Wednesday (5/16) Early Estimates.

[I Am]

13 minutes ago, tawasal said:

And you’re from the future, so you’re not basing your assumptions on assumptions. 

 

So you replied to all those posts that were saying don’t put a cap on box office perfomances through your assumptions, by throwing more assumptions of why your assumption is right and others are not.

Actually, it's based on history.

 

There's a reason why Ariana Grande, the biggest pop star on the planet today, is fairly unrecognizable by many audiences outside the West in the age of mass consumption and media... but Michael Jackson, without the Internet or 24/7 media coverage, is universally known.

 

When local regions (China, for example) have their own developed markets they can enjoy, they tend to forgo thinking outside markets (Hollywood, for example) are as cool and important as people in those once dominate markets (Westerners, for example) think they are.

Edited May 16, 2019 by I Am

[Jessie2]

28 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Please stay, I want to hear plenty more reasons why I am wrong.

Bollywood movies have limited exposure in most European countries and the US, to say he is more well known 'everywhere else' too just cannot be true

[I Am]

6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

2019 is a totally different world.

It's a world in which Western countries no longer need to have Hollywood entertain them, as they have something better for themselves: their own up-and-coming movie industries. All your assumptions assume that non-Western people (global ceiling) are going to continue investing themselves further in Hollywood, rather than investing themselves further in their own homegrown industries.

[Minnale101]

Ariana grande isn’t the biggest pop star on planet lmao 

[Captain Craig]

36 minutes ago, Orestes said:

Hard to say if the legs for EG are average, below average, good, or bad, because right now it's the leggiest 300m and 350m+ opener ever.

Agreed, this film is essentially writing new rules for films with record setting numbers out of the gate.

[NCsoft]

27 minutes ago, I Am said:

It's a world in which Western countries no longer need to have Hollywood entertain them, as they have something better for themselves: their own up-and-coming movie industries. All your assumptions assume that non-Western people (global ceiling) are going to continue investing themselves further in Hollywood, rather than investing themselves further in their own homegrown industries.

You keep repeating this, these are not assumptions, we all have eyes and we have seen the growth of China, other Asian markets and Latin America markets. Yes, local film industry has grown, but equally true to Hollywood films. Look at how much Furious 7 increased from F&F 6 in China, look at how much Endgame increased from Avengers and AOU in China, there's tons of examples like that showing that the market has truly expanded since Avatar 2009 (which is ancient by box office standard).

And yes, non-western people will keep investing in Hollywood, we're living in an increasingly interconnected world where people appreciate both global phenomenons as well as local fares. There's no reason to believe the box office for Hollywood films will suddenly miraculously stop increasing in the quickly expanding markets just because they are Hollywood films. 

btw, I suspect the true market ceiling for a film globally today could be >4.5B, we won't know because that would require a "Titanic" to test that ceiling.

Edited May 16, 2019 by NCsoft

[I Am]

8 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

You keep repeating this, these are not assumptions, we all have eyes and we have seen the growth of China, other Asian markets and Latin America markets. Yes, local film industry has grown, but equally true to Hollywood films. Look at how much Furious 7 increased from F&F 6 in China, look at how much Endgame increased from Avengers and AOU in China, there's tons of examples like that showing that the market has truly expanded since Avatar 2009 (which is ancient by box office standard).

And yes, non-western people will keep investing in Hollywood, we're living in an increasingly interconnected world where people appreciate both global phenomenons as well as local fares. There's no reason to believe the box office for Hollywood films will suddenly miraculously stop increasing in the quickly expanding markets just because they are Hollywood films. 

"A breakdown of revenue for U.S. film imports versus movie product from other international territories wasn't included in the official state data released thus far, but the Hollywood majors are expected to have logged a significant decline in the Middle Kingdom this year. According to early reporting from regional box office tracker Artisan Gateway, revenue from U.S. studio films released through China's quota system was down 16.5 percent in late December. The slide is all the more notable given that the North American box office soared to an all-time record total of $11.9 billion in 2018 — suggesting product quality alone can't explain the downturn in China.

