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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

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4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

@baumer  the last 2 series to achieve it was the Austin Powers then the Bourne trilogy.

 

MV5BMTI3NTkzODI0MF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwNjc5
Austin Powers in Goldmember
NL $213,307,889 3,613 $73,071,188 3,613 7/26/2002 Trailers
MV5BMmFkZGQxN2YtODNlYS00MzM5LTk3NjQtNTUx
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me
NL $206,040,086 3,314 $54,917,604 3,312 6/11/1999 Trailers
MV5BMTRhZTY0MDItY2I1Yi00MGE3LTk1ZDEtMjA0
Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery
NL $53,883,989 2,187 $9,548,111 2,187 5/2/1997

 

 

MV5BNGNiNmU2YTMtZmU4OS00MjM0LTlmYWUtMjVl
The Bourne Ultimatum
Uni. $227,471,070 3,701 $69,283,690 3,660 8/3/2007 Trailers
Images
MV5BYTIyMDFmMmItMWQzYy00MjBiLTg2M2UtM2Ji
The Bourne Supremacy
Uni. $176,241,941 3,304 $52,521,865 3,165 7/23/2004 Trailers
MV5BM2JkNGU0ZGMtZjVjNS00NjgyLWEyOWYtZmRm
The Bourne Identity
Uni. $121,661,683 2,663 $27,118,640 2,638 6/14/2002 Trailers

 

 

 

Borune is nowhere nears in the same company.  Wick and Powers will triple their first movie.  Bourne isn't even double.

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24 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

If I called anyone juvenile it would be the pot calling the kettle black. “You can only be young once but immature forever” is basically my life mantra 😛

 

Yeah I felt that with where they were, to end GoT with 6 episodes just didn’t seem like enough. I don’t want to be a cynic but why does it seem like so many TV shows, they roped us along for X seasons and frankly just don’t care how it ends because they already made their money? How many shows do you actually think ended on a high note m? I can only think of a few.

 

Avatar: The Last Airbender remains the best example of a show that constantly got better and better and that had literally THE perfect ending.

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Back to movies...

 

If Pika pulls a $6.1M Fri, I don't see why it couldn't have a decent hold weekend...if it follows its closest similar movie, HTTYD3 this year, HTTYD3 increased 118.9% Sat and dropped 32.4% Sun...Using $6.1M for Friday, that gives a weekend of

 

Fri $6.1M

Sat $13.3M

Sun $9.0M

 

Putting a possible number of $28.4M (48% drop) in play...now, I'm not saying it's getting there, but I am saying I wouldn't get too negative on the weekend hold til we see how Saturday plays out...I will say $22.5M (scratch, now they've updated to $23M) seems low, if the $6.1M is real...

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2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Borune is nowhere nears in the same company.  Wick and Powers will triple their first movie.  Bourne isn't even double.

Yes because Bourne Identity was an immediate success. It still increased for each film though.

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Back to movies...

 

If Pika pulls a $6.1M Fri, I don't see why it couldn't have a decent hold weekend...if it follows its closest similar movie, HTTYD3 this year, HTTYD3 increased 118.9% Sat and dropped 32.4% Sun...Using $6.1M for Friday, that gives a weekend of

 

Fri $6.1M

Sat $13.3M

Sun $9.0M

 

Putting a possible number of $28.4M (48% drop) in play...now, I'm not saying it's getting there, but I am saying I wouldn't get too negative on the weekend hold til we see how Saturday plays out...I will say $22.5M (scratch, now they've updated to $23M) seems low, if the $6.1M is real...

And let me be amused...now that I go to Deadline's article, vs looking at their chart, they seem to agree with me that maybe this isn't a done deal...but, how can you have 2 Pika numbers almost $5M apart on the same page for weekend predictions?:)

 

"John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum which is poised to open up to an estimated $56.9M. That’s the highest opening for Lionsgate since November 2015’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2‘s $102.6M. The threequel, which is not a victim of threequelitis at the box office in any way shape or form, earned an A- CinemaScore, the same grade as John Wick: Chapter 2. 

