Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, looking at next weekend, most small-to-midsize theaters will probably try to open up Aladdin to 2 screens (with presales as they are now, I can't imagine them getting more at 12s or less, but we'll see if presales change, or theater owners play nice with Disney) and get Brightburn and Booksmart on a screen each...

 

As of now, that probably means Poms and Tolkien are ejected...The Hustle, The Intruder, UglyDolls, and Long Shot are also coming for decently big drops...and A Dog's Journey and The Sun Is Also A Star may not be able to hold their full screens (we'll see how good those contracts were).  With so many underperformers looking to get pushed out 1st, I expect Pika and Endgame to still hold on to ginormous numbers of screens for the Memorial Day weekend and beyond (even without long contracts b/c they are the "performing" holdovers)...

 

And on that point, this whole month seems like a feast/famine month for holdovers...if you hit, you'll be around awhile, but if you strike out OW, you'll be gone in 2-4 weeks...

 

I fully expect a 12 next week to look something like

Aladdin (2 - maybe 2.5)

Brightburn (1)

Booksmart (1)

JW3 (1.5)

Pika (1.5)

Endgame (1 or 1.5)

This week's sucky openers  - whatever got booked that wasn't JW3 (2)

The rest of the holdovers (1-2)

 

And it repeats, as the winners stay, and the new low openers drop to the bottom of the pile, and then drop out quickly...
 

 

I’m assuming:

 

Aladdin x3

John Wick x2

Avengers x2

Booksmart

Brightburn

Pikachu

A Dog’s Journey

The Hustle/Sun Is Also a Star

 

Pikachu is dropping too much to retain multiple screens at midsize theaters. Larger theaters will probably keep it on two. Using a 20plex:

 

Aladdin x5 (including large formats)

Brightburn x2 (it’s taking over the late Dolby show from Aladdin at my theater, so some PLFs will be included)

John Wick x2 (can also see some night shows being taken away from other films)

Avengers x2

Pikachu x2

All Is True (this is probably the only indie expanding next week)

Booksmart

A Dog’s Journey

The Hustle

The Intruder

Long Shot

Poms/Sun Is Also a Star (Poms could be swapped with an older holdover in younger skewing areas)

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I don't see what is wrong with caring about paychecks.

What's wrong with not caring about them if you were well off?

 

I've stayed as a stay at home day the past 2 years. Hell I'd retire now if I could afford it  

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

We've had a bunch...and if you wanted supers, Captain America is a heckuva 3-quel grower...and if you wanted animated, Toy Story is another heckuva 3-quel grower...

Lord of the rings opened as an absolute monster and still grew for the next 2 films. That was impressive!

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, blackspider said:

 

I’m not saying it’s wrong but Keanu Reeves has been known to be very selfless throughout his career which is one of his better traits. He took paycuts to get Al Pacino for Devils Advocate and Gene Hackman for The Replacements. He gave a portion of his paycheck to the stunt men on the Matrix films.

 

Contrast that to Bruce Willis who turned down Expendables 3 because he was “only” getting 3 million dollars for 4 days work and wanted more.

Bruce Willis got like 100 million dollars for the sixth sense.

 

Tom Hanks got 110 million (over 150 million in todays money) for Forrest Gump and Saving Private Ryan. Straight up waived his compensation for a bigger cut. 

[blackspider]

26 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Fast and Furious, maybe. But they had to reconceive it to get to those heights whereas John Wick's appeal has stayed fundamentally the same. 

 

Yep, the F&F franchise biggest strengths was flipping the script and deviate from car racing and focus on delivering over the top action and its emergence as an OS juggernaut. But it’s had some misfires as a whole, understandable after 8 entries.

 

The Bourne trilogy saw healthy increases with each entry but peaked after 3. It’s hard to keep the momentum going, but if JW 4 gets made, I wouldn’t doubt it.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Re End Game’s legs:

 

Boys: Once more, with feeling, from the top:

 

• It is three hours long
• It made 357M Opening Weekend
• It is three hours long
• It has made circa 750M in 22 Days
• It is THREE HOURS LONG
• it is not December
• THREE HOURS LONG

 

While the run time did not hinder its opening weekend capabilities, it will no longer be able to maintain optimal showing times going forward.  That will will obviously affect its legs during June until it gets a small FFH bump.

 

 

Historically long movie and OW record breaker had good multiplier even outside December, Spider-Man, first Potter, Dark Knight, Avengers, Jurassic World.

 

There is some exception outside the MCU, Spider Man 3, Deathly Hallows 2.

 

A good comparable of why the low multiplier is Deathly Hallows Part 2, much more than runtime imo (lower run time we probably have an higher OW and similar if not worst legs multiplier).

 

It is not just a case of burning demand and runtime, there is something about how mediocrre the WOM probably among people not invested in the saga must be, that do not create the usual Giant OW help multiplier instead of hurting it (like Beauty, Black Panther, Jurassic World, etc...) phenomenom we see, it must be impossible for someone that have seen all the MCU before this one to feel like a newcomer can feel watching this.

 

It was one of the worst competently made big budget movie watching experience for me for a good part of the runtime, the giant one of the great last hour easily make up for it and will give great cinemascore/out of theater buzz, but good start for a movie is where a lot of rewatch/staying power can come from.

[baumer]

8 hours ago, baumer said:

Too much GoT talk here....there's a lot of movie talk to discuss....GoT is boring.

 

This is a phenomenal number for Wick and even if you give it sequel erosion, it should still get to a 2.6 multiplier from a 57 mill weekend and you have close to 150 mill.