 

The five biggest films at China's box office last year were local blockbusters Operation Red Sea($532 million), Detective Chinatown 2 ($496 million), Dying to Survive ($452 million), Hello Mr. Billionaire ($367 million) and Hollywood's solitary top-five contender Avengers: Infinity War ($349 million)."

Edited May 16, 2019 by I Am

[tawasal]

2 minutes ago, I Am said:

Actually, it's based on history.

 

There's a reason why Ariana Grande, the biggest pop star on the planet today, is fairly unrecognizable by many audiences outside the West in the age of mass consumption and media... but Michael Jackson, without the Internet or 24/7 media coverage, is universally known.

 

When local regions (China) have their own developed markets they can enjoy, they tend to forgo thinking outside markets (Hollywood) are as cool and important as those in those people in once dominate markets (Westerners) think they are.

That’s the most bullshit argument I have ever read and that has nothing to do with the movie industry at all. 

 

What everyone else is saying is backed by past events of movies in every region in the world regarding box office.

 

Every market is growing every year and local movies and foreign ones co-exist. You know what the second and third highest grossing movie in Japan are? TITANIC & FROZEN respectively.

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, I Am said:

 The five biggest films at China's box office last year were local blockbusters Operation Red Sea($532 million), Detective Chinatown 2 ($496 million), Dying to Survive ($452 million), Hello Mr. Billionaire ($367 million) and Hollywood's solitary top-five contender Avengers: Infinity War ($349 million)."

You're not reading what I wrote at all. I am perfectly aware that as Chinese market increased (10 times from 2009), local films has taken a greater portion of the box office increase. I am saying that despite this, Hollywood films have largely benefited from the market growth as well, we have seen concrete, undeniable evidence of this, you can check how much the highest grossing Hollywood film makes in 2009 in China ( or I can tell you, Transformers 2 made like $65M and 2012 like $67M). Fast forward to 2019, Endgame is making $630M. Now that is what market growth does to Hollywood films in China. Same situation with many Latin America and Asian markets, even India. 

BTW,  Endgame has out-grossed all 4 films that you just highlighted. 

Edited May 16, 2019 by NCsoft

[cdsacken]

59 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You can't put a cap on what a movie can or can't make. at one time nobody thought that a Movie would open up to 257 million for the opening weekend and then nobody thought that I movie could open up to 357 million opening weekend. Just because end game and Avatar will end with around the same amount doesn't mean that's the cap. And keep in mind Avatar made that money more than a decade ago so there's obviously room to grow.

Honestly I would love to see Avatar shatter 3 billion. Except IronJimbo and the avatar trolls are so damn annoying I hope it "only" does 2.8 to 3 so they stop trolling every single movie from Star Wars to MCU. Considering the 6 year delay in production of this movie and it taking 12 years to produce it after a movie that shattered records the expectations are insanely high. 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, svetlana99 said:

With the Chinese market continuing to expand and Africa being a market that will boom in the future, not to mention inflation, I don't agree that $2.8 billion is the cap. Not even close.

I don't think this is a forgone conclusion. It's easy to see the currency drop 15% in value as well. Next couple years might be crazy for their market.

 

Wandering Earth proved they are ready to make their big budget films. Others have been successful before that but it was unreal. Almost 700 million in China for a sci fi film?  Score is incredible in that btw and a few characters are cringe worthy but overall I give a 7 out of 10. Shocking imo.

 

Relations with the US are going to have long term effects on the box office. More so look at Japan once an expansive market that shrunk considerably. The amount for End game isn't that great given their population and it was a huge success for Hollywood standards there.

Edited May 16, 2019 by cdsacken

[Nova]

Imagine taking box office advice from someone who thinks Arianna Grande is the biggest pop star on the planet. 

Edited May 16, 2019 by Nova

[I Am]

1 minute ago, tawasal said:

That’s the most bullshit argument I have ever read and that has nothing to do with the movie industry at all. 

 

What everyone else is saying is backed by past events of movies in every region in the world regarding box office.

 

Every market is growing every year and local movies and foreign ones co-exist. You know what the second and third highest grossing movie in Japan are? TITANIC & FROZEN respectively.