Further props to the continued mojo of Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame, which despite shedding 442 screens will power past Avatar’s lifetime domestic of $760.5M this weekend to become the second highest grossing film ever at the domestic box office with $769M. Also, Warner Bros./Legendary’s Pokemon Detective Pickachu looks to be holding with $27.7M in weekend 2, -56% for $92.1M by Sunday. "

 

Vs

 

BOX OFFICE FOR MAY 17-19

THUMB RANK FILM DIS. SCREENS (CHG) FRIDAY 3-DAY TOTAL WK
john-wick-3-e1558103445192.jpg?resize=50 1 John Wick: Chapter 3 LG 3,850 $22.5M $56.9M $56.9M 1
yrt1240_v194.1074.jpg?resize=500%2C281 2 Avengers: Endgame Dis 4,220 (-442) $7.1M (-56%) $27.7M (-56%) $769M 4
pikachu.jpg?resize=500%2C281 3 …Detective Pikachu WB/Leg 4,248 (+46) $6.1M (-70%) $23M (-58%) $92.1M 2
Edited by TwoMisfits
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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Back to movies...

 

If Pika pulls a $6.1M Fri, I don't see why it couldn't have a decent hold weekend...if it follows its closest similar movie, HTTYD3 this year, HTTYD3 increased 118.9% Sat and dropped 32.4% Sun...Using $6.1M for Friday, that gives a weekend of

 

Fri $6.1M

Sat $13.3M

Sun $9.0M

 

Putting a possible number of $28.4M (48% drop) in play...now, I'm not saying it's getting there, but I am saying I wouldn't get too negative on the weekend hold til we see how Saturday plays out...I will say $22.5M (scratch, now they've updated to $23M) seems low, if the $6.1M is real...

It's not a kids film. It's a hybrid movie. With 6.1, 26 is near the absolute peak which is still unlikely. Compare to Shazam. End Game has been killed on Saturday and then JW3 is doing awesome. I think 24 is a good expectation for DP.

Edited by cdsacken
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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Yes because Bourne Identity was an immediate success. It still increased for each film though.

 

Did you not read my post?  

 

Lots of films increase from film to film.  I'm talking about the biggest increase from first to third or at least first to second.  I mentioned films with more than triple the increase.  I did not include Bourne because it's not anywhere near what Wick will do from first to third.  My post was discussing films that had better than a triple increase from movie to movie.

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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

It's not a kids film. It's a hybrid movie. With 6.1, 26 is near the absolute peak which is still unlikely. Compare to Shazam.

So's HTTYD3...and that film, like Pika, is not a supers one, but it is a franchise one, so I think it's the most on point comparison...but we'll see...I just don't think the weekend's a done deal for Pika:)...

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Just now, baumer said:

 

Did you not read my post?  

 

Lots of films increase from film to film.  I'm talking about the biggest increase from first to third or at least first to second.  I mentioned films with more than triple the increase.  I did not include Bourne because it's not anywhere near what Wick will do from first to third.  My post was discussing films that had better than a triple increase from movie to movie.

Yes I read your post. To me it sounded like saying because JW only did 88 million it somehow makes the jump more impressive. I disagree. Again I think it was impressive from the get go on a $20 million budget.

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@TwoMisfits I can see your view point BUT the biggest counter argument is that Pikachu hasn't played like a family movie at all (despite it getting a decent children's audience) so I'd be very very very surprised if it suddenly managed to play like one today lol 

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9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Borune is nowhere nears in the same company.  Wick and Powers will triple their first movie.  Bourne isn't even double.

True! But I was using it to show how each Bourne installment increased over the other. Plus, only the 2nd Austin doubled the 1st movie, while the 3rd one had a very slight increase ($11M) over the 2nd. Each Bourne movie had a $50M increase!

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5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So's HTTYD3...and that film, like Pika, is not a supers one, but it is a franchise one, so I think it's the most on point comparison...but we'll see...I just don't think the weekend's a done deal for Pika:)...