 

When is the last time a non super-hero trilogy had this much of an increase from the first to the third?  Such an innocuous beginning to what we have now.  The original made 43 million.  This one has a chance to quadruple that one.  Not likely, but it has a chance.  The last franchise that did that...was it the Austin Powers trilogy?  I don't have the time to look it up but this has to be in select company.  I know it happened all the time 30 or 40 years ago with films like First Blood to Rambo and Terminator to T2 and Lethal Weapon to LW2 and 3, just to name a few examples, but in recent memory?  Not many if any at all.    

 

EDIT.....ok, forget superhero movies, John Wick is about to go into elite company.  Just doing a very very quick search and I don't think there are many movies that increased more than Wick did from the first to the third, in fact, only Austin Powers, the last twenty years, has a better increase from first to second or first to third.  Maybe the reason is home video isn't what it used to be.  I'm not sure but Wick has done something very unique to film.  It built an audience to the point where the third films is set to at least triple the gross of the first.  

 

And if you want to go back in history, here is the company it is with:

 

First Blood to Rambo:  triple from first to second

Terminator to T2:  5.4X (probably will never be broken)

Lethal Weapon to part 2: 2.26...so it doesn't really qualify

Austin Powers to IMOM:  3.88

 

And that's about it.  Wick is going to at least triple the gross of the original.  Pretty incredible!

 

@blackspider this is what you were mentioning. I thought the same as you. 

[blackspider]

Endgame vs. TFA reminds me of Revenge of the Sith vs. Phantom Menace. I remember being so stoked after Sith’s then massive 50m OD and 158m 4 day. I was pretty confident it would pass Menace, WOM was mostly positive and it had finale factor. But like Endgame experienced with TFA, Sith just couldn’t keep up with the relentless consistency of Menace after it’s huge opening and fell well short.

[blackspider]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

@blackspider this is what you were mentioning. I thought the same as you. 

 

Yep, I’m in full agreement this is rare territory. I do take in account the low opening of the first to slightly downplay it but usually when the first one opens low, the sequel is the one that reaps all the benefits and the third has the task of matching it which isn’t the case here. This is unprecedented to see its audience expand in such a short time.

[Krissykins]

John Wick was great. 

 

Those fight scenes put other films to shame. 

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

@blackspider this is what you were mentioning. I thought the same as you. 

Blair Witch 2 is the inverse.

 

Domestically it made 18.5% of the original. Absolutely god awful. Then they made a 3rd and it did even worse!

[ScoobyDoo21]

There was a 3rd Blair Witch?

[baumer]

It was pretty commonplace in the 70s and 80s for the first film to do Master business and then the sequel, even if it was a good one decreased significantly. Look at jaws and Star Wars and raiders of the lost ark and Beverly Hills cop and so on.

[cdsacken]

Clerks 2 did a 500% increase

Desperado 1000%

 

#1 all time and will never ever be beaten Boondock Saints 2

 

30k DOM vs 10.6 million. Nothing will ever touch 35000%

[blackspider]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Blair Witch 2 is the inverse.

 

Domestically it made 18.5% of the original. Absolutely god awful. Then they made a 3rd and it did even worse!

 

I would venture and say every comedy from the 70’s and 80’s that got a sequel saw massive decline from the first. They were effortless cash grabs that rarely got original cast to come back and were usually shit movies.

 

Hollywood has learned its lesson and now is dependent on sequels so we see much higher quality sequels than in years past.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

There was a 3rd Blair Witch?

2016. did horrible yet still made money.

[blackspider]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

It was pretty commonplace in the 70s and 80s for the first film to do Master business and then the sequel, even if it was a good one decreased significantly. Look at jaws and Star Wars and raiders of the lost ark and Beverly Hills cop and so on.

 

We’re having some good synergy going today. I say essentially the same thing haha. Just like the good ole days at BOM. 

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Clerks 2 did a 500% increase

Desperado 1000%

 

#1 all time and will never ever be beaten Boondock Saints 2

 

30k DOM vs 10.6 million. Nothing will ever touch 35000%

 

Good ones!!

[AJG]

21 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

There was a 3rd Blair Witch?

Yep.

 

There was also a Grease 2

[Thrylos 7]

50 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Historically long movie and OW record breaker had good multiplier even outside December, Spider-Man, first Potter, Dark Knight, Avengers, Jurassic World.

 

There is some exception outside the MCU, Spider Man 3, Deathly Hallows 2.

 

A good comparable of why the low multiplier is Deathly Hallows Part 2, much more than runtime imo (lower run time we probably have an higher OW and similar if not worst legs multiplier).

 

It is not just a case of burning demand and runtime, there is something about how mediocrre the WOM probably among people not invested in the saga must be, that do not create the usual Giant OW help multiplier instead of hurting it (like Beauty, Black Panther, Jurassic World, etc...) phenomenom we see, it must be impossible for someone that have seen all the MCU before this one to feel like a newcomer can feel watching this.

 

It was one of the worst competently made big budget movie watching experience for me for a good part of the runtime, the giant one of the great last hour easily make up for it and will give great cinemascore/out of theater buzz, but good start for a movie is where a lot of rewatch/staying power can come from.

WOM is mediocre even amongst people invested in the saga. One look at any comic book forum is enough, don’t let the bubble of this forum fool you. Nice point about the giant OW help multiplier too, usually a giant OW (let alone an opening weekend like this, an unprecedented one) can create a snowball effect making the film a must see for almost everyone based on hype alone. Instead this OW seems to be used as an excuse for the legs that we are seeing, something that previous huge OW films like the ones you mention or even TFA avoided with ease, having huge OW AND good to great legs. The only movie that I can think of, that wasn’t a dud like BvS, that faced similar issues is HP:DH2 , all the other huge OW movies had good multipliers.