The entertainment industry is the entertainment industry, whether you agree with it or not, and your one exception ("Frozen") doesn't overstate the rule, which is that Japan cares more about its own movies than it does white Hollywood films.

 

Japan is the second largest music industry in the world, and yet only small number (one or two a YEAR) of currently globally popular Western artists are able to be profitable enough to do large format concerts there, while multiple older, pre-2000s Western artists are able to do Tokyo shows (Janet Jackson) or the occasional national tour (Mariah Carey) are able to sell them out.

 

Like many, you think the West is the best, but living outside the country shows a much different reality.

[tawasal]

This for @I Am

Look at this list and tell me you don't see growth. 

 

1997: 1 1BN

2003: 1

2006: 1

2008: 1

2009: 1 - 2BN

2010: 2

2011: 3

2012: 4 - 1.5BN

2013: 2

2014: 1

2015: 5 - 2BN, 1.6BN, 1.5BN, 1.4BN

2016: 4

2017: 4

2018: 5 - 2BN

2019: 2 (so far) - 2.5BN+

 

[Nova]

Anyways the cap isn’t $2.8B. The Cameron fanboys are promising $4 Billies for Avatar 2 so $4 billies it is 

[tawasal]

3 minutes ago, I Am said:

The entertainment industry is the entertainment industry, whether you agree with it or not, and your one exception ("Frozen") doesn't overstate the rule, which is that Japan cares more about its own movies than it does white Hollywood films.

 

Japan is the second largest music industry in the world, and yet only small number (one or two a YEAR) of currently globally popular Western artists are able to be profitable enough to do large format concerts there, while multiple older, pre-2000s Western artists are able to do Tokyo shows (Janet Jackson) or the occasional national tour (Mariah Carey) are able to sell them out.

 

Like many, you think the West is the best, but living outside the country shows a much different reality.

The box office of movies and how well known music celebrities are don't correlate in any form or shape. Take that bullshit somewhere else. 

[tawasal]

12 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

You're not reading what I wrote at all. I am perfectly aware that as Chinese market increased (10 times from 2009), local films has taken a greater portion of the box office increase. I am saying that despite this, Hollywood films have largely benefited from the market growth as well, we have seen concrete, undeniable evidence of this, you can check how much the highest grossing Hollywood film makes in 2009 in China ( or I can tell you, Transformers 2 made like $65M and 2012 like $67M). Fast forward to 2019, Endgame is making $630M. Now that is what market growth does to Hollywood films in China. Same situation with many Latin America and Asian markets, even India. 

BTW,  Endgame has out-grossed all 4 films that you just highlighted. 

Avatar even made 204m back in 2009 and that was AEG's opening weekend alone almost. 

[I Am]

4 minutes ago, tawasal said:

This for @I Am

Look at this list and tell me you don't see growth. 

 

1997: 1 1BN

2003: 1

2006: 1

2008: 1

2009: 1 - 2BN

2010: 2

2011: 3

2012: 4 - 1.5BN

2013: 2

2014: 1

2015: 5 - 2BN, 1.6BN, 1.5BN, 1.4BN

2016: 4

2017: 4

2018: 5 - 2BN

2019: 2 (so far) - 2.5BN+

 

I don't understand what I'm looking at? The number of movies over $1 billion, and then the highest figure?

[tawasal]

All we need is that a movie in 1997 made 1.8BN and 10 years later another made 2.8BN. 

And since 2015 we have had 3 movies make over 2BN globally. 

[NCsoft]

14 minutes ago, I Am said:

 

Like many, you think the West is the best, but living outside the country shows a much different reality.

I don't think this is about the west being the best, it's about facing the reality of a globalized world, where it's absurd to suggest that a market that can expand by 10 times over 10 years, and Hollywood films don't benefit significantly from that growth. The local films might benefit more but that's another matter altogether.

I would also suggest to avoid this kind of emotion (west or east is the best) into discussion about box office, because that's where biases come from. I speak as a Chinese immigrant to the west, btw, I lived in both places, not exactly a west must dominate the globe kind of person.

Edited May 16, 2019 by NCsoft