Happy to admit I'm wrong if it jumps over 120% on Saturday. I just don't see it. 90% tops is my guess, more likely 80. 23 probably is too low but 24-25 seems realistic.

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4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It's not a kids film. It's a hybrid movie. With 6.1, 26 is near the absolute peak which is still unlikely. Compare to Shazam. End Game has been killed on Saturday and then JW3 is doing awesome. I think 24 is a good expectation for DP.

When it's not a kids film and its a cartoon, then it's a family movie unless its specifically adult.  Is 'hybrid' movie even a thing?  How many other hybrid animation films are there?

 

It seems to me there's no real market for Pika.  The movie is a novelty.  It didn't seem to substantially attract the 85m pokemon go players.  I saw it, and I can't figure out who this movie was really for.  Ryan Reynolds is miscast.  The whole thing screams "this is a one-off and we won't be back again".  So I'm not sure what the reasoning or logic was behind this movie, unless its target is asia and I'm not meant to get it.

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6 minutes ago, Nova said:

@TwoMisfits I can see your view point BUT the biggest counter argument is that Pikachu hasn't played like a family movie at all (despite it getting a decent children's audience) so I'd be very very very surprised if it suddenly managed to play like one today lol 

It's been having a weird performance. It's been performing like a kids movie half the time and not like a kids movie the other half. I think Mother's Day might have skewed the film's performance for most of this week.

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26 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Back to movies...

 

If Pika pulls a $6.1M Fri, I don't see why it couldn't have a decent hold weekend...if it follows its closest similar movie, HTTYD3 this year, HTTYD3 increased 118.9% Sat and dropped 32.4% Sun...Using $6.1M for Friday, that gives a weekend of

 

Fri $6.1M

Sat $13.3M

Sun $9.0M

 

Putting a possible number of $28.4M (48% drop) in play...now, I'm not saying it's getting there, but I am saying I wouldn't get too negative on the weekend hold til we see how Saturday plays out...I will say $22.5M (scratch, now they've updated to $23M) seems low, if the $6.1M is real...

httyd3 and pika's holds so far have been very different. httyd3 has behaved like a family movie - 1st Sat bump, Mon drop, Tue bump, 2nd Fri bump...

 

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Feb 22, 2019 1 $17,376,690   4,259 $4,080   $17,376,690 1
Feb 23, 2019 1 $22,289,305 +28% 4,259 $5,233   $39,665,995 2
Feb 24, 2019 1 $15,356,250 -31% 4,259 $3,606   $57,522,245 3
Feb 25, 2019 1 $2,332,805 -85% 4,259 $548   $59,855,050 4
Feb 26, 2019 1 $3,709,180 +59% 4,259 $871   $63,564,230 5
Feb 27, 2019 1 $2,038,040 -45% 4,259 $479   $65,602,270 6
Feb 28, 2019 1 $2,048,005 n/c 4,259 $481   $67,650,275 7
Mar 1, 2019 2 $6,431,160 +214% 4,286 $1,501   $74,081,435 8
Mar 2, 2019 1 $14,075,780 +119% 4,286 $3,284   $88,157,215 9
Mar 3, 2019 1 $9,521,600 -32% 4,286 $2,222   $97,678,815 10

 

compare those 4 holds with Pika

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
May 10, 2019 1 $20,575,704   4,202 $4,897   $20,575,704 1
May 11, 2019 2 $20,365,840 -1% 4,202 $4,847   $40,941,544 2
May 12, 2019 2 $13,423,698 -34% 4,202 $3,195   $54,365,242 3
May 13, 2019 2 $3,693,215 -72% 4,202 $879   $58,058,457 4
May 14, 2019 2 $5,337,617 +45% 4,202 $1,270   $63,396,074 5
May 15, 2019 2 $3,070,078 -42% 4,202 $731   $66,466,152 6
May 16, 2019 2 $2,720,694 -11% 4,202 $647   $69,186,846 7

..............................$6.1...............+125%

 

Edited by a2k
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5 minutes ago, a2k said:

httyd3 and pika's performance so far has been very different. httyd3 has behaved like a family movie - 1st Sat bump, Mon drop, Tue bump, 2nd Fri bump...

