billion.  So worldwide, the first 9 months of 2018 did about 93% as much as the first 9 monthos of 2017.  If we again adjust the 2018 take to control for the worldwide popluarity of the films released in their respective years, the number goes up to $2.0 billion.

 

So now we're comparing $2.17 billion to 2.0 billion.   That would mean the first 9 months of 2018 did 92% as much as the first 9 months of 2017.  I am not going to do the calculations for the last 20 years or whatever to determine if that 8% is statistically significant or not, but my intuition is that there's probably at least 5% variation in any year over year 9-month comparison just due to randomness or the particular appeal of certain movies in the East vs. the West, that have nothing to do with any long term trends.

 

Note: I have not the slightest notion what's going on with Hollywood movies in China.  None.  I just see extremely specific numbers for extremely specific time periods being thrown around and interpreted as evidence of a long-term trend and get suspicious and want to actually do some basic sanity checking, that's all.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

It also had the lowest increase on Tuesday. Still think it will do 30+ this weekend. Endgame seems like more of a weekend movie. It kicks ass on weekends, especially Saturdays. 

That's what we need. 120% pop on Friday and monster Saturday.

Edited May 16, 2019 by cdsacken

[IronJimbo]

Just now, cdsacken said:

That's what we need. 120% pop on Friday and monster Saturday.

now that's a royale we if I've ever seen one

[cdsacken]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

 

 

 

Not sure to follow you here

 

Why was it possible to do maybe what 3/3.5 billion in 2010 (one actually made almost 2.8B, imagine what the maximum was) in a 30 something billion market, why would it not be more in a soon 42b market ?

 

Has for theater closing left and right, that seem to have stabilized in the US:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/

 

http://www.natoonline.org/data/us-movie-screens/

 

The 40.8k screen in 2018 was the most since 1987 recorded there, 10% more than in 2000.

 

 

2020 feels like a lock for a drop without Avatar and no massive avengers movie and. 

Edited May 16, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

now that's a royale we if I've ever seen one

110-120% for Friday is normal. Monster Saturday is 75% within what IW and MCU films do. Don't be a troll.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

 

 

 

Not sure to follow you here

 

Why was it possible to do maybe what 3/3.5 billion in 2010 (one actually made almost 2.8B, imagine what the maximum was) in a 30 something billion market, why would it not be more in a soon 42b market ?

 

Has for theater closing left and right, that seem to have stabilized in the US:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188643/number-of-us-cinema-sites-since-1995/

 

http://www.natoonline.org/data/us-movie-screens/

 

The 40.8k screen in 2018 was the most since 1987 recorded there, 10% more than in 2000.

 

 

Thank you Barnack You are the best. Based on the 2nd link most of the closure have been drive ins. Number of screens are on the rise though I see lots of screens very tiny(some as low as 20 seats !!!! ). We dont have metrics like how many movie seats available 🙂

 

But US is already way behind China on screen count and the gap is widening at a huge pace. This includes iMAX and PLF counts.