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Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

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15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Okay, 3rd bad weekend drop in a row, will finally adjust my expectations to bad legs. Maybe 830-850. Still an amazing total, fills out the 800-900 gap, but we’re leaning pretty hard on OS-C legs to pass Avatar at this point. 

Yep hits keep coming. I hope it passes Avatar but its at a point where I would be thrilled with a 51% drop. That's not great. 

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I said this before in one of the daily threads but Keanu Reeves has never been down and out. He made gobs of money off of The Matrix sequels and he has said over and over again that he has more money than he will ever be able to spend in about a hundred lifetimes. He is never made movies to be a studio guy he's always done films that he has wanted to do. So in between the Matrix and John Wick he's done a couple of studio films but he's also done a lot of other smaller ones. The choices that he has made have been his own choices any essentially he's made whatever he's wanted to make.

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John Wick had a great Friday and should be on track for something around $55 million for the weekend, though it could push to the high-50s if it posts a preview-excluded multiplier in the vein of Chapter 2. It's definitely impressive that both of the sequels in this series have had enormous jumps over the performances of their predecessors.

 

The holds for Endgame just are what they are at this point. In most cases, I would agree that a film that routinely drops over 50% weekend after weekend isn't holding on well, but we're talking about a movie that broke the weekend record by nearly $100 million and burnt off an unprecedented amount of demand in a short time. The fact that it's on track to put up a weekend in the high-20s after already surpassing Infinity War's domestic total from just a year ago is certainly impressive enough.

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14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yep hits keep coming. I hope it passes Avatar but its at a point where I would be thrilled with a 51% drop. That's not great. 

opposite for me

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46 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Thank you. It barely beat infinity war without having to face Deadpool 2. 

Problem is not weekend run, weekday drops are worse. Its have below average tuesday increase but normal wednesday drops. Plus thursday drops are also not great without too much competition.

 

But all that is minor compared to the fact that it has had a monster run. Basically most folks who would see have already seen it.

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19 minutes ago, baumer said:

I said this before in one of the daily threads but Keanu Reeves has never been down and out. He made gobs of money off of The Matrix sequels and he has said over and over again that he has more money than he will ever be able to spend in about a hundred lifetimes. He is never made movies to be a studio guy he's always done films that he has wanted to do. So in between the Matrix and John Wick he's done a couple of studio films but he's also done a lot of other smaller ones. The choices that he has made have been his own choices any essentially he's made whatever he's wanted to make.

To be fair, he has said in interviews that he's sorta been on the outs with studios for a while there, before JW and has admitted that he's felt at times that he has been fighting for his career. But still, he is such a likable guy, I expect studios would eventually give him a chance again - even if it's a supporting role in superhero franchises (where everyone will end up anyway)...

 

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MCU franchise sequel 4th Weekend
Drop
MCU franchise first entry 4th Weekend
Drop
Avengers: Endgame TBD The Incredible Hulk 48.8%
Captain America: Civil War 53.3% Captain America: The First Avenger 44.6%
Avengers: Infinity War 52.6% Spider-Man: Homecoming 40.1%
Ant-Man and the Wasp 46.9% Captain Marvel 39.7%
Iron Man 3 46.0% Black Panther 38.4%
Avengers: Age of Ultron 44.2% Thor 38.3%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 39.7% Ant-Man 38.2%
Iron Man 2 37.6% Iron Man 35.8%
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 36.6% Marvel’s The Avengers 34.1%
Thor: Ragnarok 22.2% Guardians of the Galaxy 31.5%
Thor: The Dark World 21.9% Doctor Strange 22.7%
average 40.1% average 37.5%
median 42.0% median 38.3%

 

See also: MCU weekend 3 and 2 drops

 

Deadline thinks $27.7M (56% drop) for Endgame Weekend 4.

 

EDIT: Deadline later updated to $29.4M (53% drop) for Endgame Weekend 4.

Edited by MagnarTheGreat
DL update
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Pretty disappointed Endgame won’t even come close to TFA and is showing very mediocre to poor staying power after the great reception. If it drops another 50 percent during a holiday weekend...that would be tragic.

 

800 million+ is still very impressive though. Passing Avatar WW will be a nail biter 

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So, looking at next weekend, most small-to-midsize theaters will probably try to open up Aladdin to 2 screens (with presales as they are now, I can't imagine them getting more at 12s or less, but we'll see if presales change, or theater owners play nice with Disney) and get Brightburn and Booksmart on a screen each...

 

As of now, that probably means Poms and Tolkien are ejected...The Hustle, The Intruder, UglyDolls, and Long Shot are also coming for decently big drops...and A Dog's Journey and The Sun Is Also A Star may not be able to hold their full screens (we'll see how good those contracts were).  With so many underperformers looking to get pushed out 1st, I expect Pika and Endgame to still hold on to ginormous numbers of screens for the Memorial Day weekend and beyond (even without long contracts b/c they are the "performing" holdovers)...

 

And on that point, this whole month seems like a feast/famine month for holdovers...if you hit, you'll be around awhile, but if you strike out OW, you'll be gone in 2-4 weeks...

 

I fully expect a 12 next week to look something like

Aladdin (2 - maybe 2.5)

Brightburn (1)

Booksmart (1)

JW3 (1.5)

Pika (1.5)

Endgame (1 or 1.5)

This week's sucky openers  - whatever got booked that wasn't JW3 (2)

The rest of the holdovers (1-2)

 

And it repeats, as the winners stay, and the new low openers drop to the bottom of the pile, and then drop out quickly...
 

 

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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Endgame should have its first sub 50% drop next weekend, should drop no more than 45%

Including Monday drop will be the 20s

 

I'm guessing 40-42% for 3 day, 22-24% for 4 day

Edited by cdsacken
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21 minutes ago, Moviefanatic said:

Pretty disappointed Endgame won’t even come close to TFA and is showing very mediocre to poor staying power after the great reception. If it drops another 50 percent during a holiday weekend...that would be tragic.

  

 800 million+ is still very impressive though. Passing Avatar WW will be a nail biter 

I mean, look: at the end of the day, what Endgame did on its opening wasn't just unprecedented.... it was virtually unbelievable until it happened. Even @CJohn lowballed it and he opened the fucking 300M+ OW club. For a movie with that much burnt demand in its 1st three days, it really doesn't matter if its legs aren't great. Its run is incredible, plain and simple. For what's worth, it'll have a better multiplier than Civil War with an OW literally twice as big.

 

And yeah, Avatar is gonna be a nail biter, but even though Disney owns both, I believe they will push Endgame above if it comes close enough.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

I think John wick 3 peak last night on pluse 39 000

 

now it’s 32k 

 

hopefully it’s just more walk ups now 

I mean, it is the 3rd sequel of a franchise. 

i think Friday night was always expected to be it's peak. It'll post good Saturday numbers thanks to day business, but the 5pm -11pm hours on Friday night is certainly going to be it's peak. 

 

An amazing performance though!

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11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I mean, it is the 3rd sequel of a franchise. 

i think Friday night was always expected to be it's peak. It'll post good Saturday numbers thanks to day business, but the 5pm -11pm hours on Friday night is certainly going to be it's peak. 

 

An amazing performance though!

Definitely fantastic. It’s a great movie 

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