 

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Feb 22, 2019 1 $17,376,690   4,259 $4,080   $17,376,690 1
Feb 23, 2019 1 $22,289,305 +28% 4,259 $5,233   $39,665,995 2
Feb 24, 2019 1 $15,356,250 -31% 4,259 $3,606   $57,522,245 3
Feb 25, 2019 1 $2,332,805 -85% 4,259 $548   $59,855,050 4
Feb 26, 2019 1 $3,709,180 +59% 4,259 $871   $63,564,230 5
Feb 27, 2019 1 $2,038,040 -45% 4,259 $479   $65,602,270 6
Feb 28, 2019 1 $2,048,005 n/c 4,259 $481   $67,650,275 7
Mar 1, 2019 2 $6,431,160 +214% 4,286 $1,501   $74,081,435 8
Mar 2, 2019 1 $14,075,780 +119% 4,286 $3,284   $88,157,215 9
Mar 3, 2019 1 $9,521,600 -32% 4,286 $2,222   $97,678,815 10

 

compare those 4 holds with Pika

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
May 10, 2019 1 $20,575,704   4,202 $4,897   $20,575,704 1
May 11, 2019 2 $20,365,840 -1% 4,202 $4,847   $40,941,544 2
May 12, 2019 2 $13,423,698 -34% 4,202 $3,195   $54,365,242 3
May 13, 2019 2 $3,693,215 -72% 4,202 $879   $58,058,457 4
May 14, 2019 2 $5,337,617 +45% 4,202 $1,270   $63,396,074 5
May 15, 2019 2 $3,070,078 -42% 4,202 $731   $66,466,152 6
May 16, 2019 2 $2,720,694 -11% 4,202 $647   $69,186,846  

..............................$6.1...............+110%

 

$6.1M would actually be a 125% increase :ph34r: But I overall agree with your post 

Edited by Nova
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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

httyd3 and pika's performance so far has been very different. httyd3 has behaved like a family movie - 1st Sat bump, Mon drop, Tue bump, 2nd Fri bump...

  

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Feb 22, 2019 1 $17,376,690   4,259 $4,080   $17,376,690 1
Feb 23, 2019 1 $22,289,305 +28%  4,259 $5,233   $39,665,995 2
Feb 24, 2019 1 $15,356,250 -31% 4,259 $3,606   $57,522,245 3
Feb 25, 2019 1 $2,332,805 -85% 4,259 $548   $59,855,050 4
Feb 26, 2019 1 $3,709,180 +59% 4,259 $871   $63,564,230 5
Feb 27, 2019 1 $2,038,040 -45% 4,259 $479   $65,602,270 6
Feb 28, 2019 1 $2,048,005 n/c 4,259 $481   $67,650,275 7
Mar 1, 2019 2 $6,431,160 +214% 4,286 $1,501   $74,081,435 8
Mar 2, 2019 1 $14,075,780 +119% 4,286 $3,284   $88,157,215 9
Mar 3, 2019 1 $9,521,600 -32% 4,286 $2,222   $97,678,815 10

 

compare those 4 holds with Pika

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
May 10, 2019 1 $20,575,704   4,202 $4,897   $20,575,704 1
May 11, 2019 2 $20,365,840 -1% 4,202 $4,847   $40,941,544 2
May 12, 2019 2 $13,423,698 -34% 4,202 $3,195   $54,365,242 3
May 13, 2019 2 $3,693,215 -72% 4,202 $879   $58,058,457 4
May 14, 2019 2 $5,337,617 +45% 4,202 $1,270   $63,396,074 5
May 15, 2019 2 $3,070,078 -42% 4,202 $731   $66,466,152 6
May 16, 2019 2 $2,720,694 -11% 4,202 $647   $69,186,846 7

..............................$6.1...............+110%

 

Pikachu's Monday and Tuesday drop go skewed because of Mother's Day. It has one of the best post-Mother's Day Tuesday holds in the past few years.

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